ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kat5]

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Cloud tops are really warming now. Cuba already effecting her?

EWRC. If anything it seems she'll be done before this evening.

[norva]

With the straits ahead of it I am not counting my blessings yet. I still think it will make another run for 5, though I hope I am very wrong.

[tolakram]

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Cloud tops are really warming now. Cuba already effecting her?

Mid day, end of an ERC, plus some inflow issues with Cuba. Most of the models predicted this with restrengthening in the straits before Florida. The only question is will the restrengthening happen or not.

[dhweather]

Cloud tops are really warming now. Cuba already effecting her?

Likely a combination of three things:

1) Eyewall replacement cycle

2) Relatively shallow waters around the Bahamas

3) Cuban terrain

[hurricaneCW]

Her wind field is probably expanding as energy is spreading out further.

[RL3AO]

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Cloud tops are really warming now. Cuba already effecting her?

Clouds warm this time of day (unless it's intensifying). Peak solar radiation on the cloud tops.

[tolakram]

visible loop

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=22&lon=-75&width=1000&height=800&zoom=2&type=Animation&numframes=15&quality=92

[theavocado]

It looks like Irma is hell bent on entering the gulf. If storm intensifies, can it continue a more westerly track for a longer period of time?

Not really due to intensification. As it intensifies you are correct that the level of non-divergence (the millibar level that predominant steering happens at) will change and we would expect slightly different tracks while under the sub-tropical ridge. However, the forecasted turn to the north is based primarily on the timing of a mid-latitude system that will affect the ridge and the steering influence.

There are times that there is ambiguity whether a storm will recurve at all, and continue on a westerly track. We would see indications of this in the consensus members and in the members of an ensemble. In this forecast event, there have been no indications of this ambiguity.

*edited to clarify primary steering influence on turn is mid-latitude timing and not intensification*

[GCANE]

Man! I don't want to see this thing getting in the GOM

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Getting concerned about how much time Irma might spend in the Gulf off the coast of West Florida, especially if the HWRF verifies.

[cjrciadt]

Getting concerned about how much time Irma might spend in the Gulf off the coast of West Florida, especially if the HWRF verifies.

Me too. Those extra few hours can make a difference in a bad way(intensity).

[Scorpion]

In my personal opinion I am starting to think that Irma will be a moderate wind event in SE.Fla(45-75mph). Seems to me the models are locked onto a landfall in the Keys and then Everglades City.

I agree. That's a pretty huge shift, from major hurricane winds yesterday to weak TS winds today. I had a feeling it wasn't going to be that bad here.

[leanne_uk]

I've got friends worried about their loved ones on holiday in Orlando who have not been given a flight out. They have very young children and are in a pure state if panic at what is to come.
I have a childhood friend who has just had their flight brought forward by 3 hours so they can get into Orlando before the airport closes.... she is currently sat in a hotel room in the UK not knowing whether to get on a flight and arrive less than a day before Irma hits or cancel her holiday and not risk it.
Can anyone give me any advice to pass onto the guys out there/flying out please.

Any help or advice at all will be so greatly appreciated.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Getting concerned about how much time Irma might spend in the Gulf off the coast of West Florida, especially if the HWRF verifies.

Me too. Those extra few hours can make a difference in a bad way(intensity).

Right now if the NHC track verifies I'll be close to the western eyewall, and any further shift west could put me right in the eye. I'm getting pretty uncomfortable, to be honest. I'm stocked up and ready. Neighbors are boarding up.

[Patricia]

Friends in Tampa don't think Irma is going to be that big of a deal for them. They aren't worried and said they've done this before.

[fci]

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Cloud tops are really warming now. Cuba already effecting her?

Likely a combination of three things:

1) Eyewall replacement cycle

2) Relatively shallow waters around the Bahamas

3) Cuban terrain

Maybe it's "Wobble watching at its finest" but doesn't she look to he heading due West in the loop shown here?

[Langinbang187]

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Cloud tops are really warming now. Cuba already effecting her?

Mid day, end of an ERC, plus some inflow issues with Cuba. Most of the models predicted this with restrengthening in the straits before Florida. The only question is will the restrengthening happen or not.

Interested to see what Recon finds.

[tolakram]

[i mg]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2c13d23fecf02f5de777f2c8e55881b75625e7f0b7f60e8281f4e2ccf86ddaf6.gif[/img]

Cloud tops are really warming now. Cuba already effecting her?

Mid day, end of an ERC, plus some inflow issues with Cuba. Most of the models predicted this with restrengthening in the straits before Florida. The only question is will the restrengthening happen or not.

Interested to see what Recon finds.

They are in the storm now.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[norva]

It seems unlikely she'll restrengthen.

She's done nothing but degrade for over a day and she'll be brushing cuba for some time now.

That "ERC is almost done" has been going on for 24 hours.

Still a terrible storm with awful consequences for Cuba and Florida (not to mention everywhere its already been), but it appears it won't be the armageddon everyone was afraid of.

Please note: I'm a complete idiot about weather systems and you should refer to official NHC products when making decisions.

Wasn't a weakening here forecasted? I think it is too early to say she won't restrengthen.

[Bocadude85]

In my personal opinion I am starting to think that Irma will be a moderate wind event in SE.Fla(45-75mph). Seems to me the models are locked onto a landfall in the Keys and then Everglades City.

I agree. That's a pretty huge shift, from major hurricane winds yesterday to weak TS winds today. I had a feeling it wasn't going to be that bad here.

Here is the current Hurricane Local Statement from the NWS Miami to back up my personal opinion.

Irma Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 38
National Weather Service Miami FL AL112017
1140 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

FLZ068-082345-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Metro Palm Beach-
1140 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Boca West
- Palm Springs
- Florida Gardens
- Palm Beach Gardens

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 75 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Sunday morning
until Monday morning
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=FLZ068&warncounty=FLC099&firewxzone=FLZ068&local_place1=2%20Miles%20NE%20West%20Palm%20Beach%20FL&product1=Hurricane+Local+Statement&lat=26.7477&lon=-80.1262#.WbLPYdEpDxw