ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[flamingosun]

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[nativefloridian]

I would really appreciate some opinions. I posted yesterday saying that I have bad agoraphobia/panic attacks and my attempt to evacuate yesterday was not successful. However, it's a new day and I'm feeling like it's now or never. I'm not under voluntary/mandatory evac, but I simply don't want to go through this horrible experience.

If I leave around 7pm tonight and take the Turnpike up to the Disney area (booked a week long stay at a Disney resort), would this be a wise idea? Or is traffic on the turnpike so gridlocked that I'm better off staying put? I'm in west-ish Pembroke Pines if that helps at all. Aside from my own panic attacks, I have a wheelchair bound grandfather & 6 pets that I would be in charge of, so it would not be easy, but neither would riding it out. I know this decision is my own but I would love some input.

Thoughts?

Not sure exactly where you are, but I assume somewhere in the Miami metro. The Turnpike has been consistently heavy for nearly 36 hours now in places and I would recommend using other routes such as I-95 to 520/528 or even finding back roads to make the trip. If you do decide to go, make sure you have a full tank of gas when you leave so you don't run out on the way.

Not sure what traffic is like on I-95 North today, but another alternative to 520/528 is to take 95 north to Route 60 (Yeehaw Jct) and head west to 192 then take 192 north to Orlando. You might get lucky waiting until today, but it's like rolling the dice as far as the traffic is concerned. Just make sure you have a full tank of gas. I did hear, in my particular location, that some gas stations had no wait lines because the mad rush had occurred earlier in the week. Whatever you decide to do, please stay safe! You can also check here for traffic info: http://www.nbcmiami.com/traffic/

[Tireman4]

I am reposting this...:

For the newbies, make sure to put in your hometown or where you are. That will help the pro and amateur mets help with your questions. Thanks.

[caneman]

Does anyone think Tampa, St. Pete and Clearwater will go under watches.at 11?

[Scorpion]

Feeling better here in Jupiter, looks like we get strong TS winds on the current track.

[Steve]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 13:49Z

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 928mb (27.41 inHg)

While I should have boycotted Weatherbell this AM, I went ahead and watched Bastardi. He seems to think this will challenge 1935 for the lowest pressure ever to landfall in the US and wasn't criticizing the GFS's 890's that much. While I realize he tends to overblow things from time to time due to his excitement, he's still pretty good. Many of the quality models have been showing for days that Irma would strengthen just North of Cuba after a brief west move. With the ERC out of the way and it being unlikely we'll have another since we're around 45 hours to landfall, do you have any thoughts on lowest pressure we hit before landfall?

I was thinking 912-915 and probably coming up a millibar or two per hour in the last 6-12 before landfall so probably landfalling somewhere in the low-mid 920's. That sound about right to you assuming the NHC track?

[RL3AO]

Does anyone think Tampa, St. Pete and Clearwater will go under watches.at 11?

They might. They'll end up in a hurricane warning eventually.

[mph101]

Here she comes. Outer rain bands starting to show up on Miami long range radar

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 1&loop=yes

Currently on a android tablet its very annoying that the local NWS offices still use flash for loops. Which has no pluggin available. By the way tampa radar went down yesterday afternoon. It is still not back. If its out the closest radar will be Melbourne, FL.

[Bunkertor]

For those wondering since this did come up yesterday, last night we experienced a G4-class geomagnetic storm, which is "severe," and a bit stronger than forecast. That level is strong enough to interfere with HF radio (often used for aircraft that are over the open ocean) and GPS reception. I have not heard of any specific issues from this storm, but it's something to keep in mind.

The satellites aren't going anywhere, your brain won't melt, and the recon aircraft aren't going to fall out of the sky, but spotty radio reception is not entirely unexpected.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation (yesterday morning we had an R3 radio blackout as well)

Ui, 10 minutes away from G4 impact

[Steve]

Here she comes. Outer rain bands starting to show up on Miami long range radar

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 1&loop=yes

Currently on a android tablet its very annoying that the local NWS offices still use flash for loops. Which has no pluggin available. By the way tampa radar went down yesterday afternoon. It is still not back. If its out the closest radar will be Melbourne, FL.

