ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bob rulz]

It would be a miracle if this didn't re-strengthen. There's no reason to think it won't, unless for some reason it doesn't complete this EWRC. There's also no reason to think that.

[otowntiger]

Highly doubt that should be weakening by then. Can you post a link? Thx

I'm near Orlando. It says 75 gusts to 92.

That sounds about right for Orlando. 12-15 hrs after landfall at or near the mid keys at Cat 4 and the NHC discussion mentioned:

"After landfall, a FAIRLY QUICK DECAY in maximum winds is expected due to land interaction and INCREASED SHEAR .."

The official forecast states max winds at 115mph somewhere just north of Okeechobee at 72 hrs. It will take another 4-6 hours or so for the worst to get to Orlando. BUT this thing is so huge, it will be probably close to 30-36 hours of tropical storm or higher winds from start to finish before the last feeder band exits the area.

NOAA.gov is showing sustained at 92, gusts to 113 predicted for 2:00 am Monday for Orlando. Will know soon enough if that is exaggerated. Oh and also hurricane conditions to last about 4 hours due im sure to ridiculous size of the storm.

[Kingarabian]

I'd go with 130-135kts. Pressure around 920.

[EquusStorm]

If the concentric eyewall structure continues and can't quite stabilize a tight inner eyewall, I imagine that could help offset the warmer water and better outflow a little and help it not deepen as much as it otherwise might. But it could also develop a more conventional or stable structure and take off again... for Florida's sake, maybe it will continue its structural struggles.

But hey, at least the pressure and wind have sort of caught up to each other finally.

[Cyclenall]

So are they going to have a hurricane party?

I guess so but they said if it gets super bad they'll leave and the interviewed one stated Key West as his go-to escape. They won't know how bad it is until its too late...they will be hanging on for survival way more then they think.

[FLeastcoast]

What time r they saying irma will get to fl please. Can't find it anywhere

[Raebie]

So are they going to have a hurricane party?

I guess so but they said if it gets super bad they'll leave and the interviewed one stated Key West as his go-to escape. They won't know how bad it is until its too late...they will be hanging on for survival way more then they think.

"If it gets super bad they'll leave"? Good luck with that.

[Raebie]

What time r they saying irma will get to fl please. Can't find it anywhere

Saturday morning.

[Hurricane Andrew]

What time r they saying irma will get to fl please. Can't find it anywhere

Here is a helpful link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 4#contents

[HDGator]

Hey all,

I'm here in Country Club Gardens, right off I-75 on the Miami-Dade/Broward County with my girlfriend and my parents ready to ride out the storm; we have the shutters put up, food and water for a while and ready to ride it out. I have lived here since 1989 when I moved from Puerto Rico and my grandfather would tell me the story of the 1928 Lake Okeechobee Hurricane and the destruction it wreaked on Puerto Rico and I was petrified. I went through Andrew and the eyewall of Wilma.

I've never been as petrified with a hurricane as I have been with this one. This has the potential to alter the landscape of not just South Florida but the entire state if the path and strength come to fruition. This angle of approach is the worst case scenario for Miami (coming from the SSE). Most people who live here have never experienced a hurricane of this magnitude. We have all been used to hurricanes projected to come this way but this is it. This is most likely the big one that all forecasters and emergency planners had talked about for Miami and we are on the verge of going through it. I truly fear that many neighborhoods and areas I am used to and frequented will be devastated. I keep hoping that maybe by some miracle this would turn out to sea and not affect us, but I am resigned to the fact that we are on the verge of a catastrophe .

Preparing for the worse and hoping for the best.

You are echoing the thoughts of those of us who have lived our lives here. Always knowing that we are in the path of potential destruction as told to us by our grandparents from these storms. As long as you have secured your home and property you will come through this just fine. We may have the uncomfortable aftermath of no power or infrastructure for weeks / months ? but still securing the safety of our families is the most important.

As you said, preparing for the worst but hoping for the best.

