ATL: IRMA - Models

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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7821 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:23 am

Much like the GFS.
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WilmingtonSandbar
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7822 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:23 am

Trough is going to pull it right into the Carolinas, like I feared.
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MatthewsRevenge

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7823 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:23 am

Spoke too soon, looks like it moves east here but it nearly makes landfall at SE FL.

Image

Still could move NW though. But seeing as it is 24 hours, I don't think the pressure looks right (same with GFS' pressure).
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7824 Postby meriland29 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:24 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7825 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:24 am

fox13weather wrote:Eyewall may never touch coast on this run ....


Biscayne Bay to Jupiter Inlet and that looks to be about it, barring a swing back to the NNW, which I don't see.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7826 Postby brghteys1216 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:24 am

What is causing the E shift in the models?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7827 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:25 am

As expected, the Euro has shifted towards the GFS solution. The 18z GFS was too Far East but the 00z run was much closer to where it should be. UK, GFS, Euro all now agree on east Florida track. Being that this is under 100 hours from the N turn the confidence in this solution will increase quickly if we see consistency now.
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MatthewsRevenge

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7828 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:25 am

^^ Might be due to the shortwave?

Bahamas gets hit hard here:
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7829 Postby psyclone » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:26 am

it would be reasonable to expect the NHC advisory to bend right a bit more at 5 and if guidance continues in that direction more shifts right thereafter.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7830 Postby M3gaMatch » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:26 am

Carolinas I reckon. Surely it misses the trough in the NE.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7831 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:27 am

brghteys1216 wrote:What is causing the E shift in the models?


I mentioned it a few pages back but was ridiculed for pointing out the new changes on the models tonight. They all came in with a slightly slower trough and strong energy dipping down from the Midwest. This is a trend the NAM first picked up on and other models are finally catching on. This is why the NAM is quite useful for Synoptics inside 48 hours... Hope this helps!

Image
Last edited by txwatcher91 on Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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MatthewsRevenge

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7832 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:27 am

^ It could still go up N. I don't know if it's strong enough to go further east.
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p1nheadlarry
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7833 Postby p1nheadlarry » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:28 am

MatthewsRevenge wrote:^^ Might be due to the shortwave?

Bahamas gets hit hard here:
Image


I think so. Unfortunately they're not as a easy to predict as your normal trough axes are from what I understand (someone correct me if they could), but we have another day.
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MatthewsRevenge

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7834 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:29 am

Euro seems to be imitating GFS' 12z run here:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7835 Postby meriland29 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:29 am

looks to hit almost exactly where GFS expects..


Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7836 Postby brghteys1216 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:29 am

Odds of W shift happening again?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7837 Postby M3gaMatch » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:30 am

yep, pulled in by both the trough in the S and the ridge building to its north.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7838 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:30 am

Amazing how the Euro shifted to the lowly GFS... verification scores aren’t everything...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7839 Postby sponger » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:31 am

A much better result for Florida. Worse for GA, NC/SC
Last edited by sponger on Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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MatthewsRevenge

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7840 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:31 am

brghteys1216 wrote:Odds of W shift happening again?


What? On this run? Maybe but I'm not gonna jinx it.
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