ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

There have been plenty of storms where EWRC take more than a full day to complete. I am not forecasting this, but it would not shock me to see this get down to a 3 or even a 2 before landfall and not recover (even without Cuban interaction). Just my gut, but I am a little optimistic. Everyone should still prepare for the worst, though. This is an incredibly dangerous situation, and even if it weakens further, the wind field should simply be that much larger.

Without Cuban interaction, this isn't going to happen any more than it's going to be a trillion dollar storm as someone was arguing last night after Maue made that ridiculous tweet. It's going to probably intensify since the ERC is complete and we're within 48 hours of landfall. Read GCANE and you will understand why.

[NDG]

Governor Rick Scott ordering the evacuation of residents around Lake Okeechobee.

[NDG]

There have been plenty of storms where EWRC take more than a full day to complete. I am not forecasting this, but it would not shock me to see this get down to a 3 or even a 2 before landfall and not recover (even without Cuban interaction). Just my gut, but I am a little optimistic. Everyone should still prepare for the worst, though. This is an incredibly dangerous situation, and even if it weakens further, the wind field should simply be that much larger.

Without Cuban interaction, this isn't going to happen any more than it's going to be a trillion dollar storm as someone was arguing last night after Maue made that ridiculous tweet. It's going to probably intensify since the ERC is complete and we're within 48 hours of landfall. Read GCANE and you will understand why.

I agree, most hurricanes intensify when they track over the very warm deep waters of the FL Straights and I think unfortunately Irma will take advantage of it because of a moist environment and little to no shear, also the trough to the north will help its outflow. I hope I'm wrong.

[CFLHurricane]

I guess it is good and means people are getting prepared but i thought this board would be hopping today and its really kind of a ghost town in here.

Yes, people are kinda freaking out a bit. I'm sure people are taking this last day or so to get everything in order. Besides that I myself am finding it hard to watch the news too much or read as much here because it's just making my anxiety sky rocket, and I am not normally an anxious person. Trying to just stay calm and take care of my family and property. Unplug some, and just get the important information needed to stay safe.

Amen! I love tracking tropical cyclones as much as the rest of us, but I'm just oversaturated at the moment. It's all about the waiting game now that we have a better track, and keeping busy so you don't go mad with cabin fever.

[Steve]

I guess it is good and means people are getting prepared but i thought this board would be hopping today and its really kind of a ghost town in here.

Yes, people are kinda freaking out a bit. I'm sure people are taking this last day or so to get everything in order. Besides that I myself am finding it hard to watch the news too much or read as much here because it's just making my anxiety sky rocket, and I am not normally an anxious person. Trying to just stay calm and take care of my family and property. Unplug some, and just get the important information needed to stay safe.

We tried to get out but our flight was cancelled. So we are weathering the storm in Delray Beach, in our concrete block house. I am scared and spend a lot of time doing stuff rather than thinking about it.

They just cut into PBSKids on WXEL to talk about the storm and I had a panic attack. I just can't talk about it right now, either.

Hang in their Morris. It's going to be a long 3 days for those of you left in South Florida. Pacing, anticipation, restless sleep then the storm. You'll be on adrenaline for a while. Take a breath every once in a while. Maybe your being there will help someone else out in some way. Best to you and your family.

[PandaCitrus]

Looks like it had a good north wobble and is back on the NHC forecast track. It was wobbling south of the points before.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Orlando here. Looks like on the current track we will get the right side (eye wall? not sure since the eye wall is so huge). My dad is in a mobile home in Kissimmee and being stubborn. Hoping to get him to leave. Praying we only get a 2 here because I'm not sure his place will hold up.

Oh, man. If he were mine, I'd try like the dickens to entice him to come visit me for a couple of days or so.

I plan to. If he hasn't agreed to or isn't on his way Saturday ( we're supposed to start getting stuff Sunday) , Ill just drive down there.

My neighbor had a similar situation with her uncle refusing to leave his mobile home. Exasperated, she finally went over there with a permanent marker and wrote her phone number on the inside of his arm. It kind of shocked him, but an hour later he showed up at her home. Best of luck getting your Dad safe, too.

[Extratropical94]

