ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Janie2006]

One glimmer of silver lining here is the following: historically, a storm that reaches Cat 5 strength in the Atlantic can rarely maintain that level for long periods of time, which is not to say that she wouldn't remain a major hurricane. Hypothetically speaking, of course.

And apparently I can't use grammar today.

[JPmia]

Someone mentioned note of a cat 6, of course speculation.. now, I do know that there have been recorded hurricanes that surpassed 170mph and more, my question is, in the event some system is say, 180mph or so, would the NHC keep it at a cat 5 or...

I believe you know the answer to this question. If not, a simple Google search would help you find it. Look up Saffir Simpson Scale.

[AdamFirst]

Someone mentioned note of a cat 6, of course speculation.. now, I do know that there have been recorded hurricanes that surpassed 170mph and more, my question is, in the event some system is say, 180mph or so, would the NHC keep it at a cat 5 or...

There is nothing higher than Cat 5.

Hurricane Patricia, the eastern Pacific storm in 2015, had sustained winds one point at 215 MPH. Still a Cat 5.

[SouthFLTropics]

Someone mentioned note of a cat 6, of course speculation.. now, I do know that there have been recorded hurricanes that surpassed 170mph and more, my question is, in the event some system is say, 180mph or so, would the NHC keep it at a cat 5 or...

No such thing as a Cat 6...Category 5 is the highest the Saffir Simpson scale goes. And on that topic, after Harvey, there needs to be a serious review during the offseason of the Saffir Simpson scale. We'll save that discussion for another time.

[meriland29]

The t hing that sucks is GFS predicts a cat 3-4 to hit the EC near NY and NE area ON September 11th

[O Town]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/903246174034984960

What I find interesting about that hurricane is that there are 0 deaths.....?

[BobHarlem]

One glimmer of silver lining here is the following: historically, a storm that reaches Cat 5 strength in the Atlantic can rarely maintain that level for long periods of time, which is not to say that she wouldn't remain a major hurricane. Hypothetically speaking, of course.

And apparently I can't use grammar today.

Even if that occurs, the build up of surge from Cat 5 is unreal (See Katrina) and that takes a good while to disperse, long after winds have gone down.

[RL3AO]

One glimmer of silver lining here is the following: historically, a storm that reaches Cat 5 strength in the Atlantic can rarely maintain that level for long periods of time, which is not to say that she wouldn't remain a major hurricane. Hypothetically speaking, of course.

And apparently I can't use grammar today.

I don't think this is a good thing. Irma will have time for multiple eyewall replacements. Each one will make the windfield larger and the storm bigger when it approaches it's western most point.

[Janie2006]

Someone mentioned note of a cat 6, of course speculation.. now, I do know that there have been recorded hurricanes that surpassed 170mph and more, my question is, in the event some system is say, 180mph or so, would the NHC keep it at a cat 5 or...

It remains a Cat 5, unless there was a serious upgrade to the scale that someone failed to mention.

[weathaguyry]

Is there any chance that this could make it to a major by the end of the day?

[Kingarabian]

So who wants to call SSD and have them switch the floater ?

Why can't we they put a Himawari or a GOES16 off Western Africa

[Janie2006]

Even if that occurs, the build up of surge from Cat 5 is unreal (See Katrina) and that takes a good while to disperse, long after winds have gone down.

I know. I was there. Trust.

[Aric Dunn]

Is there any chance that this could make it to a major by the end of the day?

very likely ... next 4 to 6 hours

[SouthFLTropics]

Is there any chance that this could make it to a major by the end of the day?

I think an argument can be made that it is close to being a major right now. End of the day is certainly within grasp.

[Kingarabian]

Is there any chance that this could make it to a major by the end of the day?

Yes. Looks like Aric was too conservative as usual when he issued his "major hurricane in 36hours" statement

[meriland29]

Is there any chance that this could make it to a major by the end of the day?

It skipped cat 1 altogether, what do you think? Look at the eye..

[Weatherboy1]

Well if there's anything good to all of this, it's that Irma is way, way out there still. We could end up with a "fish" depending on what the modelling shows through the weekend. So no need to worry too much this early. Just "watchful waiting" time for now.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/TWCBryan/status/903277961322881024

[RL3AO]

Is there any chance that this could make it to a major by the end of the day?

At this rate I'd be surprised if it didn't.

[Janie2006]

I don't think this is a good thing. Irma will have time for multiple eyewall replacements. Each one will make the windfield larger and the storm bigger when it approaches it's western most point.

True, but then wouldn't we also have to assume that atmospheric conditions remain quite favorable for the storm to do this without impediments *or* (aha!) the system is so strong that it has created its own micro-environment that favors a maintenance of strength?