ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Informations for Martinique please?

The northern part of the island could still get into the eyewall of Maria with some category 2 or 3 winds. The rest of the island could see some strong TS gusts with the occasional hurricane wind gusts. Dominica looks like it will get the absolute worst of Maria though.

[GCANE]

Hurricane Local Statement
Hurricane Maria Local Statement Advisory Number 9
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-190000-

Hurricane Maria Local Statement Advisory Number 9
National Weather Service San Juan PR AL152017
1146 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

This product covers PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS

**MARIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Hurricane Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning
for St Croix and St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for St Croix and
St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent Islands
- A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Central Interior, Culebra,
Eastern Interior, Mayaguez and Vicinity, North Central,
Northeast, Northwest, Ponce and Vicinity, San Juan and
Vicinity, Southeast, Southwest, Vieques, and Western Interior

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 470 miles east-southeast of San Juan PR or about 410
miles southeast of Saint Thomas VI
- 14.7N 60.1W
- Storm Intensity 120 mph
- Movement West-northwest or 285 degrees at 10 mph

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... b_3abKGPIU

[SkeetoBite]

[Ken711]

Are there any mountains in the areas of PR that could degrade Maria or is it moving to fast?

[hurricaneCW]

Dominica is almost guaranteed to get the northern eyewall of Maria if not a full landfall.

It's not impossible that she ramps up to a 4 before that.

[TheBigO]

Co-worker in St. Lucia said the gov't had effectively already closed down the island as of this morning.

This season is just awful.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Eye is really starting to become visible.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-96-1-10

[SkeetoBite]

[abajan]

Dominica is almost guaranteed to get the northern eyewall of Maria if not a full landfall.

It's not impossible that she ramps up to a 4 before that.

That's actually what the 11 AM NHC Discussion forecasts.
EDIT: Well, not quite before, but by the time it gets there. I now see that's what you meant.

[tolakram]

[hurricaneCW]

Luckily for those islands Maria is very compact right now so the path of destruction will be very narrow.

Puerto Rico on the other hand is going to be dealing with a fully mature, larger major hurricane that may move through the entire island.

[AutoPenalti]

North side of Maria looks ragged. Maybe some dry air penetrated?

[supercane4867]

000
URNT12 KNHC 181650
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152017
A. 18/16:35:00Z
B. 14 deg 45 min N
060 deg 14 min W
C. 700 mb 2727 m
D. 104 kt
E. 134 deg 5 nm
F. 218 deg 101 kt
G. 134 deg 8 nm
H. 957 mb
I. 10 C / 3045 m
J. 17 C / 3038 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 0215A MARIA OB 22
MAX FL WIND 115 KT 089 / 17 NM 14:41:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 245 / 18 KT
;

[Gustywind]

Any link thanks?

[GCANE]

[OntarioEggplant]

Um... Surface dropsonde wind in SE eyewall 122 KT!?

[GCANE]

Pinhole

Eye diameter down to 8nm, closed.

[SouthDadeFish]

Um... Surface dropsonde wind in SE eyewall 122 KT!?

It's important to remember that those are instantaneous winds and not necessarily representative of a sustained wind. However, the lowermost 150-m layer mean of 127 kt is very impressive. As indicated with the pressure fall down to 956 mb or so, Maria is still strengthening.

[1900hurricane]

Um... Surface dropsonde wind in SE eyewall 122 KT!?

That drop also had 142 kt instantaneous winds only 10 mb off the surface.

[tolakram]

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/34LkZVF.png[/img]

Any link thanks?

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-96-1-100

it resizes based on page size but you can stop, move slider to last image, and right click to view the full size or download and view.