NOAA 38
URNT15 KWBC 081344
NOAA2 2011A IRMA HDOB 38 20170908
133500 2231N 07422W 7529 02390 9911 +136 +128 125101 103 /// /// 03
133530 2233N 07420W 7535 02385 9915 +140 +132 127098 100 /// /// 03
133600 2234N 07419W 7514 02420 9925 +139 +122 126096 098 /// /// 03
133630 2236N 07418W 7499 02443 9935 +136 +122 127097 098 /// /// 03
133700 2238N 07417W 7513 02435 9944 +134 +127 125099 101 /// /// 03
133730 2239N 07416W 7519 02431 9953 +133 +116 127096 096 /// /// 03
133800 2241N 07415W 7530 02424 9956 +135 +115 129095 095 /// /// 03
133830 2242N 07413W 7515 02446 9961 +137 +106 131089 089 /// /// 03
133900 2244N 07412W 7503 02465 9963 +140 +106 131085 086 /// /// 03
133930 2246N 07411W 7499 02470 9969 +137 +126 128083 086 /// /// 03
134000 2247N 07410W 7521 02455 9979 +132 //// 122083 086 /// /// 05
134030 2249N 07408W 7515 02465 9982 +135 +126 123082 083 /// /// 03
134100 2250N 07407W 7512 02478 9993 +130 +123 131086 088 /// /// 03
134130 2252N 07406W 7509 02487 9996 +136 +115 130085 086 /// /// 03
134200 2254N 07405W 7530 02463 9995 +143 +115 131083 085 055 007 03
134230 2255N 07403W 7508 02493 0006 +137 +113 131081 081 054 005 00
134300 2257N 07402W 7526 02480 0008 +141 +109 128078 080 051 006 00
134330 2258N 07401W 7516 02494 0005 +147 +109 124075 076 051 006 03
134400 2300N 07400W 7513 02500 0007 +147 +112 122076 078 /// /// 03
134430 2302N 07359W 7529 02484 0012 +146 +107 122073 074 /// /// 03

[flamingosun]

Doesn't Katia make that a problem? Sorry, I haven't been following her track at all.

No. Katia is in the western side of the Bay of Campeche, heading WSW, towards Tampico
Disney Dream is currently underway in the Florida Straights, pushing 20 kts, and headed for the Yucatan Channel. LOTS of ships heading through the straights ahead of Irma this morning.

Heading through the Straits ahead of Irma is a terrifying thought...fair winds and following seas to them.

INDEED!
That location and heading reading is several hours old now, so, hopefully, they are in even better shape at this time.
There are NUMEROUS vessels of various types both ahead of and behind them. The presence of Jose really narrows the options for anyone trying to escape by sea.
NO ONE wants to see another El Faro!

[Extratropical94]

USAF VDM
URNT12 KNHC 081348
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 08/12:50:10Z
B. 21 deg 47 min N
074 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 2461 m
D. 111 kt
E. 269 deg 12 nm
F. 007 deg 131 kt
G. 269 deg 18 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 9 C / 3050 m
J. 17 C / 3043 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C40
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 2111A IRMA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 148 KT 050 / 26 NM 12:57:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 148 KT 050 / 26 NM 12:57:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 070 / 6 KT

[nascarfan999]

I would really appreciate some opinions. I posted yesterday saying that I have bad agoraphobia/panic attacks and my attempt to evacuate yesterday was not successful. However, it's a new day and I'm feeling like it's now or never. I'm not under voluntary/mandatory evac, but I simply don't want to go through this horrible experience.

If I leave around 7pm tonight and take the Turnpike up to the Disney area (booked a week long stay at a Disney resort), would this be a wise idea? Or is traffic on the turnpike so gridlocked that I'm better off staying put? I'm in west-ish Pembroke Pines if that helps at all. Aside from my own panic attacks, I have a wheelchair bound grandfather & 6 pets that I would be in charge of, so it would not be easy, but neither would riding it out. I know this decision is my own but I would love some input.

Thoughts?

Not sure exactly where you are, but I assume somewhere in the Miami metro. The Turnpike has been consistently heavy for nearly 36 hours now in places and I would recommend using other routes such as I-95 to 520/528 or even finding back roads to make the trip. If you do decide to go, make sure you have a full tank of gas when you leave so you don't run out on the way.

[Extratropical94]

NOAA SW EYEWALL DROP
UZNT13 KWBC 081346
XXAA 58138 99216 70751 08015 99949 25604 28583 00/// ///// /////
92231 23804 28116 85969 20406 31630 88999 77999
31313 09608 81317
61616 NOAA2 2011A IRMA OB 22
62626 EYEWALL 225 MBL WND 28612 AEV 33304 DLM WND 31104 949753 WL
150 28599 083 REL 2164N07514W 131706 SPG 2157N07504W 132101 =
XXBB 58138 99216 70751 08015 00949 25604 11850 20406 22753 17601
21212 00949 28583 11945 28095 22926 28115 33919 27631 44915 28117
55911 28621 66906 29115 77899 29119 88892 29613 99888 30121 11884
30122 22881 30131 33879 30127 44873 30632 55868 30644 66859 31152
77850 31630 88827 32604 99819 33619 11812 33098 22753 33088
31313 09608 81317
61616 NOAA2 2011A IRMA OB 22
62626 EYEWALL 225 MBL WND 28612 AEV 33304 DLM WND 31104 949753 WL
150 28599 083 REL 2164N07514W 131706 SPG 2157N07504W 132101 =

[wicked_wx_watcher]

I would really appreciate some opinions. I posted yesterday saying that I have bad agoraphobia/panic attacks and my attempt to evacuate yesterday was not successful. However, it's a new day and I'm feeling like it's now or never. I'm not under voluntary/mandatory evac, but I simply don't want to go through this horrible experience.

