ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080056
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 26 20170908
004630 2047N 07226W 6975 02927 9825 +081 +042 319086 090 072 014 00
004700 2048N 07225W 6967 02921 9803 +086 +037 315087 089 092 032 03
004730 2049N 07223W 6981 02889 9801 +073 +040 312092 102 082 042 03
004800 2050N 07222W 6932 02928 9769 +078 +049 321093 103 086 025 00
004830 2051N 07221W 6980 02865 9736 +095 +052 327078 093 093 014 00
004900 2052N 07220W 6944 02872 9701 +099 +056 321078 081 092 014 00
004930 2054N 07219W 6964 02831 9662 +119 +057 311077 081 091 014 00
005000 2055N 07217W 6967 02808 9627 +131 +055 308083 084 094 008 00
005030 2056N 07216W 6959 02793 9595 +137 +050 308087 088 093 008 00
005100 2057N 07215W 6966 02759 9571 +133 +053 309090 091 088 003 03
005130 2059N 07213W 6970 02727 9537 +138 +053 307093 095 087 000 03
005200 2100N 07212W 6966 02697 9494 +143 +050 306098 100 086 000 03
005230 2101N 07211W 6972 02643 9449 +143 +050 307104 107 091 003 00
005300 2102N 07209W 6953 02614 9405 +126 +070 306104 107 091 006 00
005330 2104N 07208W 6971 02527 9341 +125 +086 302093 104 097 017 00
005400 2105N 07207W 6963 02500 9272 +153 +087 301073 085 090 006 00
005430 2106N 07205W 6966 02457 9229 +159 +087 298046 065 061 003 03
005500 2108N 07205W 6972 02434 9207 +166 +086 320019 032 029 002 03
005530 2109N 07203W 6974 02433 9199 +173 +084 023005 012 /// /// 03
005600 2110N 07201W 6977 02423 9195 +175 +081 144010 014 016 001 00
$$

Cat5 hurricane with hardly major hurricane winds in southwest quad.
;

[KBBOCA]

An update from the NWS Director:
 https://twitter.com/NWSDirector/status/905874352947724289




his key message:
 https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/905955568652836866




"I can’t stress enough how vital it is for everyone within/near the predicted track to take this storm seriously & take every precaution"

[plasticup]

Recon approaching the eye again. Last pass found 917 mb, 139 kts.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I thought the FL governor was having gas escorted in? I do realize though that takes time. During one of our past hurricanes on Gulf Coast, they were literally ON I-45 bringing people gas and putting it into their vehicles. Don't panic - look into this and see if they may be doing this.

I am seeing alot of tweets out of miami about people not being able to leave because there is still no gas. Seems like panic is setting in.

People should shelter in place or go to a shelter
...all this driving around florida and Georgia is ridiculous..fyi, neatly everyone preps and stays as advised by authorities

I got reprimanded on here for criticizing the knee jerk panic reaction on tuesday i thought it was too early hit the oh crap button. Just will say when they did that i knew every slack jawed yokel from Miami to Destin with an SUV, 12 gas jugs and an ATV would fill up and there would not be gas for evacuations and lots of people are going to have to ride out the storm Saturday unfortunately. Rationing should of been put into place on tuesday.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Storm appears to be slowing down. Is that the case? Over the last 5 hours it is not moving much.

[JaxGator]

Strong words from NWS Jax in their latest briefing on Irma. They're expecting for Irma to be a Category 2 by the time it gets to Jacksonville and Northeast Florida per the latest forecast track. Winds of 100-110. Gusts to 120. Storm Surge would still be big concern on the beaches and the rivers with 8-10 inches of rain possible. Georgia would have a strong Cat 1 with Cat 2 gusts. Can't believe that Irma could still bring some hefty damage here after what it could do to South Florida..

http://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefi ... iefing.pdf

[txrok]

Florida is less than 1/4 the size of Texas - most of the Gulf Coast was impacted - most of the ENTIRE COAST as well as quite away inland - impacted area was probably the size of Florida alone, so not seeing that your comparison makes much sense. I've seen the map of impacted counties.

I've seen several estimates coming in for Harvey around the $200 Billion mark. They are predicting that it will easily surpass the Katrina figure.

We have a thread in Talkin' Tropics. Last update I saw was $80B with more to come. 200 could happen but would be beyond the end of a legit range. Point is Maue was being a kind of a chump by posting that and drawing attention to a tweet and stoking paranoia among an excitable fanbase. I'll leave it at that.

My point to her and now to you is you really think even if Harvey becomes our most costly storm in history at 200B, do you really think we can exceed that with a like event by a factor of 5? It's not in any way realistic, and I'm glad that other met called him out on his Bull.

A Cat 5 storm? Tearing apart HOW many buildings? Tearing apart how much infrastructure? Displacing how many Floridians?

This isn't like TX, where it was a portion of the state. This thing wants to go up the ENTIRE LENGTH of the state, AND wipe out the keys...a huge tourist attraction....AND Orlando is thrown into the mix, with all its tourist attractions.

IDK. I think I'll stand by my estimate that 1T isn't outrageous.

[KBBOCA]

Model consensus seems even stronger. Even GFS moved west...

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/905959128467730432

[KBBOCA]

Goodness...!

 https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/905959664508121089




 https://twitter.com/FLGovScott/status/905952975436251136

[Kingslayer1254]

Can someone please explain to me how this system is to turn right .. I mean can something this big just hit the brakes and turn right??

Absolutely it can. A strong cyclone tends to move poleward. A blocking high pressure ridge to the north is the reason they move west or northwest in the Atlantic basin. If the ridge get's weakened,the storm will seek it out and move more north.

