ATL: IRMA - Models

[northjaxpro]

Iam thinking the EURO solution will unfortunately be closer to verify by the end of this critical 120 hour period. I think the ridging currently in place will be strong enough to steer Irma to at least 80 degrees Longitude or so before the northward turn . I believe more and more that Irma will come up through the Florida Keys, after scraping the coast of Cuba near Havana, and move north right up the spine of the peninsula. I think the ridge will build down from the Northeast U.S. to force Irma in time to move on a N/NW header thereafter.

This is my thinking. This is not an official forecast of course.

Point of the matter is that where Irma's eyewall will make landfall wherever that may be because if and when landfall occurs, the likely catastrophic damage is going to ensue and the worst scenario imaginable!! Plus, Irma will be so massive in size that her wind field near the end of the current 120 hour forecast cycle is going to bring tropical storm and hurricane winds well away from her center. She does not have to make a landfall for major impacts in this situation. So many people unfortunately stand to potentially be impacted by this monster storm.

Please prepare completely NOW folks ahead of this monster!!

[birddogsc]

I predict the ECMWF follows the GFS path except a tad bit east. Landfall in Myrtle Beach. East trends will happen in the ensembles as well.

That would be a shift of several hundred miles. With the UK and GFS moving east, I don't see the EURO shifting that far. However, I would not be surprised by an east shift in the next EURO run.

Actually the UKMET and GFS shifted slightly west closer to Florida than the earlier runs. Euro will shift east I believe but not a huge shift..I think the models are starting to consolidate on the general area and shifts from now on, if any, will be slight....that is unless CMC swings back to the Gulf

Thanks... I flipped my cardinal directions!

Yeah, the CMC is likely to send it anywhere but were it actually ends up.

Gonzo will be airborne twice tomorrow. That signals to me that our friends at the NHC really want better data about that oceanic high.

[M3gaMatch]

HWRF @ 81hrs slightly slower this run, very similar to 18z otherwise and heading WNW. Still a full degree north than 12z though.

[caneseddy]

HWRF at 81 hours is north of Cuba getting ready to pass south of Andros Island...may be another Florida Keys landfall

[txwatcher91]

HWRF is a bit north of its previous run. I think the overall common theme in tonight’s runs is the center stays further north more over the Bahamas instead of diving wsw into Cuba. The UK still brings it pretty close or just over the edge briefly but doesn’t traverse it across a good chunk of the area. This is very concerning as it would give Irma more time over water with less disruption from land.

[caneseddy]

HMON landfall at Key Largo...eye heading north right through Miami-Dade County, then heads up the coast and exits north of Cape Canaveral...identical to the GFS from several runs ago.

[TheStormExpert]

Any reason why the 00z GEFS Ensembles haven't loaded yet on Tropical Tidbits?

[Shawee]

Yes, but unfortunately the once they come off of cuba with these temps, the mountain effect doesn't seem to last long. Dry air entrainment notwithstanding

[TheStormExpert]

00z GEFS Ensembles trending east of Florida.

[caneseddy]

HWRF at 93 hours is south of Andros Island towards the Keys

[Hurricaneman]

HWRF at 93 hours is south of Andros Island towards the Keys

also seems to be moving more north at that point

[TheStormExpert]

HWRF at 93 hours is south of Andros Island towards the Keys

Turn has begun @96hrs., looks like it'll miss Florida to the east.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Think it is trending East. Wouldn't suprise me...the trough is coming down quick...it is the New Orleans area now. It's a wide trough...just getting here.

[txwatcher91]

HWRF shifted from 81w to about 78.3w for the same hour. A pretty big east shift. Looks like it’ll miss Florida to the east now.

[brghteys1216]

Definitely a big E shift for HWRF.

[meriland29]

Euro running

[txwatcher91]

HMON shifts east a tad as well with the landfall point on South Florida. Cuba is looking less likely. Euro will be telling.

[Bocadude85]

Definitely a big E shift for HWRF.

The HWRF has Irma moving drastically slower on the 0z run vs the 18z run.

[caneseddy]

Definitely a big E shift for HWRF.

Even with that shift east, South Florida gets Cat 1 winds

[caneseddy]

HMON shifts east a tad as well with the landfall point on South Florida. Cuba is looking less likely. Euro will be telling.

HMON pretty much obliterates South Florida