ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NFLnut]

85-100 mph winds with higher gusts is now the forecast for the Orlando area for Sunday night.

Highly doubt that should be weakening by then. Can you post a link? Thx

I'm near Orlando. It says 75 gusts to 92.

That sounds about right for Orlando. 12-15 hrs after landfall at or near the mid keys at Cat 4 and the NHC discussion mentioned:

"After landfall, a FAIRLY QUICK DECAY in maximum winds is expected due to land interaction and INCREASED SHEAR .."

The official forecast states max winds at 115mph somewhere just north of Okeechobee at 72 hrs. It will take another 4-6 hours or so for the worst to get to Orlando. BUT this thing is so huge, it will be probably close to 30-36 hours of tropical storm or higher winds from start to finish before the last feeder band exits the area.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080426
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 47 20170908
041630 2132N 07240W 6970 02622 9431 +131 +060 151119 120 105 002 00
041700 2131N 07241W 6964 02591 9391 +129 +073 151115 119 109 001 00
041730 2130N 07242W 6974 02544 9349 +136 +079 154090 109 108 006 00
041800 2129N 07244W 6969 02524 9304 +156 +082 153066 080 099 002 03
041830 2128N 07245W 6965 02512 9283 +160 +083 150050 059 079 001 00
041900 2127N 07247W 6970 02494 9269 +160 +082 145041 045 055 003 03
041930 2126N 07248W 6964 02488 9256 +159 +081 138034 040 039 003 00
042000 2125N 07250W 6975 02461 9242 +162 +073 130023 031 034 002 03
042030 2124N 07251W 6965 02468 9231 +169 +070 161007 018 025 001 03
042100 2123N 07253W 6967 02465 9229 +173 +069 272010 012 022 002 03
042130 2123N 07255W 6970 02468 9239 +168 +070 316014 016 024 002 00
042200 2122N 07256W 6968 02481 9251 +164 +070 315031 036 026 002 03
042230 2122N 07258W 6963 02493 9259 +162 +074 325039 041 /// /// 03
042300 2123N 07258W 6963 02488 9256 +161 +070 000026 037 /// /// 03
042330 2124N 07257W 6966 02479 9246 +167 +069 023016 022 /// /// 03
042400 2124N 07255W 6963 02477 9238 +170 +069 359006 013 016 001 03
042430 2124N 07253W 6971 02461 9231 +169 +066 228010 015 023 002 00
042500 2124N 07251W 6958 02483 9246 +159 +067 204028 035 033 003 00
042530 2124N 07249W 6973 02476 9257 +160 +069 201046 053 035 002 03
042600 2122N 07249W 6983 02477 9262 +171 +067 213059 061 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo&product=N0R&loop=yes


Guantanamo radar

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

[Ptarmigan]

wow that wind field has grown a lot.. look how far out the 100 + mph winds go !!

005800 2113N 07155W 6964 02468 9230 +168 +077 162063 073 060 001 00
005830 2115N 07153W 6965 02494 9271 +154 +079 161090 098 071 003 03
005900 2116N 07152W 6963 02540 9350 +120 +080 159119 130 110 006 03
005930 2118N 07150W 6989 02578 9435 +106 +072 153138 140 116 027 00
010000 2119N 07149W 6962 02668 9494 +110 +064 151132 136 112 008 00
010030 2120N 07148W 6963 02713 9543 +110 +059 149128 129 102 002 00
010100 2122N 07146W 6966 02748 9576 +118 +054 148124 127 102 000 03
010130 2123N 07145W 6967 02780 9608 +124 +051 147120 122 103 000 00
010200 2124N 07144W 6964 02813 9644 +118 +053 146118 120 103 003 00
010230 2125N 07143W 6967 02832 9664 +121 +054 145115 117 105 006 00
010300 2127N 07141W 6969 02845 9705 +101 +057 147109 114 105 010 00
010330 2128N 07140W 6977 02867 9755 +085 +056 144119 124 103 025 00
010400 2129N 07139W 6958 02905 9776 +084 +052 142122 123 093 019 00
010430 2130N 07137W 6963 02917 9798 +080 +048 142121 123 094 019 00
010500 2131N 07136W 6973 02926 9822 +079 +044 143123 124 091 019 00
010530 2133N 07135W 6966 02945 9836 +078 +041 145120 123 086 024 00
010600 2134N 07134W 6967 02956 9850 +079 +044 145118 122 083 025 00
010630 2135N 07132W 6971 02961 9863 +075 +043 144117 119 093 017 00
010700 2136N 07131W 6965 02976 9874 +077 +029 149115 116 100 013 03
010730 2138N 07130W 6971 02981 9895 +071 +024 152114 115 095 011 03
010800 2139N 07128W 6953 03016 9902 +074 +033 149114 116 /// /// 03
010830 2140N 07127W 6965 03011 9911 +078 +035 150111 113 091 001 00
010900 2142N 07126W 6967 03018 9916 +084 +030 150105 109 080 010 00
010930 2143N 07124W 6967 03027 9926 +083 +029 151099 104 086 010 00
011000 2144N 07123W 6967 03037 9943 +076 +034 151099 099 091 012 00
011030 2146N 07122W 6979 03030 9954 +075 +034 148098 100 070 012 00
011100 2147N 07120W 6966 03056 9964 +076 +032 142089 098 068 012 00
011130 2148N 07119W 6964 03060 9973 +071 +028 141083 088 067 009 00
011200 2149N 07118W 6965 03063 9965 +081 +026 142084 084 066 009 00

