ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

It looks like we're going to get the west edge of what I call the "core wall" and with things trending as they are maybe even the eyewall...I think 140mph winds are possible so we are in to house damage issues and we have two jammed hurricane shutters that won't go down...


That means we're in a surge situation here on Sanibel and that makes it a whole different deal...

[wxman57]

This trend is definitely not good for us on the South west coast. Worried about the surge coming up the river here in Fort Myers. It didn't rise here for Charlie or Wilma, but this might be different.

If Irma tracks up the central FL Peninsula then you would see tides below normal there with a strong northerly wind. Very good GFS/EC agreement now. Eyewall may miss Miami/Palm Beach to the west and Ft. Myers to the east.

Yes wxman IF it can thread the needle with the eyewall but one wobble west or east and well we all know what that means.

Yeah, it would mean stronger northerly wind on the west coast, but still no surge, which was the original question. Irma would have to pass the Keys and come up from the south into Ft. Myers like Charlie. That would be very bad for the SW Peninsula. Can't rule that out, but it's looking like Irma will stay to the east.

[Extratropical94]

Seems there is a problem with the recon data stream. No new updates from any of the five active planes for more than 15 minutes now.

[tolakram]

long loop. Looks like Irma is on the rebound now.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=919&y=993&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Hurricane Andrew]

long loop. Looks like Irma is on the rebound now.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=919&y=993&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

I agree. Going to work up a final intensity forecast this afternoon. My gut, which has been pretty good so far, is saying Cat 5, but that is no meteorological metric. With the EWRC finishing up, the only thing that I can see keeping a lid on this is Cuba. Once she clears that...

What are your thoughts, Mark?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Bocadude85]

This trend is definitely not good for us on the South west coast. Worried about the surge coming up the river here in Fort Myers. It didn't rise here for Charlie or Wilma, but this might be different.

If Irma tracks up the central FL Peninsula then you would see tides below normal there with a strong northerly wind. Very good GFS/EC agreement now. Eyewall may miss Miami/Palm Beach to the west and Ft. Myers to the east.

Wxman57 do you think we will see hurricane force winds in Palm Beach County? I'm hearing some talk that we have dodged a bullet and will only see tropical storm force winds here.

[Hurricane Andrew]

EWRC, which lasted about 24hrs, is now done; once she re-tightens, I expect her to begin deepening again. Just my opinion, please refer to the NHC for official forecasts, products, etc. They've been doing a great job.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

[tolakram]

long loop. Looks like Irma is on the rebound now.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=919&y=993&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

I agree. Going to work up a final intensity forecast this afternoon. My gut, which has been pretty good so far, is saying Cat 5, but that is no meteorological metric. With the EWRC finishing up, the only thing that I can see keeping a lid on this is Cuba. Once she clears that...

What are your thoughts, Mark?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

I assume it can stay close to cat 4 but we've seen weakening in this area regardless of ocean temps due to increasing shear. It takes a really good environment to maintain cat 4 and 5. Honestly I think the stronger it comes to shore the better, as we witnessed with Katrina. Keep the windfield tighter and not spreading out like weakening and eyewall replacement cycles tend to produce.

[Hurricane Andrew]

long loop. Looks like Irma is on the rebound now.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=919&y=993&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

I agree. Going to work up a final intensity forecast this afternoon. My gut, which has been pretty good so far, is saying Cat 5, but that is no meteorological metric. With the EWRC finishing up, the only thing that I can see keeping a lid on this is Cuba. Once she clears that...

What are your thoughts, Mark?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

I assume it can stay close to cat 4 but we've seen weakening in this area regardless of ocean temps due to increasing shear. It takes a really good environment to maintain cat 4 and 5. Honestly I think the stronger it comes to shore the better, as we witnessed with Katrina. Keep the windfield tighter and not spreading out like weakening and eyewall replacement cycles tend to produce.

Yeah, look at the size of this thing now! That EWRC really expanded her!

[M3gaMatch]

EWRC, which lasted about 24hrs, is now done; once she re-tightens, I expect her to begin deepening again. Just my opinion, please refer to the NHC for official forecasts, products, etc. They've been doing a great job.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

That is a great animation, thanks.

[TheStormExpert]

This trend is definitely not good for us on the South west coast. Worried about the surge coming up the river here in Fort Myers. It didn't rise here for Charlie or Wilma, but this might be different.

If Irma tracks up the central FL Peninsula then you would see tides below normal there with a strong northerly wind. Very good GFS/EC agreement now. Eyewall may miss Miami/Palm Beach to the west and Ft. Myers to the east.

What should we expect here in West Palm wxman57?