[floridasun78]

now hitting me i going lose every thing this last night i sleeping on my bed for good this making me sick i remember seen video andrew people saw roof coming out call tv station got feeling that what i will see wind 150.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080456
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 50 20170908
044630 2200N 07335W 6967 03022 9924 +080 +026 053100 101 065 008 00
044700 2159N 07338W 6963 03032 9936 +074 +032 051098 099 062 006 03
044730 2157N 07339W 6963 03030 9933 +075 +035 048095 097 /// /// 03
044800 2155N 07338W 6966 03020 9914 +085 +029 047091 096 067 007 00
044830 2154N 07337W 6967 03009 9910 +080 +028 043092 093 066 008 00
044900 2153N 07336W 6966 03000 9903 +075 +031 040095 096 069 015 00
044930 2152N 07335W 6965 02990 9891 +075 +038 043105 107 070 022 03
045000 2151N 07333W 6975 02971 9882 +073 +036 050102 105 075 015 00
045030 2150N 07332W 6966 02966 9861 +076 +036 050106 109 080 011 00
045100 2149N 07331W 6969 02949 9847 +077 +033 049107 109 081 011 00
045130 2148N 07330W 6963 02942 9834 +073 +032 048111 112 086 012 00
045200 2147N 07329W 6970 02917 9826 +066 +025 044111 112 088 022 00
045230 2146N 07328W 6967 02903 9803 +068 +024 042114 117 095 027 00
045300 2144N 07327W 6956 02893 9763 +079 +038 047119 121 101 028 00
045330 2143N 07326W 6952 02877 9735 +081 +044 053128 132 103 027 00
045400 2142N 07325W 6977 02825 9704 +091 +049 058122 127 103 026 00
045430 2142N 07324W 6961 02829 9685 +090 +054 059123 127 103 023 00
045500 2141N 07323W 6971 02798 9659 +098 +058 057113 122 106 016 00
045530 2140N 07322W 6957 02797 9634 +102 +060 054112 114 107 018 00
045600 2139N 07321W 6971 02756 9599 +110 +062 049110 113 112 013 00
$$

[PandaCitrus]

Eyewall replacement is finishing. Irma is going to have the mother of all eyewalls tomorrow morning. It looks 50 or 60 miles wide in the microwave imagery. At that rate, it won't matter where she hits, East, West, Center. Everybody is going to get the Cat 4 winds.

 https://twitter.com/codyyeary/status/906012452835299329




 https://twitter.com/JonathanBelles/status/906015467336114179

[floridasun78]

their were talking for year big one happen again after Andrew

[Janie2006]

Indeed. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Before Ivan struck I left my home, convinced that it would suffer major damage. From my sister's house at NAS Middleton (north of Memphis) I sat up all night and watched Ivan come in. There was a northeast wobble at the last minute, sparing me but inflicting a lot of damage on Orange Beach and Pensacola. These things will happen, and sometimes they won't. Luck of the draw sometimes.

[Hurricaneman]

By 3am at the latest the ewrc will be completed

[LAwxrgal]

I agree with Janie2006. I felt the same way that Sunday morning before Katrina hit and I was on the road. There was just total dread in my heart. My heart sank when the news announced that the storm was 175 mph. The storm took a northeast jog sparing me but didn't spare my neighbors on the MS coast unfortunately. It's the luck of the draw sometimes.
A few years later to the day I was flooded during Hurricane Isaac (2012). I wish everyone the best.

BTW has anyone heard from bvigal and cycloneye?

[Hurricane Andrew]

My gut feeling is what I posted before, a landfall of 165mph in SEFL. I think the SSTs, OHC, and overall favorable atmospherics are enough to offset the land proximity and shear from Saturday to early Sunday morning. I am not a Promet, these are just my personal thoughts.

[Janie2006]

So are they going to have a hurricane party?

I guess so but they said if it gets super bad they'll leave and the interviewed one stated Key West as his go-to escape. They won't know how bad it is until its too late...they will be hanging on for survival way more then they think.

"If it gets super bad they'll leave"? Good luck with that.

As Mr. Oogie Boogie said in The Nightmare Before Christmas: "You ain't going nowhere." Pure foolishness.

[Evenstar]

Enjoying seeing the Patriots getting their teeth kicked in. A nice comfort since the Dolphins aren't playing this weekend.

Fins fans...