ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

2:00 PM AST Mon Sep 18
Location: 14.9°N 60.4°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

[tolakram]

What does it mean? A wooble?

Possible EWRC starting?

WHAT IS THAT?

A wobble means the storm moves side to side and not straight on the track. Not meaningful if way otu at sea but when in close to land a wobble can mean the difference from getting hit or missed by the eye.

An EWRC usually happens when the eye is too small to last long so an outer eyewall forms and the inner one slowly fades. This can help reduce the winds for a time but after it's done the storm is usually larger and just as strong.

Good luck Gusty, please stay safe!

[Aric Dunn]

I dont see any real signs of a ERC yet. but given the size of the eye I would not be surprised if one started in the in the next several hours..

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

[chris_fit]

Slightly N @ 48 hrs - edit sorry meant to post in models thread - plz delete if desired

[NDG]

Impressive.

[GCANE]

Distinct eye

[tolakram]

live visible

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-24-1-100

[BYG Jacob]

Distinct eye

That buzz saw look

[1900hurricane]

Starting to get some dark grey poking through the eye on the 1745Z BD image from GOES-13. DT is 5.5 (~100 kt) for DG eye embedded in B and surrounded by W. That's close to, but a little behind recon data.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wondering what's the story with the recon data from Maria... haven't seen anything from any planes since 16z.

[dukeblue219]

Wondering what's the story with the recon data from Maria... haven't seen anything from any planes since 16z.

There's no recon currently active. Next plane arrives in the center around 7:30pm EDT. That said, the HDOB data from the last AF plane did seem to cut out, although they still transmitted dropsonde and vortex data.

[Aric Dunn]

Wondering what's the story with the recon data from Maria... haven't seen anything from any planes since 16z.

There's no recon currently active. Next plane arrives in the center around 7:30pm EDT. That said, the HDOB data from the last AF plane did seem to cut out, although they still transmitted dropsonde and vortex data.

there really should be continuous planes right now.. will likely miss peak intensity

[MGC]

Impressive hurricane, epic 2017 hurricane season. Looks to me the eye has wobbled a bit to the north according to Martinique radar. Looks almost inevitable that Dominica is going to take the brunt of Maria's wrath.....MGC

[RL3AO]

Wondering what's the story with the recon data from Maria... haven't seen anything from any planes since 16z.

There's no recon currently active. Next plane arrives in the center around 7:30pm EDT. That said, the HDOB data from the last AF plane did seem to cut out, although they still transmitted dropsonde and vortex data.

there really should be continuous planes right now.. will likely miss peak intensity

Should they be? Yes. But they're currently tasked with flying into two hurricanes and were tasked to fly into Norma today before it was canceled. All of this after one of the craziest months the hurricane hunters have ever seen. We don't know what kind of personnel or maintenance issues they could be dealing with right now. We obviously don't want tired pilots or planes needing maintenance flying into a hurricane. We have satellite and radar.

[dukeblue219]

Wondering what's the story with the recon data from Maria... haven't seen anything from any planes since 16z.

There's no recon currently active. Next plane arrives in the center around 7:30pm EDT. That said, the HDOB data from the last AF plane did seem to cut out, although they still transmitted dropsonde and vortex data.

there really should be continuous planes right now.. will likely miss peak intensity

I suspect NOAA and USAF folks would be happy to have funding for it, but you know how it goes. I see that two of today's scheduled P-3 missions to Jose were cancelled in tomorrow's plan, which leads me to wonder if they're being repositioned to support additional Marie flights?

[Aric Dunn]

There's no recon currently active. Next plane arrives in the center around 7:30pm EDT. That said, the HDOB data from the last AF plane did seem to cut out, although they still transmitted dropsonde and vortex data.

there really should be continuous planes right now.. will likely miss peak intensity

Should they be? Yes. But they're currently tasked with flying into two hurricanes and were tasked to fly into Norma today before it was canceled. All of this after one of the craziest months the hurricane hunters have ever seen. We don't know what kind of personnel or maintenance issues they could be dealing with right now. We obviously don't want tired pilots or planes needing maintenance flying into a hurricane. We have satellite and radar.

yes that is all well and good and common sense.. was just a simple statement..

[SouthDadeFish]

Raw Dvorak T numbers are shooting way up now that the eye is clearing out:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 SEP 2017 Time : 180039 UTC
Lat : 14:47:46 N Lon : 60:25:46 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 973.1mb/ 87.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 5.3 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -29.5C Cloud Region Temp : -73.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[Aric Dunn]

eyewall almost a solid ring of very intense convection. likely hitting peak winds in the next 6 to 8 hours..

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

[Aric Dunn]

anyone have reporting stations, web cams etc... from those islands ?

[TheBurn]

eyewall almost a solid ring of very intense convection. likely hitting peak winds in the next 6 to 8 hours..

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... f_com.html

ok i know i'm blind but it looks to me like she's feeling the tug north on those last cpl frames