ATL: IRMA - Models

[tolakram]

when is the next run?

1:45 EDT am/pm

thank you.

are they every 6 hours?

or 12?

12, just twice a day.

GFS is 4 times daily. 11:25 am/pm and 5:25 am/pm

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS ensembles showing somewhat more consensus now compared to 06Z. South Florida appears to be in the bulls eye (mean):

[dukeblue219]

Oh, I stand corrected, I apologize. I apparently can't keep up fast enough. Thank you for informing me.

No problem. This is really the model discussion sub-forum, but check out the recon or main discussion pages if you want the latest (or get it straight from the NHC).

[caneseddy]

12Z GFS ensembles showing somewhat more consensus now compared to 06Z. South Florida appears to be in the bulls eye (mean):

Pretty much all clustered around South Florida ATM.

[TheStormExpert]

12Z GFS ensembles showing somewhat more consensus now compared to 06Z. South Florida appears to be in the bulls eye (mean):

Notice how the ensemble members that have it getting into the SE Gulf have Irmas MSLP weaker verses the ones going into Florida or off the east coast.

[MississippiWx]

East is the trend today. Hardly set in stone, but a little better for Florida. Not much though since the models that miss east don't really miss by more than 25-50 miles and that's just the center itself. Maybe it will keep going east.

[MatthewsRevenge]

I hope for Florida's sake, the storm does goes west of it and just dissipates in the Gulf. I think both Euro and GFS thinks Florida will be heavily impacted either way. So there's some consensus. It's just on the tracking where there's a big difference between them.

[shawn6304]

12Z NAVGEM shifts EAST, now east of SE Florida:

Gator , is that due to a slower storm or a sharper turn or the the ridge/Trough setup different.

[gatorcane]

seems the HWRF has shifted some SW.

[AxaltaRacing24]

East is the trend today. Hardly set in stone, but a little better for Florida. Not much though since the models that miss east don't really miss by more than 25-50 miles and that's just the center itself. Maybe it will keep going east.

Better? The ensembles show us as the bullseye and the GFS/NAM/Uk tracks would still have a very serious impact on the east coast especially. Nothing is looking better sadly. (most of this is just windshield wiping anyways.)

[Raebie]

12Z GFS ensembles showing somewhat more consensus now compared to 06Z. South Florida appears to be in the bulls eye (mean):

Notice how the ensemble members that have it getting into the SE Gulf have Irmas MSLP weaker verses the ones going into Florida or off the east coast.

Probably because it has to travel over more land to get there.

[Michele B]

seems the HWRF has shifted some SW.

How much further south would it need to go to miss the trough picking it up altogether?

I can't imagine anything more frightening than thinking this thing gets into the Gulf!

[TheStormExpert]

East is the trend today. Hardly set in stone, but a little better for Florida. Not much though since the models that miss east don't really miss by more than 25-50 miles and that's just the center itself. Maybe it will keep going east.

I beg to differ! Just because a global model or two has Irma cutting the gap between the Bahamas and Florida's east coast doesn't mean better. In fact Irma's wind field is wider or forecasted to be wider than the state (west coast to east coast) by the time she is over or near us.

[chris_fit]

HWRF is quite a bit SW from the 6Z run...

[Raebie]

I can't imagine anything more frightening than thinking this thing gets into the Gulf!

Imagine it going up the spine of Florida.

[tolakram]

Lets stop parsing words and get back to models please. None if this better talk has any real meaning at this point. About tge only thing it does is start an argument. Thanks.

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[Powellrm]

well. maybe those initially crazy GFS intensity projections weren't too crazy after all. I don't think Irma will quite get there, but she just keeps intensifying with no real impediments or obstacles at this point. Yowza.

[Michele B]

I can't imagine anything more frightening than thinking this thing gets into the Gulf!

Imagine it going up the spine of Florida.

Well, yeah, I'm there. But I meant in light of what TX, LA just went through.

[gatorcane]

To give you an idea how good the EURO has been on Irma...check out the 0-240 hour track it had LAST THURSDAY 12Z! Pretty darn good...:

[AxaltaRacing24]

well. maybe those initially crazy GFS intensity projections weren't too crazy after all. I don't think Irma will quite get there, but she just keeps intensifying with no real impediments or obstacles at this point. Yowza.

This is why I am not surprised about the current intensity. While this storm will not hit 870mb, it still showed that the environment was/is extremely favorable for a serious storm near Fl, the CONUS, and the islands.