If I leave around 7pm tonight and take the Turnpike up to the Disney area (booked a week long stay at a Disney resort), would this be a wise idea? Or is traffic on the turnpike so gridlocked that I'm better off staying put? I'm in west-ish Pembroke Pines if that helps at all. Aside from my own panic attacks, I have a wheelchair bound grandfather & 6 pets that I would be in charge of, so it would not be easy, but neither would riding it out. I know this decision is my own but I would love some input.

Thoughts?

Not sure how traffic flows in Florida during an evacuation. Based on past experience here in Texas, those that made last minute choice to leave had a much better driving experience than those who left 24-36 hours earlier.....especially if you had full tanks of gas (and carrying extra containers if possible). The traffic was much less and moved faster. If they've enacted contraflow....even better.

The downsides were no gas availability for miles, most fast food places were closed, so pack provisions. Download a hotel app like Trip Advisor or Booking.com for lodging and Gas Buddy for availability of gas. I posted earlier that northbound lodging is full as far north as North Carolina and Tennessee. I would get to I-10 and head west and then north starting at Mississippi. Lodging availability will be more of a challenge in eastern Alabama.

I understand your anxiety! Stay calm. Good luck!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Latest IR showing significant warming around the eye, while the old eye is becoming more elliptical and cloud filled.. could be the start of the new eye coming out.

[flamingosun]

You can Text FLPREPARES to 888777 to receive updates via text

[Extratropical94]

NOAA mission over
URNT15 KWBC 081354
NOAA2 2011A IRMA HDOB 39 20170908
134500 2303N 07357W 7514 02501 0011 +148 +104 123071 072 /// /// 03
134530 2305N 07356W 7527 02491 0015 +147 +114 124075 077 /// /// 03
134600 2306N 07355W 7529 02488 0013 +151 +106 125076 079 /// /// 03
134630 2308N 07354W 7517 02503 0017 +147 +105 127081 082 /// /// 03
134700 2311N 07355W 7515 02508 0017 +151 +103 126085 086 045 002 03
134730 2313N 07356W 7517 02508 0023 +149 +087 125086 087 044 002 00
134800 2315N 07357W 7470 02558 0029 +140 +082 123084 085 044 002 03
134830 2317N 07400W 7271 02792 0027 +128 +089 124079 081 045 002 00
134900 2319N 07402W 7065 03030 0027 +114 +086 121079 079 045 002 00
134930 2320N 07405W 6872 03263 0026 +100 +071 120079 079 043 002 00
135000 2322N 07408W 6688 03484 0027 +085 +058 120080 080 043 003 00
135030 2323N 07410W 6494 03731 0026 +071 +040 121076 077 043 002 00
135100 2325N 07413W 6343 03926 0020 +063 +027 120078 080 044 002 00
135130 2327N 07416W 6211 04097 0018 +054 +022 118081 081 043 001 00
135200 2328N 07418W 6046 04319 0021 +038 +018 115077 077 043 001 00
135230 2330N 07421W 5922 04489 0019 +029 +011 114076 077 043 001 00
135300 2331N 07424W 5803 04652 0008 +026 +002 113075 076 044 001 00
135330 2333N 07427W 5702 04799 0015 +014 -001 113076 077 044 001 00
135400 2335N 07429W 5598 04947 0014 +006 -003 113075 076 043 001 00
135430 2337N 07432W 5482 05118 0227 +004 -012 108072 073 040 004 00

[GCANE]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 13:49Z

Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)

Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 13:20:45Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°47'N 74°55'W (21.7833N 74.9167W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 104kts (~ 119.7mph)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 928mb (27.41 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,468m (8,097ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,454m (8,051ft)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles)

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 150kts (~ 172.6mph) which was observed 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NE (35°) from the flight level center at 13:27:02Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 0° at 0kts (From the N at 0mph)

[GCANE]

[Extratropical94]

USAF CENTER DROP - 927 mb / 6 kt
UZNT13 KNHC 081355
XXAA 58137 99218 70748 08014 99927 27803 07006 00/// ///// /////
92018 27803 08006 85769 24202 08507 70459 ///// 06001 88999 77999
31313 09608 81250
61616 AF304 2111A IRMA OB 09
62626 CENTER MBL WND 10007 AEV 33304 DLM WND 09005 926697 WL150 1
0007 080 REL 2178N07481W 125009 SPG 2178N07482W 125405 =
XXBB 58138 99218 70748 08014 00927 27803 11850 24202 22715 18005
33708 ///// 44697 /////
21212 00927 07006 11850 08507 22697 00000
31313 09608 81250
61616 AF304 2111A IRMA OB 09
62626 CENTER MBL WND 10007 AEV 33304 DLM WND 09005 926697 WL150 1
0007 080 REL 2178N07481W 125009 SPG 2178N07482W 125405 =

[dukeblue219]

Latest IR showing significant warming around the eye, while the old eye is becoming more elliptical and cloud filled.. could be the start of the new eye coming out.

Yep, the N side of the eye is really opening up on IR. The next couple hours will be interesting to watch and see what happens with the eye.
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1000&y=1000&z=0&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=30&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider