ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bocadude85]

This is probably a stupid question and I'm sure I already know the answer but here it goes. My parents live in Boca Raton and have boarded up all their 2nd Floor windows and all first floor east facing windows, however they do not have any protection for 6 sets of sliding glass doors in the back of the house which faces southeast...they plan to stay in the house for the storm...does anyone see any possible way that they will be safe in the house?

[meriland29]

I second that question about EWRC completion. Its this her main reason for her slow weakness?

[RL3AO]

Looking at a little climatology. I could not find 1 storm that moved W above the big islands and made a NW turn @23N/79W and then moved in a general NNW motion all the way a to above 36N... There were a few that moved up from the Caribbean and moved NNW up the state... Seems Irma may follow a unique track... There were a couple that continued on a WNW movement to SE GOM then recurved, like Donna...

We already know it was a unique track. People were using these climo maps 10 days to argue why it was impossible for Irma to reach the US.

[Aric Dunn]

If the outer eyewall is as strong as the inner, does that mean the EWRC is almost finished?

typically... though the inner eyewall has to be completely gone

[eastcoastFL]

This is probably a stupid question and I'm sure I already know the answer but here it goes. My parents live in Boca Raton and have boarded up all their 2nd Floor windows and all first floor east facing windows, however they do not have any protection for 6 sets of sliding glass doors in the back of the house which faces southeast...they plan to stay in the house for the storm...does anyone see any possible way that they will be safe in the house?

They could still be safe for sure but the problem is there are also a ton of risks too. Try and convince them to leave if you can. My grandmother is in Boynton and stubborn but I finally convinced her to go to a shelter today. There's still time for them to head north also.

[wxman57]

I'm not quite sure you experienced 90 mph with charley in Orlando... probably more like 75 or high end tropical storm! If I recall the max dead center reading on the s side of town was 80!

For Irma if y'all get the dirty side it'll probably be 110ish, so just hope you only get the backside...

The Orlando airport (MCO) reported 69kt wind with gusts to 91kts in Charley. Orlando could see winds as strong or a little stronger with Irma.

[Kingarabian]

Looking at a little climatology. I could not find 1 storm that moved W above the big islands and made a NW turn @23N/79W and then moved in a general NNW motion all the way a to above 36N... There were a few that moved up from the Caribbean and moved NNW up the state... Seems Irma may follow a unique track... There were a couple that continued on a WNW movement to SE GOM then recurved, like Donna...

We already know it was a unique track. People were using these climo maps 10 days to argue why it was impossible for Irma to reach the US.

I recall people saying it was tough to get a CONUS landfall due to climo vs them saying it was impossible.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080216
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 34 20170908
020630 2220N 07328W 6965 03132 0023 +096 +012 050063 065 045 002 00
020700 2219N 07326W 6966 03125 0029 +089 +015 050066 067 044 005 00
020730 2218N 07325W 6963 03127 0040 +079 +017 052069 071 046 027 00
020800 2216N 07324W 6973 03110 0049 +067 +019 057075 080 048 025 00
020830 2215N 07323W 6972 03110 0036 +068 +029 058075 080 044 029 00
020900 2214N 07322W 6973 03097 0031 +069 +036 066075 082 041 030 03
020930 2213N 07320W 6974 03087 0029 +066 +032 068078 087 037 034 03
021000 2212N 07319W 6953 03125 0027 +074 +016 061070 074 042 005 00
021030 2211N 07318W 6970 03101 0014 +083 +022 062080 084 044 005 03
021100 2210N 07317W 6965 03102 9993 +095 +023 061081 083 043 005 00
021130 2209N 07316W 6966 03099 9984 +100 +025 059079 081 045 005 00
021200 2208N 07315W 6965 03095 9979 +100 +028 059077 080 046 005 00
021230 2207N 07314W 6963 03095 9986 +092 +027 057079 080 049 006 00
021300 2206N 07312W 6965 03089 9989 +086 +025 056078 079 051 008 00
021330 2205N 07311W 6964 03086 9989 +083 +030 056080 082 053 011 00
021400 2204N 07310W 6966 03080 9986 +080 +031 056081 083 056 012 03
021430 2203N 07309W 6967 03076 9976 +087 +027 057080 083 062 012 03
021500 2202N 07308W 6966 03073 9974 +086 +020 059078 079 057 009 00
021530 2201N 07307W 6966 03069 9973 +082 +019 058080 081 057 009 00
021600 2159N 07305W 6968 03062 9972 +080 +017 055079 080 057 009 00
$$

[eastcoastFL]

Looking at a little climatology. I could not find 1 storm that moved W above the big islands and made a NW turn @23N/79W and then moved in a general NNW motion all the way a to above 36N... There were a few that moved up from the Caribbean and moved NNW up the state... Seems Irma may follow a unique track... There were a couple that continued on a WNW movement to SE GOM then recurved, like Donna...

