ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

8:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 5
Location: 13.9°N 83.4°W
Moving: NW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Contrast this to 5 AM with it at 13.3N, 83.3W and 1004 mb. So, 5 mb stronger in just 3 hours and movement of only 0.1 W while moving 0.6 N. Comments?

On radar it appears is moving almost due north but not quiet.
Regarding the pressure because of Puerto Cabezas reporting a pressure of 1001 mb is why they dropped the pressure down to 999 mb.

METAR for: MNPC (Puerto Cabezas Arpt, --, NK)
Text: MNPC 051108Z 09022KT 1000 +RA FEW014CB BKN16TCU 25/24 Q1001 CB/W TCU/NW/N/NE/E/SE/S
Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C ( 75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.56 inches Hg (1001.0 mb)
Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 25 MPH (22 knots; 11.3 m/s)
Visibility: 0.62 sm ( 1.00 km)
Ceiling: at least 12,000 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1400 feet AGL
Weather: +RA (heavy rain)

[NDG]

Katrina like shift in the forecast track by the NHC....GFS looks to be correct with the low forming in the Florida Straights. Looks like I'll start getting the yard stuff put away.....MGC

06z HWRF, usually on the strong side of guidance, has a 970 mb cane landfalling just east of NO.

Actually it has landfall just south of Nola, tracking over the eastern section of the city.

[Blown Away]

Intensity guidance mostly keeping Nate at TS strength...

[otowntiger]

While I agree the 18Z GFS looks out to lunch, we have to be careful not to completely discount it. A model forecast is not wrong until actually proven wrong after the fact. Maybe the track is off but the intensity is close or vice versa?? Way too early to get into specifics here. We don't even have a named storm.

Hmmmm

Annnnd we still don't know if either (or any) of them are 'right' or not since the storm is still 3 days away. LOL.

[Big Easy Breeze]

How about that, the Euro now looks more like the crazy GFS runs.

What is crazy?

[otowntiger]

While the tracks are reasonable, I still find the strength forecasts from both models to be an utter mess

Given the current look of the system and its trek towards Nic/Hon I feel there is a distinct possibility the would-be Nate never recovers enough to take advantage of the conditions ahead of it. Frankly,are the condidtions going to be that ideal. Models have done a poor job in every aspect to this storm. Fluctuating between a weak storm with hostile environment, to a strong storm with almost ideal conditions aloft. We all hang our hats on the newest run of almost every model, like the newest suite of runs is now right and the last ones that we though were right are now wrong. That is why this is so fun. I can guarantee this...Nate will form or not form and go to LA or FL as a wave,TS or H. I'm quite sure of this. No matter what comes of Nate, he will not change his track or intensity based on 0z,6z,12z,18z changes in model runs.

I think its early to say any model has done a bad job when essentially nothing has happened in real life with this storm yet, right? Most models had it doing what it is doing now. I don't think we can say one or the other in analyzing model accuracy until the storm has made it to its ultimate destination. I do understand what you are saying in that they are at this point inconsistent with their forecasted track and intensity but its all still coming into focus. All too often we are guilty at presuming that a 5 day forecast should be written in stone and if it changes it is a failure.

[LarryWx]

8:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 5
Location: 13.9°N 83.4°W
Moving: NW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Contrast this to 5 AM with it at 13.3N, 83.3W and 1004 mb. So, 5 mb stronger in just 3 hours and movement of only 0.1 W while moving 0.6 N. Comments?

On radar it appears is moving almost due north but not quiet.
Regarding the pressure because of Puerto Cabezas reporting a pressure of 1001 mb is why they dropped the pressure down to 999 mb.

1. We'll need to see if it shifts back to a more NW movement, which some models hint at. In the meantime, it is at 13.9N, 83.4W as of 8 AM. That is technically only right at the coast per this map:

http://go.grolier.com/map?id=mgam027&pid=go

From this point, will he turn more inland or will he just skirt the coast? The furthest east Nic. and Hond go is only 83.3W. If he moves NNW from here, he would just skirt the coast.

2. The 6Z GFS had it only down to 1002 mb as of 8AM while the Euro had 1003 and the CMC 1004. Is it of much significance that the main models are too weak by 3-5 mb?

[HurricaneBelle]

Folks, it's the Florida STRAITS, not "Straights". No "gh".

