ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jusforsean]

I am wondering the same about the Orlando area seems like people up there are thinking they aren't expecting much. Does anyone have an idea what kind of destruction to expect in west broward Davie Weston area?

[tolakram]

Hurricane Irma: Solar flares could wreak HAVOC on satellites as storm barrels towards US

THE sun has released two huge solar flares, prompting fears they could affect global communications at a time when satellites are desperately needed.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/8 ... satellites

If for some reason the satellites get knocked out, any chance they double up the recon? Or not enough planes & pilots for it?

What the hell is going on?

Nothing important. There is a minor space storm, less than last week, and someone appears to have latched on and spread some false rumors. I keep an eye on aurora activity and space weather just in case it's close enough for us to travel to see it. I meant to flag this earlier but forgot.

You can follow the NOAA Spaceweather feed to track such things.

https://twitter.com/NWSSWPC

[RL3AO]

Hurricane Irma: Solar flares could wreak HAVOC on satellites as storm barrels towards US

THE sun has released two huge solar flares, prompting fears they could affect global communications at a time when satellites are desperately needed.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/8 ... satellites

If for some reason the satellites get knocked out, any chance they double up the recon? Or not enough planes & pilots for it?

What the hell is going on?

You should probably avoid getting your science info from a British tabloid.

[superdeluxe]

Hello everyone,

I've been away for a long time, but I remember there was a section where pro mets etc gave their tracks/thoughts. I can't seem to find that?

Also, it appears that the track shifting east? Just based on looking on the NWS track almost looks like it might graze Florida's southern coast?

[Macrocane]

Any webcams or broadcasts from Turks and Caicos?

[newtotex]

If the eye goes over the everglades, then is centered on Lake Okeechobee, it won't weaken much until north of there other than possible increased wind shear.

That's what I have been thinking the models to not take into account at least AFAIK. The waters of the Everglades and Okeechobee are shallow and warm so it will not really aid in weakening Irma

but you cant disregard land friction it will weaken it regardles..

Very true. I just don't think it will weaken as much as it would if it came inland in the panhandle, for example. Different topography. Land friction will cause weakening, just not to the degree that I think we all hope it would and spare the peninsula

[Hurrilurker]

Weather forecast for Turks & Caicos:

TONIGHT
THU 09/07
LOW 81 F 100% Precip. / 8.46 in
Heavy Rain/Wind. Low 81F. NE winds shifting to SE at 145 to 160 mph.

[meriland29]

[i mg]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rbtop_lalo-animated.gif[/img]

Wow.

[Frank P]

@11:00am it was moving at 290 deg W... @5:00pm it is moving at 285 deg W...

[Aric Dunn]

Finally next plane is in the air.. it continues to improve on satellite. recon might be heading into a stronger hurricane again.

its heading into even higher heat content..

[jasons2k]

Hello everyone,
I've been away for a long time, but I remember there was a section where pro mets etc gave their tracks/thoughts. I can't seem to find that?
Also, it appears that the track shifting east? Just based on looking on the NWS track almost looks like it might graze Florida's southern coast?

Welcome back! Yeah, we no longer maintain the tropical analysis forum. The pro-mets now post here in the specific storm threads. They are pretty busy right now, but some do post updates. Your best guidance, as always, is the NHC official forecast, advisory and discussion.

[superdeluxe]

[im g]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rbtop_lalo-animated.gif[/img]

Wow.

Jesus. All those Caribbean Islands in that NE quadrant.

[dukeblue219]

Hurricane Irma: Solar flares could wreak HAVOC on satellites as storm barrels towards US

THE sun has released two huge solar flares, prompting fears they could affect global communications at a time when satellites are desperately needed.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/8 ... satellites

If for some reason the satellites get knocked out, any chance they double up the recon? Or not enough planes & pilots for it?

They'd do whatever they have to, but if the satellites get knocked out we have bigger problems than just Irma. Seriously. Fortunately, this is a lot of hype from a pretty low-quality tabloid. The solar flare was real, and the CME will be arriving tomorrow, but it's not presently forecast to be anything that threatens continued operation of terrestrial or orbital systems. I won't get too far off-topic here, but this is part of what I do for my day job. I actually worked personally on some of the the radiation tests for GOES-R (GOES-16) so let's hope those 1-minute images keep rolling in!

Anyway, don't be surprised if you northern folks see a little aurora tomorrow or if you do hear of occasional communications disruptions, but odds are most people aren't going to notice this one. Feel free to read a bit more from a better source though: http://spaceweather.com/ or http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

[Sanibel]

We're hearing west shift but we're seeing consistently slightly north of trop points... (???)

[meriland29]

Finally next plane is in the air.. it continues to improve on satellite. recon might be heading into a stronger hurricane again.

Maybe, been checking the DVORAK radar to get a better idea, she seems to maintain well.

[Hurrilurker]

Finally next plane is in the air.. it continues to improve on satellite. recon might be heading into a stronger hurricane again.

I'm going to guess down to ~915. The eye definitely has its mojo back and I see very little structural hangover from the Cuba/Hispaniola brushing.

[Aric Dunn]

Finally next plane is in the air.. it continues to improve on satellite. recon might be heading into a stronger hurricane again.

Maybe, been checking the DVORAK radar to get a better idea, she seems to maintain well.

[i mg]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/bd_lalo-animated.gif[/img]

no where near as ragged as earlier. the CDO is expanding again on the west side and maintain the eye is more stable.

[tolakram]

[i mg]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rbtop_lalo-animated.gif[/img]

Wow.

Please do not link to images directly using IMG tags, this puts a load on the source site. If you want to embed images you need to first copy to an image hosting site like imgur. If you can't do that then just post the link to the image.

Thanks.

[KBBOCA]

Latest tweets from various NWS offices:

NWS Key West:
 https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/905903100292194304




NWS Miami:
 https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/905830997987602432




NWS Melbourne:
 https://twitter.com/NWSMelbourne/status/905903659799760897




Tampa Bay:
 https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/905903477678907393




JAX:
 https://twitter.com/NWSJacksonville/status/905842405680799745




Charleston:
 https://twitter.com/NWSCharlestonSC/status/905902715892629504

[NDG]

I would expect the NHC to move the track westward but not far as west as the UKMET and ECMWF as we know they usually do not like to be too dramatic on a change, it will be gradual as long as the models keep shifting westward.
So I will think that they will have landfall near Key Largo then up just near or just west of Homestead western Dade County then into Lake Okeechobee through the Orlando area into the Jacksonville area or just west of them.
IMO.

I swear I did not hacked into their computers