ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Exalt]

 https://twitter.com/EUStormMap/status/905906902403612672



#eustorm @EUStormMap
Current conditions in The outer Eyewall now affecting Providenciales, Turks And Caicos Islands! Thank you IG@daisyhadfield1 for sharing this
5:33 PM - Sep 7, 2017

That is howling wind if I've ever heard it..

[Michele B]

Getting word that I-75 north is a "parking lot"...

As is 95 and Pike...If leaving prepare for a 12 hr trip min from miami to Ga.

I'll say it again.

Back roads!

[Extratropical94]

Cockburn Town (yellow spot in sat loop) is in the strongest part of Irma right now.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072206
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 09 20170907
215630 1536N 06838W 3923 07742 0422 -150 -447 166014 015 /// /// 03
215700 1539N 06837W 3925 07741 0422 -150 -446 165015 015 /// /// 03
215730 1542N 06837W 3925 07741 0423 -150 -443 165016 016 /// /// 03
215800 1544N 06836W 3925 07741 0423 -151 -440 165016 016 /// /// 03
215830 1547N 06836W 3922 07745 0422 -150 -436 167016 016 /// /// 03
215900 1550N 06836W 3923 07741 0421 -150 -434 170015 016 /// /// 03
215930 1552N 06835W 3923 07742 0422 -149 -440 176014 014 /// /// 03
220000 1555N 06835W 3925 07739 0422 -150 -452 172015 015 /// /// 03
220030 1557N 06834W 3923 07743 0422 -150 -439 177013 014 /// /// 03
220100 1600N 06834W 3925 07742 0423 -153 -422 167014 015 /// /// 03
220130 1603N 06833W 3922 07744 0423 -155 -342 165014 015 /// /// 03
220200 1605N 06833W 3922 07744 0422 -154 -345 171012 014 /// /// 03
220230 1608N 06832W 3926 07737 0421 -151 -384 178013 013 /// /// 03
220300 1610N 06832W 3923 07741 0421 -150 -406 174013 014 /// /// 03
220330 1613N 06831W 3926 07736 0421 -150 -308 170015 015 /// /// 03
220400 1616N 06830W 3923 07742 0421 -151 -364 172015 015 /// /// 03
220430 1618N 06830W 3923 07741 0421 -146 -389 159016 017 /// /// 03
220500 1621N 06829W 3925 07738 0421 -145 -337 159018 018 /// /// 03
220530 1623N 06829W 3923 07741 0420 -145 -371 167018 018 /// /// 03
220600 1626N 06828W 3922 07742 0420 -146 -412 164017 018 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Blinhart]

Are they sampling the Gulf upper air??? We need to have everything that we can have to get a better idea.

[JtSmarts]

For a reference point, at the moment Irma is a little smaller than Jeanne was at Florida landfall.

Jeanne: HWINDS - 70 miles from center/ TSWINDS 205 miles from center
Irma: HWINDS - 70 miles from center/ TSWINDS 185 miles from center

[Jimsot]

This is neat and I did my thing for Spartanburg SC and said no big deal, then I saw it was in knots, now I am unhappy.

I'm usually pretty decisive, but I'm really on the fence about the stay-or-go decision on this one. We in the Jacksonville area, house is three blocks from the beach. We're putting up shutters, have everything organized to load into the cars, and have a hotel reservation near Macon, GA. We also have tons of food and water if we stay, a generator and gas to run it for probably 10 days, etc.

That little gap between our coast and the center of the track is probably giving me more hope than I should have.

Just don't know what to do.

Does this help? Monday - 8am



Edit: I feel a little dirty for hot-linking this image. FYI - This image will update with the forecast data.

[KBBOCA]

Florida now in sight... It's really hard to keep watching this disaster in process... but with so many friends in South Florida, I can't stop watching.

 https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs/status/905916239041658885

[sponger]

Getting word that I-75 north is a "parking lot"...

As is 95 and Pike...If leaving prepare for a 12 hr trip min from miami to Ga.

I'll say it again.

Back roads!

I learned after Floyd, never leave during the day, ever again. Midnight to 1:00 am is my departure time if needed.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072216
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 10 20170907
220630 1629N 06827W 3926 07736 0420 -147 -409 174019 019 /// /// 03
220700 1631N 06827W 3923 07741 0420 -152 -411 172019 020 /// /// 03
220730 1634N 06826W 3923 07741 0420 -153 -427 169018 019 /// /// 03
220800 1636N 06826W 3922 07743 0420 -146 -440 161017 018 /// /// 03
220830 1639N 06825W 3923 07740 0420 -145 -448 158017 018 /// /// 03
220900 1642N 06825W 3923 07739 0420 -145 -447 163016 017 /// /// 03
220930 1644N 06824W 3923 07740 0420 -147 -426 167016 017 /// /// 03
221000 1647N 06823W 3923 07740 0421 -149 -407 168017 017 /// /// 03
221030 1649N 06823W 3923 07743 0422 -150 -413 170016 017 /// /// 03
221100 1652N 06822W 3923 07742 0422 -149 -442 167017 018 /// /// 03
221130 1655N 06822W 3923 07742 0422 -150 -465 173016 017 /// /// 03
221200 1657N 06821W 3923 07743 0422 -150 -470 176014 017 /// /// 03
221230 1700N 06820W 3923 07743 0422 -154 -468 183014 014 /// /// 03
221300 1702N 06820W 3923 07741 0422 -155 -453 180014 014 /// /// 03
221330 1705N 06819W 3924 07741 0422 -153 -435 174014 015 /// /// 03
221400 1708N 06819W 3923 07742 0422 -154 -444 174015 015 /// /// 03
221430 1710N 06818W 3923 07742 0422 -155 -453 169015 016 /// /// 03
221500 1713N 06817W 3925 07740 0422 -155 -453 167017 018 /// /// 03
221530 1715N 06817W 3923 07744 0422 -155 -453 165019 019 /// /// 03
221600 1718N 06816W 3923 07744 0423 -154 -453 172018 019 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

Cockburn Town (yellow spot in sat loop) is in the strongest part of Irma right now.

y

Thats the capital. About 3700 population. If they are in the inner eye.. there likely wont be much left..