We already know it was a unique track. People were using these climo maps 10 days to argue why it was impossible for Irma to reach the US.

I recall that as well. They were trying to say no storm in her position at that time had ever reached Florida. The real answer is no storm had been in that position with the unique set up that we have right now with the ridge and short wave etc. Thank God they don't forecast based on old maps alone.

[Kingarabian]

Did any of the islands that Irma made landfall/pass closed to report 160-185mph winds? Or did they lack the needed instruments to do so?

[ozonepete]

The southern portion of Irma will pass over very high mountains before it turns right into southern Florida.

The highest mountain ranges in Cuba are confined to the SE Tip, near Guantanamo. The rest of Cuba is relatively flat. There is a smaller range in central Cuba, but mostly along the southern coast, and it's not very high.

Yeah those central mountains, the Escambray range, are only 4,000 feet high, but if the NHC track pans out, a large portion of Irma's southern flank, about 20-30%, will be blowing over land just before the right turn into Florida, and that may be enough surface disruption to take it down some. Miami's worst hurricanes, including the 1926 monster and Andrew, have come from the east, not the south, where there's no land interaction at all, so there's some hope. At least we have a little hope here.

[Kingarabian]

The southern portion of Irma will pass over very high mountains before it turns right into southern Florida.

The highest mountain ranges in Cuba are confined to the SE Tip, near Guantanamo. The rest of Cuba is relatively flat. There is a smaller range in central Cuba, but mostly along the southern coast, and it's not very high.

Yeah those central mountains, the Escambray range, are only 4,000 feet high, but if the NHC track pans out, a large portion of Irma's southern flank, about 20-30%, will be blowing over land just before the right turn into Florida, and that may be enough surface disruption to take it down some. Miami's worst hurricanes, including the 1926 monster and Andrew, have come from the east, not the south, so there's some hope. At least we have a little hope here.

Great point. It would be better for the Florida folks for the UKMET forecast to verify (track over Cuba), although not so good for Cubans...

[smithtim]

so recon showing nearly 35 miles of 100 + mph winds.. thats alot..

Yeah I saw that pretty crazy... reading that recon had to do the old hand calculation 1 minute of latitude = 1 nautical mile

[Aric Dunn]

very strong winds for so far away.... downburst likely in a outer band ? however its a pretty large swath for a downburst..

[drewschmaltz]

Looking at a little climatology. I could not find 1 storm that moved W above the big islands and made a NW turn @23N/79W and then moved in a general NNW motion all the way a to above 36N... There were a few that moved up from the Caribbean and moved NNW up the state... Seems Irma may follow a unique track... There were a couple that continued on a WNW movement to SE GOM then recurved, like Donna...

Where did you get that map? I'd like to see if a hurricane ever lost strength in the waters between Cuba and FL.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wouldn't be surprised to see the eye significantly expand overnight as the EWRC wraps up, as that's a huge eyewall on microwave imagery. Looks like a small portion of the inner eyewall is still stubbornly clinging on.

[SoupBone]

I'm just hoping for even a little eastern turn on this thing. Some last minute saving turn. What's the initial expected Florida landfall?

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/bill_line/status/905979703886053380

[AubreyStorm]

Governor Scott canceled all Florida schools tomorrow and Monday!!!

Well yeah. Since the entire state is prepping or leaving, that makes sense.

As per NHC, but ........

The initial motion remains at 285/16kt, and Jose will continue to
be steered by a well established subtropical ridge. It should not
reach the ridge axis until about 36-48 hours, at which point the
ridge begins to erode a bit and Jose may turn a bit more toward the
northwest and eventually the north

[AutoPenalti]

10:25pm, still moving at 5-10mph, moved about another 8 miles or so, we are a bit north of Boca Raton nearing the WPB county line.