That is beyond nuts! You could just look at Irma this afternoon and yes now and see this isn't something we've seen before in modern times. I'd imagine scenarios with hurricane's this large making the same path - wasn't sure if it would ever occur.

Did anyone catch the 10 pm start on CNN where those people on the Florida keys were going to ride it out? Then the guy being interviewed cussed twice .

So are they going to have a hurricane party?

[bob rulz]

While the weakening is happening because of an EWRC, I wouldn't be surprised if the EWRC was triggered by downsloping flow off of the Hispaniola mountains. It had a nearly perfect structure before that allowed it to complete these "perfect" EWRC (or merging eyewalls, however you want to term it), but downsloping off of Hispaniola may have given it just enough structural instability to trigger a more conventional EWRC. That's my theory at least.

[ConvergenceZone]

It looks like the eyewall is opening up on the NW side...recon is finding weaker winds...perhaps a weakening phase.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 3-200-1-10

Probably has something to do with inflow interruption due to Hispaniola

they did say on the weather channel that they are hoping that the southern inflow goes over enough mountains in Cuba to weaken the hurricane more than expected. They pointed out that it definitely could happen due to the high mountains of cuba and how the hurricane would pull in dry air from the south...

[Aric Dunn]

pressure has risen quite a bit the last hour.. typcailly means the inner eye has collapsed.. outer should contracted and pressure should fall over the next 12 hours.

[Hurricaneman]

While the weakening is happening because of an EWRC, I wouldn't be surprised if the EWRC was triggered by downsloping flow off of the Hispaniola mountains. It had a nearly perfect structure before that allowed it to complete these "perfect" EWRC (or merging eyewalls, however you want to term it), but downsloping off of Hispaniola may have given it just enough structural instability to trigger a more conventional EWRC. That's my theory at least.

Makes sense but once complete this could deepen again, looks like weakening is happening as the pressure has risen to the upper 920s according to recon

[Raebie]

pressure has risen quite a bit the last hour.. typcailly means the inner eye has collapsed.. outer should contracted and pressure should fall over the next 12 hours.

Yep. We'll know tomorrow afternoon. What she's going to do.

[ConvergenceZone]

While the weakening is happening because of an EWRC, I wouldn't be surprised if the EWRC was triggered by downsloping flow off of the Hispaniola mountains. It had a nearly perfect structure before that allowed it to complete these "perfect" EWRC (or merging eyewalls, however you want to term it), but downsloping off of Hispaniola may have given it just enough structural instability to trigger a more conventional EWRC. That's my theory at least.

Makes sense but once complete this could deepen again, looks like weakening is happening as the pressure has risen to the upper 920s according to recon

True, but if I had to make a prediction, I'd say we wake up to 140 to 145mph winds......which is still very strong.........

[Raebie]

While the weakening is happening because of an EWRC, I wouldn't be surprised if the EWRC was triggered by downsloping flow off of the Hispaniola mountains. It had a nearly perfect structure before that allowed it to complete these "perfect" EWRC (or merging eyewalls, however you want to term it), but downsloping off of Hispaniola may have given it just enough structural instability to trigger a more conventional EWRC. That's my theory at least.

Makes sense but once complete this could deepen again, looks like weakening is happening as the pressure has risen to the upper 920s according to recon

Lol...remember when no one thought she would get into the 920's in the first place? Ah...the good old days.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Wow...latest recon pass shows no winds stronger than 130mph...interesting...

[RL3AO]

Wow...latest recon pass shows no winds stronger than 130mph...interesting...

147 kt FL wind in SE eyewall.

