ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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mike2kt
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7801 Postby mike2kt » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:00 am

znel52 wrote:125700 2203N 07429W 6956 02765 9612 +091 +090 145141 147 132 021 03
125730 2205N 07428W 6975 02771 9653 +080 +078 141144 148 144 039 03
125800 2206N 07427W 6968 02804 9692 +070 +061 143137 140 141 036 03


What does the 03 at the end indicate? 05 means flagged correct? This looks off.


That last column is all flags.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouthdobs_2007.shtml


FF:
Quality control flags.
First column indicates status of positional variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 Lat/lon questionable
2 Geopotential altitude or static pressure questionable
3 Both lat/lon and GA/PS questionable

Second column indicates status of meteorological variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 T or TD questionable
2 Flight-level winds questionable
3 SFMR parameter(s) questionable
4 T/TD and FL winds questionable
5 T/TD and SFMR questionable
6 FL winds and SFMR questionable
9 T/TD, FL winds, and SFMR questionable
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7802 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:00 am

outer eye fully closed and intensifying. little to nothing left of inner eyewall now. lets hope cuba disrupts any deepening ..... this has the potential to deepen rapidly once the ERC is complete ( very soon) ..

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7803 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:01 am

The shifts are within the NHC error margins, but the NHC is near their maximum error mark with the shift from 11am yesterday to today...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Main Recon Thread (Data only)

#7805 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:01 am

USAF 36
URNT15 KNHC 081455
AF304 2111A IRMA HDOB 36 20170908
144400 2135N 07458W 6953 02804 9657 +083 +044 223114 116 107 042 00
144430 2134N 07457W 6975 02804 9701 +071 +035 219114 116 099 015 00
144500 2133N 07456W 6964 02843 9724 +075 +025 217110 112 092 008 00
144530 2132N 07455W 6965 02863 9729 +094 +017 218104 107 091 005 00
144600 2131N 07454W 6969 02876 9744 +099 +012 218101 103 086 001 00
144630 2130N 07452W 6966 02899 9765 +098 +010 220097 100 081 001 00
144700 2129N 07451W 6965 02917 9792 +092 +011 222093 096 078 003 00
144730 2128N 07450W 6969 02923 9805 +092 +013 218088 091 076 002 00
144800 2127N 07449W 6974 02931 9818 +093 +014 221084 088 076 007 00
144830 2126N 07448W 6970 02946 9818 +102 +014 219078 081 076 002 00
144900 2124N 07446W 6965 02962 9838 +094 +015 222075 077 074 002 00
144930 2123N 07445W 6960 02973 9860 +082 +015 226071 075 073 015 00
145000 2122N 07444W 6977 02963 9869 +081 +013 224077 079 074 014 00
145030 2121N 07443W 6956 02999 9870 +086 +010 227071 077 074 008 00
145100 2120N 07441W 6973 02979 9876 +089 +007 227068 070 075 008 00
145130 2118N 07440W 6966 02995 9888 +086 +005 229070 071 074 009 00
145200 2117N 07439W 6968 02996 9897 +083 +003 232069 075 074 008 00
145230 2116N 07437W 6961 03011 9911 +077 +002 229062 066 073 009 00
145300 2115N 07436W 6974 03004 9920 +075 -000 234062 063 070 009 00
145330 2113N 07435W 6960 03028 9929 +075 -003 232064 066 070 013 00
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7806 Postby pcolaman » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:03 am

Haven't seen the updated maps yet on nhc site.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7807 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:03 am

Forecast from 72 hours ago. Had it as a 135 kt cat 4 this morning. Verified as a 130 kt cat 4.

Image

Had a 46 nmi error vs the 5 year average of 110 nmi.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7808 Postby Otown_Wx » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:04 am

I want to ask if the track how it is currently eye passing west of Orlando will it be better or worst since will be in the north east quadrant?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7809 Postby BucMan2 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:04 am

Why haven't warnings and watches been put up on the west coast of Florida from Sarasota north like St. Pete and Tampa etc.?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7810 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:04 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7811 Postby tailgater » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:05 am



Just catching up a bit, but WOW I sure hope that's not a Katrina/Rita scenario. I guess OTS is no longer a possibility. I will not be affected and I'm still overwhelmed a bit. Good luck Fla., Bahamas and Cuba.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7812 Postby pcolaman » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:06 am

BucMan2 wrote:Why haven't warnings and watches been put up on the west coast of Florida from Sarasota north like St. Pete and Tampa etc.?


I assume due to timing
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7813 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:07 am

BucMan2 wrote:Why haven't warnings and watches been put up on the west coast of Florida from Sarasota north like St. Pete and Tampa etc.?

Watches up at 11am for Tampa
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7814 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:07 am

BucMan2 wrote:Why haven't warnings and watches been put up on the west coast of Florida from Sarasota north like St. Pete and Tampa etc.?


Hurricane Watch
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... bKx64eWxbY
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7815 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:07 am

RL3AO wrote:Forecast from 72 hours ago. Had it as a 135 kt cat 4 this morning. Verified as a 130 kt cat 4.

Image

Had a 46 nmi error vs the 5 year average of 110 nmi.


Agreed! Last 24 hours had nearly twice that 46 nmi error...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7816 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:08 am

What's going on the last few frames with the dark gray the middle?

[img]
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif[/img]
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7817 Postby miamijaaz » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:09 am

Predicting when a turn will occur is a likely a lot more difficult than predicting movement under a ridge...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7818 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:09 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7819 Postby ronyan » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:09 am

meriland29 wrote:What's going on the last few frames with the dark gray the middle?

[img]
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif[/img]


It looks like the inner eyewall may be decaying, this cycle could be over soon.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#7820 Postby Centralflamama » Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:10 am

Anyone willing to speculate what we can expect in Polk county? We have SO many manufactured homes/communities in this area. I fear those folks don't get to shelters and we see mass devastation. All news channels locally are calling for residents who have safe homes to shelter in place and leave the shelter space for homeless/manufactured home folks. Let's not even get started on all the old oaks in the area, that's our main reason for bunkering down at my dads place.
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