ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bamajammer4eva]

Nothing happening in SE Alabama--its fall-like here so definitely no hurricane allowed but still watching twitter from afar. Saw Key Largo-Automatically triggers the ole song

 https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/905825521719799809






Link: https://youtu.be/fJWmbLS2_ec

[jlauderdal]

well that was positive for SE florida...we have a west a trend and a shot at it interacting with cuba...that can all vaporize but at this point we take anything we can get...continue with preps like we take a direct hit from a 5 because that scenario is not far fetched...everyone on the peninsula needs to be ready for a cat 1-5 depending on your location

[havok490]

Need advice. I am located in El Portal, FL. Small village between Miami and Miami Shores. House has impact windows, roof is fairly new(<5 years old), and 13+feet above sea level. Evacuation Zone D which has not been called yet. We are trying to decide if we should ride this out, plenty of supplies on hand or head to Fort Myers. Seems like the track keeps shifting further west. Thanks for your help as this will be the first major hurricane I will experience.

[Sciencerocks]

084430 2328N 07653W 4846 06114 0310 -062 -077 051040 040 023 000 00
084500 2326N 07651W 4847 06113 0310 -058 -080 052041 041 023 000 00
084530 2324N 07650W 4849 06110 0310 -050 -085 050039 040 022 001 00
084600 2322N 07648W 4847 06112 0310 -051 -089 054041 042 021 000 00
084630 2320N 07646W 4846 06113 0309 -050 -085 053043 043 022 001 00
084700 2318N 07644W 4850 06109 0309 -056 -084 048042 043 022 001 00
084730 2316N 07643W 4896 06035 0305 -056 -076 046042 042 024 001 00
084800 2313N 07643W 5030 05822 0292 -046 -068 047042 043 027 001 03
084830 2311N 07643W 5170 05603 0278 -029 -094 049043 044 029 001 00
084900 2308N 07643W 5318 05379 0262 -007 -104 047043 044 028 001 00
084930 2306N 07643W 5452 05180 0249 +001 -115 046042 043 029 001 00
085000 2303N 07643W 5575 04999 0047 +002 -083 046043 044 031 002 00
085030 2301N 07642W 5689 04837 0057 +005 -039 048044 045 030 003 00
085100 2258N 07642W 5822 04649 0067 +009 -009 045043 044 028 003 00
085130 2256N 07642W 5929 04500 0058 +024 -008 047043 043 027 004 00
085200 2253N 07642W 6049 04338 0056 +035 -006 046043 043 028 002 00
085230 2251N 07642W 6174 04171 0054 +046 -007 043042 043 028 001 00
085300 2248N 07642W 6287 04019 0054 +055 +004 041042 043 029 001 00
085330 2246N 07642W 6399 03876 0057 +062 +022 041043 044 030 001 00
085400 2244N 07642W 6520 03720 0057 +070 +032 038043 043 033 000 00
085430 2241N 07641W 6643 03566 0056 +080 +031 034041 042 033 001 00

[KyleEverett]

It appears to me that Irma has nearly finished her ERC, and right on cue, cloud tops have begun to cool.

[WeatherGuesser]

Nothing happening in SE Alabama--its fall-like here

I'm pretty sure that front had a big part in turning this away from the Gulf. We dropped 15-20 degrees in the last couple of days and have been 10-12 degrees below normal with a high yesterday in the mid 70s.

[bamajammer4eva]

FWIW Jim Cantore is favoring west. I have TWC playing and He was talking about the track on TWC's graphic and he said this can easily be farther west than shown. Just a thought.

[Myersgirl]

Not looking good for us in Ft Myers

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 080914
NOAA2 2011A IRMA HDOB 11 20170908
090500 2208N 07612W 7081 03022 0044 +111 +049 014054 055 030 001 00
090530 2207N 07610W 7080 03022 0040 +113 +046 019052 053 030 001 00
090600 2206N 07608W 7081 03016 0038 +111 +049 018051 051 029 001 00
090630 2205N 07606W 7076 03025 0041 +106 +063 016055 057 030 001 00
090700 2203N 07604W 7093 02995 0041 +103 +072 020059 062 029 002 00
090730 2202N 07602W 7073 03021 0038 +103 +071 023063 063 029 002 00
090800 2201N 07600W 7088 03002 0034 +104 +075 022063 063 031 003 00
090830 2200N 07558W 7071 03018 0031 +102 +081 020063 064 034 002 00
090900 2200N 07556W 7094 02987 0034 +101 +080 015061 061 032 003 00
090930 2159N 07554W 7081 03001 0033 +098 +082 014063 064 032 002 00
091000 2158N 07552W 7061 03023 0024 +101 +081 013065 066 033 004 00
091030 2157N 07550W 7063 03012 0013 +104 +088 015064 065 033 005 00
091100 2156N 07548W 7059 03019 0007 +108 +090 016066 066 034 004 00
091130 2155N 07546W 7058 03017 0004 +106 +084 016067 067 033 005 00
091200 2154N 07544W 7062 03007 0005 +102 +090 014068 068 034 005 00
091230 2153N 07542W 7054 03016 9999 +105 +094 017069 071 031 007 00
091300 2153N 07540W 7047 03017 9983 +113 +102 018060 061 034 017 00
091330 2152N 07538W 7012 03058 9983 +107 //// 012054 056 036 024 01
091400 2151N 07536W 7017 03049 9976 +111 //// 019059 061 038 016 01
091430 2150N 07534W 7062 02989 9974 +115 +096 015061 062 039 012 00

