ATL: IRMA - Models
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txwatcher91
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
With the Euro/UK in pretty good agreement through 144, I would put much more weight to that scenario vs the further north of the GFS/CMC. The Euro/UK do much better with the 500mb pattern which is key here. A faster speed is also more likely since these systems (and waves too) move across at a pretty fast pace under strong ridging.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Well the 12z ECM smashes the northern Leewards. As others have said this is quite alot faster this run which means it has more time under the WSW/W steering currents, thus gets further west. Horrible run for the Caribbean and suspect we all know where this may go....
Storm is developing in the gulf but seems a little slower than the GFS.
Storm is developing in the gulf but seems a little slower than the GFS.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Luis watch out.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
I'll be praying that this model run will be wrong. I would hate to see the islands go through this
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
I don't think it'll make it to FL - trough looking like it'll grab it
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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galaxy401
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Oh dear...that's not good...Looks like a repeat of Earl 2010 maybe.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Looks like the Euro has actually shifted south. Wow horrible run for the NE Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. Again, the system enters the Hebert box.
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AxaltaRacing24
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
blp wrote:Luis watch out.
Well,the good news is 8 days out but the bad news is a very bad trend in past runs from this model and UKMET. Let's see how things evolve in reallity.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
This will be super close as to whether the trough swings it east of the US.
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AxaltaRacing24
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Hour 240 Irma should head NNW and avoid Florida, not sure though that it misses the Carolina's
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