Thanks for the explanation, appreciate it.

[KBBOCA]

AirBnB activating an emergency response program to help people find shelter

 https://twitter.com/FLGovScott/status/905953563532288000

[tolakram]

I got reprimanded on here for criticizing the knee jerk panic reaction on tuesday i thought it was too early hit the oh crap button. Just will say when they did that i knew every slack jawed yokel from Miami to Destin with an SUV, 12 gas jugs and an ATV would fill up and there would not be gas for evacuations and lots of people are going to have to ride out the storm Saturday unfortunately. Rationing should of been put into place on tuesday.

This is your opinion and is not fact so just can it.

[RL3AO]

Official NWS Forecast for peak wind gusts.

[SunnyThoughts]

Yes even schools in the far now fla panhandle are closed friday and Monday. Going to use them for shelters and staging areas for supplies,

[txrok]

While high winds can be problematic - one of the main concerns to keep in mind is the accompanying tornadoes. With Harvey those were just popping all around. While they were lower ranked 0 or 1's -- they were VERY, very numerous. I really don't think the weather folks could even keep up with it. Was insanity. Get your largest closets prepared as shelters. Stock with things you may need while confined - and put within reach.

Here's the latest briefing from NWS Jax. They're expecting for Irma to be a Category 2 by the time it gets to Jacksonville and Northeast Florida per the latest forecast track. Winds of 100-110. Gusts to 120. Storm Surge would still be big concern on the beaches and the rivers. Georgia would have a strong Cat 1 with Cat 2 gusts. Can't believe that Irma could still bring some hefty damage here after what it could do to South Florida..

http://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefi ... iefing.pdf

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080106
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 27 20170908
005630 2110N 07201W 6977 02423 9191 +180 +080 155021 025 022 001 00
005700 2111N 07158W 6961 02450 9198 +177 +082 160033 036 033 000 00
005730 2112N 07156W 6964 02456 9217 +168 +083 160043 046 042 001 00
005800 2113N 07155W 6964 02468 9230 +168 +077 162063 073 060 001 00
005830 2115N 07153W 6965 02494 9271 +154 +079 161090 098 071 003 03
005900 2116N 07152W 6963 02540 9350 +120 +080 159119 130 110 006 03
005930 2118N 07150W 6989 02578 9435 +106 +072 153138 140 116 027 00
010000 2119N 07149W 6962 02668 9494 +110 +064 151132 136 112 008 00
010030 2120N 07148W 6963 02713 9543 +110 +059 149128 129 102 002 00
010100 2122N 07146W 6966 02748 9576 +118 +054 148124 127 102 000 03
010130 2123N 07145W 6967 02780 9608 +124 +051 147120 122 103 000 00
010200 2124N 07144W 6964 02813 9644 +118 +053 146118 120 103 003 00
010230 2125N 07143W 6967 02832 9664 +121 +054 145115 117 105 006 00
010300 2127N 07141W 6969 02845 9705 +101 +057 147109 114 105 010 00
010330 2128N 07140W 6977 02867 9755 +085 +056 144119 124 103 025 00
010400 2129N 07139W 6958 02905 9776 +084 +052 142122 123 093 019 00
010430 2130N 07137W 6963 02917 9798 +080 +048 142121 123 094 019 00
010500 2131N 07136W 6973 02926 9822 +079 +044 143123 124 091 019 00
010530 2133N 07135W 6966 02945 9836 +078 +041 145120 123 086 024 00
010600 2134N 07134W 6967 02956 9850 +079 +044 145118 122 083 025 00
$$
;

If not for the 139, 137 knt smrfs in the northwestern quad I wouldn't believe this is a cat5.

[drewschmaltz]

I think this will ramp up significantly just before landfall if the structure is there. My reasoning is the Barbado station showed a 3 or 4 degree drop in water temps from Irma. The gulf stream just off the tip of FL is warmer and will be replenishing the fuel source. Like I've said before, the atmospheric conditions that cause the turn north could also act as a strong outflow.

In fact, I think the record length that Irma has maintained this strength is due to it following a portion of the gulf stream.

I have a question as a resident of Orlando... If Irma landfalls as a Cat 5 w/ 185MPH winds and follows the forecast path, will Orlando see the same winds it saw with Charlie. For reference, the sustained winds in Orlando were 90 MPH.

[plasticup]

917.8 mbar, but only 121 knot winds so far

Nothing stronger on second pass. Data so far definitely favors weakening.

[txrok]

Not sure if you were talking to me, but I did not state any 'opinion'. I can attest for the fact that they were filling up people's gas tanks in I-45 Houston to Dallas - because my son was one that got filled up while he was en route to our house!

I thought the FL governor was having gas escorted in? I do realize though that takes time. During one of our past hurricanes on Gulf Coast, they were literally ON I-45 bringing people gas and putting it into their vehicles. Don't panic - look into this and see if they may be doing this.

I got reprimanded on here for criticizing the knee jerk panic reaction on tuesday i thought it was too early hit the oh crap button. Just will say when they did that i knew every slack jawed yokel from Miami to Destin with an SUV, 12 gas jugs and an ATV would fill up and there would not be gas for evacuations and lots of people are going to have to ride out the storm Saturday unfortunately. Rationing should of been put into place on tuesday.

This is your opinion and is not fact so just can it.

[Aric Dunn]

Official NWS Forecast for peak wind gusts.

lol..

the 72 and 88 kt wind colors look too close in color to 150 kt winds lol.. threw me off ..