[SoupBone]

There's still 40-50kts of shear in front of Nate, and all the way through the GoM. I thought this was supposed to lessen.

[jlauderdal]

Folks, it's the Florida STRAITS, not "Straights". No "gh".

i though it was strates, learn something everyday

[PSUHiker31]

There's still 40-50kts of shear in front of Nate, and all the way through the GoM. I thought this was supposed to lessen.

The atmosphere is not a static object

[AxaltaRacing24]

There's still 40-50kts of shear in front of Nate, and all the way through the GoM. I thought this was supposed to lessen.

Shear is always changing.

[SoupBone]

There's still 40-50kts of shear in front of Nate, and all the way through the GoM. I thought this was supposed to lessen.

The atmosphere is not a static object

I clearly understand that, but yesterday, today was supposed to see significant decrease in shear. That isn't happening yet, to further my point.

[NDG]

There's still 40-50kts of shear in front of Nate, and all the way through the GoM. I thought this was supposed to lessen.

https://i.imgur.com/tGFDmTO.gif

Not until that UL trough moves to the west over the next couple of days.

[stormlover2013]

one thing I do notice is ridge is getting stronger in Florida on each model run!!

[NDG]

There's still 40-50kts of shear in front of Nate, and all the way through the GoM. I thought this was supposed to lessen.

The atmosphere is not a static object

I clearly understand that, but yesterday, today was supposed to see significant decrease in shear. That isn't happening yet, to further my point.

I don't know where you got that information from but both the GFS and Euro showed moderate to strong southerly shear over the Caribbean for this morning two days ago.
Shear is not supposed to drop until tomorrow morning over the NW Caribbean.

[Steve]

Morning Recap and so far of the major models - at least the last 2 days - CMC and NAVGEM have shown the closest solutions to what's being shown now though they were a bit east of the current landfall solutions and fading off NE rather than coming up North. I watched Joe B this morning and he's basically saying what many of us were talking about yesterday. 1) There's a complicated pattern. 2) The system south of SFL will move west, north of Nate and eventually help draw Nate farther to the west. He's got it around 55 knots or so in the mid Gulf so higher end Tropical Storm. I think he said he felt like it would landfall near or at Cat 1 status, but I don't exactly remember.

NAM 12km 06Z - Landfalls Barataria Bay (Jefferson/Lafourche Parishes, LA) at 63 hours or valid for Saturday afternoon around 4pm (looks like a tropical storm).

NAM 32km 06Z - Same but a little stronger (looks like a tropical storm)

NAM 3km 06Z - Runs to 60 hours, small storm, tight isobars. Looks like a tropical storm.

HMON 06Z - Landfalls around Empire, LA also in Barataria Bay but is much stronger than the NAM suite (982mb) and is a bit slower landfalling around 75-78 hours or valid 1am Sunday at 982mb. HMON doesn't have as much interference with the Yucatan or other landfall interaction which is why it's a bit stronger.

HWRF 06Z - Landfalls around 69 hours (10pm Saturday) at about 970 mb. HWRF misses the Yucatan but does go inland in Nicaragua for a little while. It's faster than the NAM but slower than the HMON.

NAVGEM 06Z - Landfalls around Morgan City as a pretty strong Tropical Storm at 78 hours (valid Sunday 7am).

CMC 00Z - Dueling centers between the systems keeps Nate fairly weak and landfalls Nate around 72 hours followed by the West Gulf system around 102 hours in SW LA. It should be noted that the heaviest weather with Nate happens after landfall in SELA/SWMS.

GFS 00Z - GFS sort of loses it as it brings it up to the SC LA Coast.

ECMWF 00Z - Landfalls Sunday day/afternoon as probably a high end TS or Cat 1 (990s)

[ConvergenceZone]

So glad Nate is expected to move rapidly. I'd hate to think what the intensity forecast would have been if this was a slow moving storm

[Dean4Storms]

Let's not forget the IV Gulfstream and FL Balloon launchings haven't been done yet and models fed so these final destinations and intensities could swing some more.

[SoupBone]

Let's not forget the IV Gulfstream and FL Balloon launchings haven't been done yet and models fed so these final destinations and intensities could swing some more.

Swing back east you think or west toward Texas?