[johngaltfla]

Not looking good for us in Ft Myers

Not at all. Donna is the best analogy and it left a track of destruction from the Keys through the middle of the state in 1960; when the population on the West Coast of Florida was not nearly as large as it is now.



Miami will get the storm surge and wind along with the Keys, but Fort Myers north will get a massive rain/wind event for about 6-12 hours.

[WeatherGuesser]

IF it does manage to basically run up I-75, is the system as a whole wide enough to continue to pick up energy from the ocean and the Gulf?

[cjrciadt]

Wow!! Four count em four active recon missions ATM!!!

[thoughtsinchaos]

It appears to me that Irma has nearly finished her ERC, and right on cue, cloud tops have begun to cool.

Not quite, the eye appears the same size as before on satellite. Also the Holguin, Cuba radar shows the northern inner eye still intact. The inner eye has been rather resilient!

Moreover, though it's hard to tell because a lot of the storm is still out of radar range, but that strong outer rainband might encircle the whole hurricane, and there appears to be a mote between that outer rainband and the inner core. This could end up turning into a triple concentric eyewall structure!

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 080924
NOAA2 2011A IRMA HDOB 12 20170908
091500 2149N 07531W 7062 02988 9977 +109 +096 012062 064 036 009 00
091530 2148N 07530W 7054 02994 9974 +107 +102 011068 070 038 008 00
091600 2146N 07528W 7045 03001 9964 +110 +106 012071 072 039 008 00
091630 2145N 07526W 7034 03007 9959 +109 //// 009072 073 040 012 01
091700 2143N 07524W 7031 03007 9951 +108 //// 006069 073 044 039 01
091730 2142N 07522W 7011 03032 9947 +107 //// 008057 062 058 038 01
091800 2140N 07520W 6997 03043 9945 +104 //// 011063 067 051 044 01
091830 2139N 07518W 7031 02998 9953 +102 //// 015066 067 050 045 05
091900 2137N 07516W 6999 03043 9954 +102 +098 009066 066 039 009 00
091930 2137N 07514W 7081 02939 9945 +110 +098 008064 065 040 004 03
092000 2138N 07513W 7000 03029 9938 +106 +101 008064 065 042 004 00
092030 2139N 07511W 7000 03025 9929 +107 //// 011063 065 043 004 01
092100 2140N 07509W 7002 03016 9927 +107 //// 016063 064 043 005 05
092130 2140N 07507W 7016 02996 9919 +110 //// 017068 070 046 005 01
092200 2140N 07505W 6998 03020 9917 +108 //// 016069 070 049 002 01
092230 2140N 07503W 7007 03001 9906 +112 +112 015071 072 051 003 00
092300 2140N 07501W 7010 02993 9895 +118 +106 015071 071 051 003 00
092330 2140N 07459W 7002 02992 9882 +123 +101 016073 075 052 003 00
092400 2140N 07457W 6992 03001 9880 +117 +099 016076 077 051 003 00
092430 2140N 07455W 6984 02999 9875 +113 +104 018080 082 052 009 00

[johngaltfla]

Wow!! Four count em four active recon missions ATM!!!

This is the nightmare storm Florida has been worried about for 25 years. It is the worst case scenario because I tend to agree with Bastardi who thinks rapid intensification in the Florida Straits before landfall is probable.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

My uncle who had previously told us he evacuated is actually in Port St Lucie staying at home. Increasingly getting worried...

[Sanibel]

Serious figuring to do today...Need a few more hours of sleep...Going to be a very long day...Close enough to the core for surge and damage here on Sanibel...Track rounding more than hard turn...

[Extratropical94]

It looks like the NOAA plane is not trying to stay at the 700mb level but to maintain 3000m altitude.

[Myersgirl]

This trend is definitely not good for us on the South west coast. Worried about the surge coming up the river here in Fort Myers. It didn't rise here for Charlie or Wilma, but this might be different.

[Sciencerocks]

Can someone else do Irma...I'll do Jose and Katia.