ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurrMark]

There have been plenty of storms where EWRC take more than a full day to complete. I am not forecasting this, but it would not shock me to see this get down to a 3 or even a 2 before landfall and not recover (even without Cuban interaction). Just my gut, but I am a little optimistic. Everyone should still prepare for the worst, though. This is an incredibly dangerous situation, and even if it weakens further, the wind field should simply be that much larger.

[txwatcher91]

There have been plenty of storms where EWRC take more than a full day to complete. I am not forecasting this, but it would not shock me to see this get down to a 3 or even a 2 before landfall and not recover (even without Cuban interaction). Just my gut, but I am a little optimistic. Everyone should still prepare for the worst, though. This is an incredibly dangerous situation, and even if it weakens further, the wind field should simply be that much larger.

EWRC is complete and eyewall is starting to contract some. Barring this going over Cuba, this will likely begin strengthening very soon. Eye is already starting to clear on IR.

[weathaguyry]

I haven't been on the board as much, because this is being talked about by just about everyone here in New York. God bless Florida, and everyone who may be affected by this, and my prayers are out for the people of Florida, and for some last minute unprecedented recurve.

[Etika]

air force recon stopped reporting about 2 hrs ago

All three ongoing Air Force recons stopped reporting within about 15 minutes, although the one at Katia came back recently. So it looks more like a central communication problem with AF.

[flamingosun]

This looks legit (re-tweeted by a trusted source) ... but where will they go?

 https://twitter.com/CedarPosts/status/906139677526241280



/quote]

Cozumel, probably.

Doesn't Katia make that a problem? Sorry, I haven't been following her track at all.

No. Katia is in the western side of the Bay of Campeche, heading WSW, towards Tampico
Disney Dream is currently underway in the Florida Straights, pushing 20 kts, and headed for the Yucatan Channel. LOTS of ships heading through the straights ahead of Irma this morning.

[flamingosun]

A number of cruise ships returned to their home port earlier than scheduled, disembarked their passengers, and are now taking their crews and vessels to safer waters.

[jpigott]

Here she comes. Outer rain bands starting to show up on Miami long range radar

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 1&loop=yes

[flamingosun]

Here she comes. Outer rain bands starting to show up on Miami long range radar

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 1&loop=yes

And passing right over Andros.

[Extratropical94]

NOAA 36
131500 2134N 07515W 7539 02167 9675 +144 +139 335112 114 075 009 00
131530 2135N 07513W 7500 02179 9640 +144 +143 333117 121 080 035 00
131600 2136N 07512W 7497 02149 9595 +151 +151 333119 124 087 043 00
131630 2137N 07510W 7532 02068 9548 +161 //// 334113 121 095 017 01
131700 2138N 07508W 7544 02024 9503 +171 //// 330092 096 102 007 01
131730 2139N 07507W 7512 02029 9462 +179 +171 322082 084 097 004 00
131800 2140N 07505W 7518 01990 9421 +194 +166 321077 081 084 003 00
131830 2141N 07503W 7499 01976 9384 +197 +162 323075 076 070 002 03
131900 2142N 07501W 7513 01933 9352 +194 +171 320068 075 060 003 00
131930 2144N 07500W 7514 01903 9317 +199 +193 317044 052 054 005 00
132000 2145N 07458W 7495 01910 9300 +195 //// 321029 035 037 005 01
132030 2146N 07456W 7530 01857 9288 +199 +193 323009 012 023 003 00
132100 2148N 07455W 7501 01885 9284 +201 +190 145005 009 026 001 03
132130 2149N 07454W 7514 01871 9284 +201 +191 138014 016 019 002 00
132200 2151N 07452W 7518 01868 9285 +200 +192 138020 022 020 002 00
132230 2153N 07451W 7515 01875 9287 +200 +195 131028 031 030 001 00
132300 2155N 07450W 7511 01887 9294 +201 +187 132043 051 040 002 00
132330 2156N 07448W 7524 01887 9309 +200 +185 132062 068 055 003 00
132400 2158N 07447W 7531 01895 9329 +199 +194 131075 083 080 005 00
132430 2200N 07446W 7518 01943 9371 +190 //// 130105 115 095 007 01

[DelrayMorris]

I guess it is good and means people are getting prepared but i thought this board would be hopping today and its really kind of a ghost town in here.

Yes, people are kinda freaking out a bit. I'm sure people are taking this last day or so to get everything in order. Besides that I myself am finding it hard to watch the news too much or read as much here because it's just making my anxiety sky rocket, and I am not normally an anxious person. Trying to just stay calm and take care of my family and property. Unplug some, and just get the important information needed to stay safe.

We tried to get out but our flight was cancelled. So we are weathering the storm in Delray Beach, in our concrete block house. I am scared and spend a lot of time doing stuff rather than thinking about it.

They just cut into PBSKids on WXEL to talk about the storm and I had a panic attack. I just can't talk about it right now, either.

[wicked_wx_watcher]

We have a potentially catastrophic and life threatening surge scenario developing on the west coast of Florida from Naples to Tampa if Irma makes a late northward turn. Hurricane warnings and mandatory evacuations have been slow on the west coast of Florida. Media attention has been slow. The storm surge scenario is much more dangerous on the west coast.

People are going to be in big, big trouble if the models are slightly wrong and this takes a late turn west.

I have family in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina and I've been monitoring closely. Lodging should be of great concern to those evacuating at the last minute. Hotels are full into NC and Tennessee. Best bet for those evacuating on west coast of Florida is to head west/northwest.

I can suggest using apps such as Trip Advisor or Booking.com for those seeking lodging info. It was huge help here with Harvey.