Yeah, I hate that on mobile as well. You can go to the regional and just zoom in, but it's usually 10-15 minutes behind.

[GCANE]

Theta_E Ridge is still there, over the Keys and Strait

[Blown Away]

Irma appears to be slowing and may come up short of next forecast point, not by much...

[rolldamntoad]

For those wondering since this did come up yesterday, last night we experienced a G4-class geomagnetic storm, which is "severe," and a bit stronger than forecast. That level is strong enough to interfere with HF radio (often used for aircraft that are over the open ocean) and GPS reception. I have not heard of any specific issues from this storm, but it's something to keep in mind.

The satellites aren't going anywhere, your brain won't melt, and the recon aircraft aren't going to fall out of the sky, but spotty radio reception is not entirely unexpected.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation (yesterday morning we had an R3 radio blackout as well)

Also going to mess with HF amateur (ham) radio communications, which are often used during emergencies. Saw some reports yesterday that the bands were pretty much dead. (I'm licensed, but only a Tech, and don't know much about HF.)

[p1nheadlarry]

Theta_E Ridge is still there, over the Keys and Strait

Means Irma still will have large westward component?

[GCANE]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 13:49Z

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 928mb (27.41 inHg)

While I should have boycotted Weatherbell this AM, I went ahead and watched Bastardi. He seems to think this will challenge 1935 for the lowest pressure ever to landfall in the US and wasn't criticizing the GFS's 890's that much. While I realize he tends to overblow things from time to time due to his excitement, he's still pretty good. Many of the quality models have been showing for days that Irma would strengthen just North of Cuba after a brief west move. With the ERC out of the way and it being unlikely we'll have another since we're around 45 hours to landfall, do you have any thoughts on lowest pressure we hit before landfall?

I was thinking 912-915 and probably coming up a millibar or two per hour in the last 6-12 before landfall so probably landfalling somewhere in the low-mid 920's. That sound about right to you assuming the NHC track?

I think is about right. Lots of ingredients for re-intensification on approach.

[eastcoastFL]

Latest map from navy based on nhc track has Irma 28NM From Orlando with winds at 90knots and gust to 110knots

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 92W.INVEST,

[GCANE]

Theta_E Ridge is still there, over the Keys and Strait

Means Irma still will have large westward component?

That parameter doesn't steer it. It effects intensification.

[sponger]

We have a potentially catastrophic and life threatening surge scenario developing on the west coast of Florida from Naples to Tampa if Irma makes a late northward turn. Hurricane warnings and mandatory evacuations have been slow on the west coast of Florida. Media attention has been slow. The storm surge scenario is much more dangerous on the west coast.

People are going to be in big, big trouble if the models are slightly wrong and this takes a late turn west.

I have family in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina and I've been monitoring closely. Lodging should be of great concern to those evacuating at the last minute. Hotels are full into NC and Tennessee. Best bet for those evacuating on west coast of Florida is to head west/northwest.

I can suggest using apps such as Trip Advisor or Booking.com for those seeking lodging info. It was huge help here with Harvey.

Staybridge inn and Suites in Tallahassee just had a cancellation!

[mph101]

Irma's inner core is still struggling with a hint of dry air. Likely downsloped off the mountains in SE Cuba. Hoping that continues but I think that's unlikely as the storm moves farther away. https://weather.us/satellite/745-w-213-n/satellite-water-vapor-superhd-5min.html#play

Or perhaps some one is seeding the storm? Trying to disrupt and weaken it?

[HedwigTramp]

A number of cruise ships returned to their home port earlier than scheduled, disembarked their passengers, and are now taking their crews and vessels to safer waters.

The safest place for a ship during a hurricane is at sea. Those ships will just cruise in circles till the storm is over. There were several ships within 270-300 miles of Irma when she battered the St Thomas area.
area.
The bigger question is: where will they return to if the Florida ports are heavily damaged.

Gulf swells animation map
http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-of-Mexico- ... type=swell