ATL: IRMA - Models

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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7341 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:01 pm

Not buying this run. It was way too far north.
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7342 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:02 pm

mcheer23 wrote:Now GFS misses FL? What.


Misses south FL quite a bit to the east this run. If it verified GREAT news for South Florida. By no means can we celebrate yet of course.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7343 Postby meriland29 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:02 pm

It is heading NE now at 108
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7344 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:03 pm

It's going get blocked from OTS
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7345 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:04 pm

Stronger Jose.. Farther East?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7346 Postby Raebie » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:05 pm

It's not going OTS. It's going right up the coast. GFS is determined to take out hy Hilton Head condo.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7347 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:05 pm

Yeah, I don't buy this more east turn with the GFS. Unless we start seeing this with the Euro tonight and the GFS 0z run...then maybe.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7348 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:05 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7349 Postby meriland29 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:06 pm

this is what she is dealing with...okay, she si still heading N/NE

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_20.png
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7350 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:06 pm

There is about a 300 mile difference between the 12Z Euro and 18Z GFS in 120 hrs. GFS showing a faster track (and an earlier turn to the north) than the Euro.
Last edited by HurricaneFrances04 on Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7351 Postby meriland29 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:07 pm

It looks like that ridge over the US is not moving fast enough to the east to do what it does to Irma.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7352 Postby OntarioEggplant » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:07 pm

EPS goes west, GFS goes east. Looks like we will need some more upper level sampling over the US
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7353 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:07 pm

tolakram wrote:https://i.imgur.com/g4kkBaj.png


Being on the west side, something like this is not that bad for SE FL. Wow I hope the GFS is right. Talk about a trough saving SE FL at the last second! Not getting my hopes up though, need the ECMWF to align.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7354 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:08 pm

Is Carolina out of the woods this run?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7355 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:09 pm

Same block as 12z coming up.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7356 Postby meriland29 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:09 pm

hr 126, still heading due NE, even more-so.
Last edited by meriland29 on Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7357 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:09 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Is Carolina out of the woods this run?


No and it won't be out of the woods for days.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7358 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:09 pm

This is the most NE we've seen the GFS since two days ago on 18z, 9/3/17. It is an encouraging sign but I'm definitely not popping champagne yet. If the Euro tonight follows suit then maybe we can get a bit more excited. The GFS is notorious for breaking down ridges too soon in the past.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7359 Postby Kohlecane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:09 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Is Carolina out of the woods this run?

No
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7360 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:09 pm

RL3AO wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:Is Carolina out of the woods this run?


No and it won't be out of the woods for days.


I was speaking about this run of the GFS specifically.
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