[Extratropical94]

NOAA 37
URNT15 KWBC 081334
NOAA2 2011A IRMA HDOB 37 20170908
132500 2201N 07445W 7518 01986 9413 +191 +168 129116 117 106 004 00
132530 2203N 07444W 7517 02025 9462 +177 +164 131117 118 113 002 00
132600 2204N 07442W 7501 02071 9500 +170 //// 135122 127 118 002 01
132630 2206N 07441W 7499 02106 9537 +167 //// 139130 136 124 016 05
132700 2207N 07440W 7379 02285 9586 +146 //// 133145 150 124 007 05
132730 2209N 07439W 7282 02428 9630 +133 //// 125142 143 113 046 05
132800 2210N 07438W 7297 02443 9669 +133 //// 128139 141 114 030 01
132830 2212N 07436W 7301 02472 9698 +137 //// 128130 134 107 017 01
132900 2213N 07435W 7450 02326 9728 +146 +142 126125 127 100 013 00
132930 2215N 07434W 7532 02252 9754 +152 +131 125119 120 093 005 00
133000 2216N 07433W 7533 02271 9774 +155 +135 125114 115 087 007 00
133030 2218N 07432W 7513 02313 9794 +150 +141 126110 112 087 008 03
133100 2219N 07431W 7529 02308 9814 +147 +139 126106 108 /// /// 03
133130 2221N 07430W 7515 02337 9828 +145 +143 123102 103 /// /// 03
133200 2222N 07429W 7520 02342 9839 +149 +137 125101 102 /// /// 03
133230 2224N 07427W 7513 02361 9851 +144 //// 130098 099 /// /// 05
133300 2225N 07426W 7515 02366 9864 +140 //// 130107 110 /// /// 05
133330 2227N 07425W 7510 02382 9876 +136 //// 124102 104 /// /// 05
133400 2228N 07424W 7523 02379 9892 +134 //// 123099 100 /// /// 05
133430 2230N 07423W 7516 02394 9899 +139 +129 125101 103 /// /// 03

[dandeliongum]

I would really appreciate some opinions. I posted yesterday saying that I have bad agoraphobia/panic attacks and my attempt to evacuate yesterday was not successful. However, it's a new day and I'm feeling like it's now or never. I'm not under voluntary/mandatory evac, but I simply don't want to go through this horrible experience.

If I leave around 7pm tonight and take the Turnpike up to the Disney area (booked a week long stay at a Disney resort), would this be a wise idea? Or is traffic on the turnpike so gridlocked that I'm better off staying put? I'm in west-ish Pembroke Pines if that helps at all. Aside from my own panic attacks, I have a wheelchair bound grandfather & 6 pets that I would be in charge of, so it would not be easy, but neither would riding it out. I know this decision is my own but I would love some input.

Thoughts?

[La Sirena]

Doesn't Katia make that a problem? Sorry, I haven't been following her track at all.

No. Katia is in the western side of the Bay of Campeche, heading WSW, towards Tampico
Disney Dream is currently underway in the Florida Straights, pushing 20 kts, and headed for the Yucatan Channel. LOTS of ships heading through the straights ahead of Irma this morning.

Heading through the Straits ahead of Irma is a terrifying thought...fair winds and following seas to them.

[dukeblue219]

For those wondering since this did come up yesterday, last night we experienced a G4-class geomagnetic storm, which is "severe," and a bit stronger than forecast. That level is strong enough to interfere with HF radio (often used for aircraft that are over the open ocean) and GPS reception. I have not heard of any specific issues from this storm, but it's something to keep in mind.

The satellites aren't going anywhere, your brain won't melt, and the recon aircraft aren't going to fall out of the sky, but spotty radio reception is not entirely unexpected.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation (yesterday morning we had an R3 radio blackout as well)

[shawn6304]

I guess it is good and means people are getting prepared but i thought this board would be hopping today and its really kind of a ghost town in here.

Yes, people are kinda freaking out a bit. I'm sure people are taking this last day or so to get everything in order. Besides that I myself am finding it hard to watch the news too much or read as much here because it's just making my anxiety sky rocket, and I am not normally an anxious person. Trying to just stay calm and take care of my family and property. Unplug some, and just get the important information needed to stay safe.

We tried to get out but our flight was cancelled. So we are weathering the storm in Delray Beach, in our concrete block house. I am scared and spend a lot of time doing stuff rather than thinking about it.

They just cut into PBSKids on WXEL to talk about the storm and I had a panic attack. I just can't talk about it right now, either.

while this kind of thing highlights the worst in people at times, fighting over gas or water, it also shines on how people come together in times like these, our neighborhood already has a group ready to go out on Monday and help people who need it, count on your neighbors , prayers and best wishes for you guys.

[ConvergenceZone]

They said on the tropical report that if crosses a bit further South into Cuba, it could mean the difference between a Cat 4 or a Cat 1 hitting Florida

[newtotex]

Is Irma going to be staying at Cat4 or is it forecast to re-intensify? From what I have seen posted it seems like conditions are about to get more favorable for intensification as it heads closer to FL

[forecasterjack]

Irma's inner core is still struggling with a hint of dry air. Likely downsloped off the mountains in SE Cuba. Hoping that continues but I think that's unlikely as the storm moves farther away. https://weather.us/satellite/745-w-213-n/satellite-water-vapor-superhd-5min.html#play

[Meteorcane]

Dumb question but what altitude does the NOAA plane fly relative to the air force plane? Am curious if the sfc/flight ratio is more impacted by the plane altitude or the current structure of Irma (namely when Irma was at peak intensity the sfc winds were ~5% lower than flight level, while now that is more 15-20%). I would guess the latter due to weakened convective processes, but don't want to say anything uniformed.