[Blown Away]

Irma N of the track for now...

[bahamaswx]

 https://twitter.com/EUStormMap/status/905906902403612672



#eustorm @EUStormMap
Current conditions in The outer Eyewall now affecting Providenciales, Turks And Caicos Islands! Thank you IG@daisyhadfield1 for sharing this
5:33 PM - Sep 7, 2017

I'm not sure of the original source, but I'm pretty sure this is an old, misappropriated video. I spoke with someone in Providenciales about the time this video starting doing the rounds and they claimed it wasn't bad there yet, and given the location of Irma at the time it certainly shouldn't have been as intense as the video shows.

[hipshot]

That Euro run was worse for us here, better for SE FL. Overall, better since the eye avoids the most populous part of the state. Unfortunately It leaves us dirty all the way. Ugh.

I'm not sure you can say it's better for SE FL. Puts Miami and SE FL in the strongest eyewall due to the size of the storm. Look at the wind forecasts here:

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905861946167238656

Well from what I have read here, Irma is about 500 miles wide and Florida just a little less than 200 miles wide. I don't think it matters much which coast you are on if this thing goes
up the spine of Florida.

[Bob3]

909 mbar. My god.

144 kt SMFR, unflagged

Does that mean it's strengthening?

[CryHavoc]

Can someone with greater knowledge of the topography of Florida discuss the threat of a repeat of the Okeechobee Hurricane? Are there levees in place to prevent the storm surge from flooding the neighborhoods around the lake, or is there a potential for flooding associated with that?

PLEASE note that this is not a forecast or something I'm stating that's expected to happen (not trying to start panic/alarm). I'm asking about the infrastructure since 1928, which is almost a century ago. A lot can happen in that time.

[Aric Dunn]

Can someone with greater knowledge of the topography of Florida discuss the threat of a repeat of the Okeechobee Hurricane? Are there levees in place to prevent the storm surge from flooding the neighborhoods around the lake, or is there a potential for flooding associated with that?

Maybr try the south florida water management site ?

[galaxy401]

909 mbar. My god.

144 kt SMFR, unflagged

Does that mean it's strengthening?

That's was from yesterday.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072226
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 11 20170907
221630 1721N 06816W 3923 07746 0424 -153 -457 170018 018 /// /// 03
221700 1723N 06815W 3924 07742 0424 -154 -459 164020 021 /// /// 03
221730 1726N 06814W 3923 07745 0424 -151 -450 163021 022 /// /// 03
221800 1728N 06814W 3923 07744 0422 -150 -458 165021 022 /// /// 03
221830 1731N 06813W 3925 07741 0423 -150 -470 165023 023 /// /// 03
221900 1734N 06813W 3922 07746 0423 -150 -454 164023 024 /// /// 03
221930 1736N 06812W 3924 07741 0423 -150 -443 161023 024 /// /// 03
222000 1739N 06811W 3923 07744 0423 -150 -449 161023 024 /// /// 03
222030 1742N 06811W 3922 07745 0423 -152 -420 160025 026 /// /// 03
222100 1744N 06810W 3922 07746 0423 -151 -400 165025 025 /// /// 03
222130 1747N 06810W 3925 07741 0423 -151 -432 164025 026 /// /// 03
222200 1750N 06809W 3923 07745 0424 -150 -399 162026 027 /// /// 03
222230 1752N 06808W 3922 07746 0424 -150 -403 162026 027 /// /// 03
222300 1755N 06808W 3926 07739 0423 -151 -433 156026 027 /// /// 03
222330 1758N 06807W 3923 07743 0423 -155 -307 160026 027 /// /// 03
222400 1800N 06806W 3923 07744 0423 -150 -351 160027 028 /// /// 03
222430 1803N 06806W 3922 07745 0422 -150 -331 159026 027 /// /// 03
222500 1806N 06805W 3923 07743 0423 -151 -378 159026 026 /// /// 03
222530 1809N 06805W 3922 07746 0424 -150 -446 160025 026 /// /// 03
222600 1811N 06804W 3923 07746 0425 -150 -475 159025 026 /// /// 03
$$
;

[CryHavoc]

Can someone with greater knowledge of the topography of Florida discuss the threat of a repeat of the Okeechobee Hurricane? Are there levees in place to prevent the storm surge from flooding the neighborhoods around the lake, or is there a potential for flooding associated with that?

Maybr try the south florida water management site ?

Mmm, I should have googled first.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is releasing water from Florida's Lake Okeechobee in preparation for Hurricane Irma's expected arrival in the state this weekend.

Spokesman John Campbell said Tuesday the plan is to drain the lake for three days to drop its current level of almost 14 feet.

The corps says Irma could add a foot of water directly to the lake as it passes and then 3 feet of runoff in the coming weeks. The corps tries to keep the lake below 16 feet and worries about the stability of the Hoover Dike, which surrounds the lake, if it exceeds 18 feet.

Most of current dike was built in the 1960s. It averages 30 feet in height. Failures of the original embankments during hurricanes in 1926 and 1928 killed over 3,000 people when waters flooded neighboring towns. About 40,000 people live nearby today.

The dike has been undergoing a $1.7 billion improvement plan that should be finished in the mid-2020s.

http://www.nydailynews.com/newswires/ne ... -1.3469987

That wasn't in place a few days ago when I last thought to check.