[Extratropical94]

NOAA 25-26
URNT15 KWBC 081134
NOAA2 2011A IRMA HDOB 25 20170908
112500 2036N 07352W 7529 02433 9961 +137 +127 227057 057 047 010 00
112530 2034N 07351W 7513 02459 9969 +135 +124 229058 058 048 008 00
112600 2032N 07350W 7514 02459 9973 +136 +123 233057 058 047 008 00
112630 2031N 07349W 7511 02469 9978 +136 +123 236056 057 049 010 00
112700 2029N 07348W 7519 02460 9981 +136 +127 236055 055 047 012 00
112730 2027N 07348W 7512 02473 9987 +135 +127 240054 054 044 013 00
112800 2025N 07347W 7500 02485 9986 +137 +123 242051 053 044 012 00
112830 2023N 07346W 7517 02472 9991 +138 +118 243049 050 042 011 00
112900 2022N 07345W 7516 02477 9998 +135 +126 243048 048 041 011 00
112930 2020N 07344W 7513 02486 0005 +131 +127 239045 046 040 008 00
113000 2018N 07343W 7499 02504 0008 +131 +125 238047 048 040 008 00
113030 2016N 07342W 7508 02498 0008 +135 +122 236048 048 042 006 00
113100 2015N 07341W 7499 02505 0007 +137 +124 232052 053 042 006 03
113130 2014N 07338W 7552 02452 0013 +136 +123 229052 053 042 006 03
113200 2015N 07336W 7507 02505 0015 +135 +128 226053 054 036 005 00
113230 2015N 07333W 7514 02498 0022 +130 +127 223053 054 037 005 00
113300 2015N 07331W 7512 02503 0027 +129 +117 218055 056 037 004 00
113330 2016N 07328W 7514 02498 0029 +127 +105 215059 060 036 004 00
113400 2016N 07326W 7513 02502 0028 +129 +103 217059 060 034 003 00
113430 2017N 07324W 7514 02499 0027 +129 +101 216056 056 035 002 00

URNT15 KWBC 081144
NOAA2 2011A IRMA HDOB 26 20170908
113500 2017N 07321W 7513 02503 0030 +129 +094 214056 057 034 003 00
113530 2017N 07319W 7512 02503 0032 +127 +095 217057 057 035 002 00
113600 2018N 07316W 7513 02502 0032 +127 +095 219057 057 034 002 00
113630 2019N 07314W 7512 02506 0030 +131 +091 219058 059 035 002 00
113700 2021N 07312W 7513 02506 0028 +135 +092 217059 059 035 002 00
113730 2023N 07310W 7512 02507 0030 +134 +094 216060 060 036 002 00
113800 2025N 07308W 7512 02508 0032 +132 +093 213059 060 037 002 00
113830 2027N 07307W 7512 02506 0028 +134 +092 213060 060 035 003 03
113900 2029N 07307W 7514 02500 0020 +138 +097 211059 060 034 002 03
113930 2030N 07309W 7514 02499 0021 +136 +099 211059 060 /// /// 03
114000 2028N 07309W 7515 02499 0024 +134 +098 213058 058 /// /// 03
114030 2028N 07307W 7513 02505 0031 +131 +094 212059 060 /// /// 03
114100 2029N 07305W 7514 02504 0034 +128 +095 211061 061 /// /// 03
114130 2032N 07306W 7514 02502 0027 +133 +099 209059 060 /// /// 03
114200 2032N 07308W 7513 02501 0026 +133 +100 210059 060 /// /// 03
114230 2031N 07309W 7512 02506 0031 +130 +098 210058 058 038 001 00
114300 2029N 07309W 7512 02505 0028 +133 +100 212057 057 036 002 00
114330 2028N 07310W 7511 02507 0031 +131 +100 211057 057 037 002 00
114400 2026N 07311W 7512 02508 0031 +131 +097 211057 057 038 002 00
114430 2025N 07311W 7513 02503 0034 +127 +095 213056 056 038 002 03

[Extratropical94]

NOAA 27
URNT15 KWBC 081154
NOAA2 2011A IRMA HDOB 27 20170908
114500 2024N 07309W 7513 02506 0037 +125 +099 215057 057 /// /// 03
114530 2026N 07307W 7513 02506 0039 +124 +097 214058 059 /// /// 03
114600 2028N 07307W 7513 02507 0040 +123 +099 211059 060 /// /// 03
114630 2029N 07309W 7513 02504 0036 +125 +096 209059 060 /// /// 03
114700 2028N 07310W 7514 02503 0034 +127 +096 210056 057 037 002 00
114730 2026N 07310W 7511 02509 0039 +125 +096 209055 055 039 002 00
114800 2025N 07311W 7512 02508 0040 +124 +102 209055 055 037 002 00
114830 2023N 07311W 7514 02503 0038 +123 +105 212054 054 038 002 03
114900 2023N 07309W 7513 02508 0037 +126 +104 215053 054 /// /// 03
114930 2024N 07307W 7513 02508 0041 +125 +099 213055 055 032 002 03
115000 2027N 07306W 7512 02511 0043 +124 +098 214056 057 033 002 03
115030 2029N 07305W 7512 02511 0044 +120 +108 211058 059 033 002 03
115100 2031N 07305W 7514 02502 0040 +119 +110 210059 060 032 002 03
115130 2032N 07307W 7514 02504 0040 +119 +112 207059 059 /// /// 03
115200 2030N 07308W 7512 02509 0046 +118 +109 208057 058 038 002 00
115230 2029N 07308W 7512 02510 0046 +119 +109 209054 055 038 002 00
115300 2027N 07309W 7512 02511 0045 +120 +108 209053 053 038 002 03
115330 2026N 07310W 7512 02508 0042 +122 +109 210053 053 038 003 00
115400 2024N 07310W 7512 02507 0040 +123 +103 211053 054 040 001 03
115430 2023N 07309W 7514 02506 0041 +123 +104 211053 054 031 002 03

[Extratropical94]

Update: NOAA feed is working again, USAF not yet.