[Aric Dunn]

Wow...latest recon pass shows no winds stronger than 130mph...interesting...

what do you mean ? still cat 5 upper cat 4


000 2136N 07251W 6962 02550 9351 +127 +077 116106 117 120 012 03
043030 2139N 07251W 6986 02575 9435 +098 +067 115133 135 120 076 00
043100 2141N 07251W 6959 02658 9495 +092 +055 111127 132 116 049 03
043130 2142N 07251W 6965 02693 9536 +094 +052 109129 130 119 033 03
043200 2144N 07251W 6959 02730 9572 +096 +053 107129 130 106 066 00
043230 2146N 07252W 6969 02752 9605 +099 +054 107128 129 106 041 00
043300 2148N 07252W 6961 02788 9633 +098 +055 106126 129 105 044 00
043330 2150N 07252W 6967 02804 9661 +097 +055 108124 125 104 044 00
043400 2152N 07252W 6969 02827 9692 +088 +053 111137 142 106 040 03
043430 2153N 07252W 6976 02830 9733 +074 +046 103142 147 /// /// 03
043500 2155N 07252W 6967 02861 9762 +066 +034 102136 140 108 042 00
043530 2157N 07252W 6956 02904 9789 +067 +030 105132 135 102 036 00
043600 2159N 07252W 6967 02905 9813 +066 +025 107129 131 098 022 00

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow...latest recon pass shows no winds stronger than 130mph...interesting...

Hmm, I'd be surprised if it's downgraded by that much, maybe 130 mph by morning, but 130 mph now would be quite a drop in one update........

[Hurricane Andrew]

Wow...latest recon pass shows no winds stronger than 130mph...interesting...

147 kt FL wind in SE eyewall.

Highest SFMR was 120kt in the RFQ...I think it will restrengthen though, how about you?

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow...latest recon pass shows no winds stronger than 130mph...interesting...

147 kt FL wind in SE eyewall.

Thanks for clarifying. I thought that was quite low........I don't see it dropping quite that fast.

[caneseddy]

Hey all,

I'm here in Country Club Gardens, right off I-75 on the Miami-Dade/Broward County with my girlfriend and my parents ready to ride out the storm; we have the shutters put up, food and water for a while and ready to ride it out. I have lived here since 1989 when I moved from Puerto Rico and my grandfather would tell me the story of the 1928 Lake Okeechobee Hurricane and the destruction it wreaked on Puerto Rico and I was petrified. I went through Andrew and the eyewall of Wilma.

I've never been as petrified with a hurricane as I have been with this one. This has the potential to alter the landscape of not just South Florida but the entire state if the path and strength come to fruition. This angle of approach is the worst case scenario for Miami (coming from the SSE). Most people who live here have never experienced a hurricane of this magnitude. We have all been used to hurricanes projected to come this way but this is it. This is most likely the big one that all forecasters and emergency planners had talked about for Miami and we are on the verge of going through it. I truly fear that many neighborhoods and areas I am used to and frequented will be devastated. I keep hoping that maybe by some miracle this would turn out to sea and not affect us, but I am resigned to the fact that we are on the verge of a catastrophe .

Preparing for the worse and hoping for the best.

[RL3AO]

Wow...latest recon pass shows no winds stronger than 130mph...interesting...

147 kt FL wind in SE eyewall.

Highest SFMR was 120kt in the RFQ...I think it will restrengthen though, how about you?

I have little doubt it will.

[Sciencerocks]

042600 2122N 07249W 6983 02477 9262 +171 +067 213059 061 /// /// 03
042630 2122N 07250W 6966 02488 9255 +165 +070 213048 059 /// /// 03
042700 2124N 07251W 6961 02481 9243 +164 +064 186033 039 037 002 00
042730 2126N 07251W 6966 02471 9245 +159 +068 162035 036 037 003 00
042800 2128N 07251W 6970 02471 9245 +164 +062 131040 044 039 002 00
042830 2130N 07251W 6957 02495 9253 +165 +063 124049 051 047 002 00
042900 2132N 07251W 6963 02500 9268 +164 +064 121059 066 067 003 00
042930 2134N 07251W 6965 02516 9295 +153 +069 117078 086 097 005 03
043000 2136N 07251W 6962 02550 9351 +127 +077 116106 117 120 012 03
043030 2139N 07251W 6986 02575 9435 +098 +067 115133 135 120 076 00
043100 2141N 07251W 6959 02658 9495 +092 +055 111127 132 116 049 03
043130 2142N 07251W 6965 02693 9536 +094 +052 109129 130 119 033 03
043200 2144N 07251W 6959 02730 9572 +096 +053 107129 130 106 066 00
043230 2146N 07252W 6969 02752 9605 +099 +054 107128 129 106 041 00
043300 2148N 07252W 6961 02788 9633 +098 +055 106126 129 105 044 00
043330 2150N 07252W 6967 02804 9661 +097 +055 108124 125 104 044 00
043400 2152N 07252W 6969 02827 9692 +088 +053 111137 142 106 040 03
043430 2153N 07252W 6976 02830 9733 +074 +046 103142 147 /// /// 03
043500 2155N 07252W 6967 02861 9762 +066 +034 102136 140 108 042 00
043530 2157N 07252W 6956 02904 9789 +067 +030 105132 135 102 036 00
043600 2159N 07252W 6967 02905 9813 +066 +025 107129 131 098 022 00

147 knt flight level x .9 =132 knots and 120 knot smrf. I'd go very liberal and say it is now a 130 knot hurricane.