ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SootyTern]

For those who don't want to evacuate: you may not get help from the north for several days.

Florida is a peninsula. With the only land routes to the north, they will have to come that way. Problem is that the storm is going in that direction and will remain dangerous at least through Monday or Tuesday. FEMA and private aid will NOT drive through hurricane conditions, so that means outside help may not come until midweek even if they wanted to help sooner.

I'd suggest having at least 7-10 days worth of supplies if staying back, not just 72 hours.

I have supplies for close to a month. Just hope the roof can stay on.

[SoupBone]

Recon's fix on Irma confirms that by looking at the satellite is giving you the impression that she is at a higher latitude by a good .2-.3 of latitude.

Satellite picture when the recon fixed its location which was at 21.1N & 71.75W




URNT12 KNHC 080000
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 07/23:33:40Z
B. 21 deg 07 min N
071 deg 45 min W
C. 700 mb 2377 m
D. 102 kt
E. 122 deg 8 nm
F. 212 deg 120 kt
G. 123 deg 10 nm
H. 920 mb
I. 9 C / 3084 m
J. 18 C / 3044 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 1811A IRMA OB 03
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 146 KT 313 / 17 NM 23:38:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 190 / 11 KT

So she's right on point. It's amazing how good of a job the NHC has done with Irma.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I am a first responder.

Rescued 150+ people with my boat during Harvey.

Treacherous isn't the word.

I go in to help clear roads and fuel desperate folks trapped on the highways.

Nothing selfish.

Done this a dozen times.

On behalf of everyone thank you for the services you provide during these disasters.

[FLpanhandle91]

Child-like bickering in here. Focus on the storm at hand.

[KBBOCA]

Large areas of 3500 CAPE air ahead of Irma and before FL.
Keeping an eye on this.
Also noted earlier, this area is maintaining a persistent Theta-E ridge.
All in association with the hot water funneling out of the GOM thru the Straits.
Forecasted Miami Sounding, just below before landfall, shown below.
Air column saturated top to bottom.
IMHO all the ingredients for intensification up to landfall.

I "liked" this because it's important information and I really appreciate your analysis.
But it's getting harder and harder to actually like anything I'm reading re: the Irma forecast. Like Eric Blake, Irma makes me feel pretty sick to my stomach...

We need a "like the post / hate what I'm seeing" option!

[Bunkertor]

COD MET Loop
http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/ ... verDim=100

reaching sub 900 might not be a stretch ......

Dang!!!!

Could it be heading towards the gulf as well ?

[dgparent]

CNN had a story about a girl looked about 25 with a 5 year old and a 7 month old that was staying put because the house she was in survived Andrew, bad bad move was the consensus

[GCANE]

Large areas of 3500 CAPE air ahead of Irma and before FL.
Keeping an eye on this.
Also noted earlier, this area is maintaining a persistent Theta-E ridge.
All in association with the hot water funneling out of the GOM thru the Straits.
Forecasted Miami Sounding, just below before landfall, shown below.
Air column saturated top to bottom.
IMHO all the ingredients for intensification up to landfall.

I "liked" this because it's important information and I really appreciate your analysis.
But it's getting harder and harder to actually like anything I'm reading re: the Irma forecast. Like Eric Blake, Irma makes me feel pretty sick to my stomach...

We need a "like the post / hate what I'm seeing" option!

I couldn't agree more - thanks.

[KBBOCA]

Good description of storm surge risk...

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/905954419187044352

[SoupBone]

Just an interesting FYI that of course could change tomorrow, but Disney World, Universal and Sea World aren't shutting down the parks...yet.

http://www.wdbj7.com/content/news/Orlandos-major-amusement-parks-still-operating-despite-Irma-approaching-443099223.html

[Hurrilurker]