[Patrick99]

This trend is definitely not good for us on the South west coast. Worried about the surge coming up the river here in Fort Myers. It didn't rise here for Charlie or Wilma, but this might be different.

If Irma tracks up the central FL Peninsula then you would see tides below normal there with a strong northerly wind. Very good GFS/EC agreement now. Eyewall may miss Miami/Palm Beach to the west and Ft. Myers to the east.

Wxman57 do you think we will see hurricane force winds in Palm Beach County? I'm hearing some talk that we have dodged a bullet and will only see tropical storm force winds here.

I'd still expect hurricane winds...while there's some hope we may avoid the eyewall. I'm sure at the very least we'd get some nasty bands coming in.

[Bunkertor]

Wow, the European keeps trending westward and the latest 06z GFS also shifted westward. If there is any good news this morning is that Miami may not get hit directly the inner side of the eyewall (direct hit) or not get hit by the eyewall at all if the latest Euro model is correct and it keeps trending westward. But this means that SW FL may get worst conditions than many previously thought.
Irma may have come down to a Cat 4 four this morning but she is expanding the possibility still exists that she may strengthen some over the FL straits.
Stay tunned, model watching continues, wow!

Can you link an overview site for the models ?

[wxman57]

This trend is definitely not good for us on the South west coast. Worried about the surge coming up the river here in Fort Myers. It didn't rise here for Charlie or Wilma, but this might be different.

If Irma tracks up the central FL Peninsula then you would see tides below normal there with a strong northerly wind. Very good GFS/EC agreement now. Eyewall may miss Miami/Palm Beach to the west and Ft. Myers to the east.

Wxman57 do you think we will see hurricane force winds in Palm Beach County? I'm hearing some talk that we have dodged a bullet and will only see tropical storm force winds here.

Even if the center passes 40-45 miles to your west, you'll still be in the Cat 1 winds (75-85 mph sustained) there. Gotta run. Another 11 hrs to go on my shift and I'm working the Irma track.

[Extratropical94]

NOAA 28
URNT15 KWBC 081204
NOAA2 2011A IRMA HDOB 28 20170908
115500 2024N 07307W 7498 02529 0041 +125 +102 212053 054 031 002 00
115530 2024N 07304W 7453 02577 0035 +128 +091 213054 055 032 002 03
115600 2026N 07302W 7518 02505 0039 +130 +092 212055 056 035 002 00
115630 2028N 07301W 7509 02515 0040 +128 +093 212056 056 036 002 03
115700 2030N 07302W 7528 02494 0041 +125 +098 210058 058 038 002 00
115730 2033N 07302W 7492 02531 0042 +121 +099 210058 059 036 003 00
115800 2035N 07303W 7529 02487 0043 +118 +112 207061 061 037 003 00
115830 2037N 07305W 7512 02508 0040 +120 +116 206062 062 034 003 00
115900 2039N 07306W 7520 02494 0040 +119 +110 204060 061 033 004 00
115930 2041N 07307W 7516 02497 0034 +123 +102 204061 062 034 004 03
120000 2043N 07308W 7531 02477 0029 +128 +104 203063 064 037 005 00
120030 2045N 07309W 7514 02498 0027 +126 +115 203063 064 036 005 03
120100 2047N 07310W 7523 02486 0021 +128 +125 203061 062 034 006 03
120130 2049N 07312W 7496 02513 0018 +127 +119 201062 062 /// /// 03
120200 2049N 07314W 7574 02424 0013 +132 +123 199061 062 /// /// 03
120230 2049N 07316W 7509 02497 0010 +131 +125 199059 060 /// /// 03
120300 2049N 07318W 7483 02519 0005 +134 +120 201062 063 /// /// 03
120330 2050N 07320W 7528 02468 0001 +136 +122 203055 059 /// /// 03
120400 2051N 07321W 7517 02478 9994 +141 +122 200053 055 /// /// 03
120430 2053N 07323W 7507 02488 9990 +143 +115 201055 056 /// /// 03

[GCANE]

Another EWRC starting?
Even bigger??

[northjaxpro]

EWRC, which lasted about 24hrs, is now done; once she re-tightens, I expect her to begin deepening again. Just my opinion, please refer to the NHC for official forecasts, products, etc. They've been doing a great job.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

Yes, the cyclone will re-intensify.