If it's going to make a run at 900, later tonight when it's between Hispaniola and Cuba is probably its best chance. Maybe later between Cuba a Florida too but the distance is small, there's a lot of stuff going on with the turn and land interaction, and possibly increasing shear.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080046
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 25 20170908
003630 2023N 07251W 6967 03081 9999 +075 +022 325052 054 041 003 03
003700 2024N 07250W 6963 03083 9982 +084 +024 323052 053 043 004 00
003730 2025N 07248W 6971 03069 9993 +072 +020 327055 056 044 004 03
003800 2027N 07247W 6958 03076 9975 +081 +020 320056 058 043 006 00
003830 2028N 07246W 6968 03062 9963 +087 +020 316060 062 044 004 00
003900 2029N 07245W 6963 03064 9959 +086 +022 315058 060 048 005 00
003930 2030N 07243W 6963 03058 9951 +088 +013 318057 058 048 005 00
004000 2031N 07242W 6965 03053 9947 +090 +011 318059 061 050 005 00
004030 2033N 07241W 6967 03047 9946 +085 +013 317062 063 052 008 00
004100 2034N 07239W 6966 03044 9944 +083 +010 317064 065 054 008 00
004130 2035N 07238W 6969 03034 9940 +081 +010 321067 070 054 008 00
004200 2036N 07237W 6966 03031 9921 +091 +011 321069 070 054 006 00
004230 2037N 07236W 6964 03027 9907 +095 +015 319071 072 055 005 00
004300 2039N 07235W 6963 03022 9912 +086 +015 316073 075 056 005 00
004330 2040N 07233W 6967 03010 9892 +095 +013 317077 079 057 008 03
004400 2041N 07232W 6963 03000 9873 +100 +012 312079 079 059 007 00
004430 2042N 07231W 6971 02983 9895 +073 +013 312081 083 060 016 03
004500 2043N 07229W 6959 02986 9881 +072 +030 316085 091 063 018 03
004530 2044N 07228W 6970 02955 9861 +074 +037 324084 090 067 016 03
004600 2046N 07227W 6964 02952 9842 +079 +038 320089 091 070 016 00
$$
;

[gatorcane]

Is it me or is Irma slowing down some?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/905955465242214402




This kind of tweet from John Morales - a personal appeal to his audience - reminds me a lot of Gary Szatkowski - the rather infamous met from the Mount Holly NWS office during Sandy who included this personal plea in the NWS official briefing:

"If you are still reluctant (to evacuate), think about your loved ones," he wrote. "Think about the emergency responders who will be unable to reach you when you make the panicked phone call to be rescued, and think about the rescue/recovery teams who will recover your remains if you do not survive."

He even included his cell phone number so anyone who evacuated could call him if he was wrong.

"If you think the storm is over-hyped and exaggerated, please err on the side of caution," he wrote. "You can call me up on Friday and yell at me all you want. … I will tell you in advance, I will be very happy that you are alive & well, no matter how much you yell at me."

[Jimsot]

The latest EWRC will probably fix that.

For a reference point, at the moment Irma is a little smaller than Jeanne was at Florida landfall.

Jeanne: HWINDS - 70 miles from center/ TSWINDS 205 miles from center
Irma: HWINDS - 70 miles from center/ TSWINDS 185 miles from center

[dhweather]

Things that happen in the atmosphere happen in the ocean as well, just not as quickly. That said, if Irma is "only" a category 4 wind wise at landfall, the surge will most likely still be as bad, or very close to it, as Irma as a category 5. People really need to ignore models and charts at this point, you have a category 5 hurricane coming for you in South Florida.

Katrina was a Cat 3 on her Mississippi landfall, with a 28 foot storm surge.

Fortunately we evacuated for Katrina, so my family did not have to endure the two weeks without electricity. No injuries, no deaths.

If you are reading this, and considering whether to evacuate or not, when in doubt, get out!

[plasticup]

Recon approaching the eye again

[lisa0825]

I am a first responder.

Rescued 150+ people with my boat during Harvey.

Treacherous isn't the word.

I go in to help clear roads and fuel desperate folks trapped on the highways.

Nothing selfish.

Done this a dozen times.

As a resident of the greater Houston area, I sincerely thank you for your service!

[SEASON_CANCELED]

For those who don't want to evacuate: you may not get help from the north for several days.

Florida is a peninsula. With the only land routes to the north, they will have to come that way. Problem is that the storm is going in that direction and will remain dangerous at least through Monday or Tuesday. FEMA and private aid will NOT drive through hurricane conditions, so that means outside help may not come until midweek even if they wanted to help sooner.

I'd suggest having at least 7-10 days worth of supplies if staying back, not just 72 hours.

I have supplies for close to a month. Just hope the roof can stay on.

It wont in a Cat 4/5 man. I would probably get out of there. Even Richard bransons house was obliterated and he had a concrete roof engineered for storms but good luck. I would suggest stocking up on Visqueen now and get some extra truss 2 x 6 beams and bracing to join to the framing atleast your roof wouldnt fly away.

[txrok]

I thought the FL governor was having gas escorted in? I do realize though that takes time. During one of our past hurricanes on Gulf Coast, they were literally ON I-45 bringing people gas and putting it into their vehicles. Don't panic - look into this and see if they may be doing this.

I am seeing alot of tweets out of miami about people not being able to leave because there is still no gas. Seems like panic is setting in.

People should shelter in place or go to a shelter
...all this driving around florida and Georgia is ridiculous..fyi, neatly everyone preps and stays as advised by authorities