ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve H.]

IR LOOP Cloud tops cooling almost as fast as they warmed.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband14&lat=23&lon=-76width=1400&height=800&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=30&quality=90&palette=ir2.pal

And they can warm just as fast as they cooled again. In fact, I expect it.

[MrStormX]

While I don't want to see a Hurricane hit Cuba, if this hits Cuba, it can mean the difference between a Cat 1 hitting Florida as opposed to a Cat 3 or 4 hitting Florida

It is certainly not a good situation for life and property either way.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar presentation is significantly better than on visible.

Yeah, there is still just intermittent convection that develops with the very weak inner eye. The outer is slowly contracting amd stremgthening. Only a matter of time before it clears out. Its close

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/906203220812455936

[ConvergenceZone]

While I don't want to see a Hurricane hit Cuba, if this hits Cuba, it can mean the difference between a Cat 1 hitting Florida as opposed to a Cat 3 or 4 hitting Florida

Or 5, still in play.

I highly doubt Cat 5, but that's just my personal opinion, not an official forecast, unless the entire storm avoids all of Cuba, which I doubt is going to happen

[Kenderkin17]

The water vapor imagery loop from NOAA is very impressive of the 3 storms. It's very beautiful to observe, if slightly terrifying. I can't help but notice on the far right there seems to be another strong storm forming maybe a new tropical wave or invest? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[Hypercane_Kyle]

While I don't want to see a Hurricane hit Cuba, if this hits Cuba, it can mean the difference between a Cat 1 hitting Florida as opposed to a Cat 3 or 4 hitting Florida

I'd be highly surprised if Irma went down to a Cat 1 due to interaction with Cuba. I remember Ike came in at a similar angle, and weakened to a Cat 1, but only because it was over Cuba for days.

[tolakram]

IR LOOP Cloud tops cooling almost as fast as they warmed.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband14&lat=23&lon=-76width=1400&height=800&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=30&quality=90&palette=ir2.pal

And they can warm just as fast as they cooled again. In fact, I expect it.

That's great, but for the life of me I don't understand what possessed you to reply.

[AutoPenalti]

While I don't want to see a Hurricane hit Cuba, if this hits Cuba, it can mean the difference between a Cat 1 hitting Florida as opposed to a Cat 3 or 4 hitting Florida

Or 5, still in play.

I highly doubt Cat 5, but that's just my personal opinion, not an official forecast, unless the entire storm avoids all of Cuba, which I doubt is going to happen

The core is not forecast to affect landmass, with the CAPE4000 ahead of it along with the warmer waters, this is just more fuel to the fire.

[NDG]

eye is a little ragged

This is 6 hours old!!!!!!!!

[talkon]

Latest recon has 137 kt unflagged.

[FLpanhandle91]

137 knots at the surface. Upgrade to cat 5 again?

[ronyan]

Yeah the HDOB has 137 kt unflagged although lower flight level winds. I don't see much model support for this spending any length of time over Cuba...certainly not enough to weaken it to a Cat 1. In it's current location it is drawing inflow off some mountains in Cuba but that won't be the case later on.

Code: Select all

162800 2211N 07524W 6958 02702 9538 +100 +020 139117 125 137 029 00

[tolakram]

Just for comparison sake, since it was in the same general area, here is Matthew from last year (cat 3).



and Irma now.

[jaxfladude]

Well my family is about to leave from Jacksonville, Florida to go inland hope Irma doesn't follow....

[Snowman67]

If the eye stays far enough off of the east coast of Cuba, what is there to impede its intensification on its way to Florida?

[SouthDadeFish]

Folks, eyewall replacement cycles can take a couple of days sometimes. Each one is unique. As a community, we still have a lot to learn about them. Don't be fooled by a somewhat ragged appearance on IR imagery. Underneath all that cirrus is a wide range of hurricane-force winds, some which has gusts over 150 mph. Irma is a very powerful, very large, and extremely dangerous hurricane.

[gatorcane]

Curious what Irma does as it gets closer to Cuba. I wonder if we will seem some wobbles as hurricanes can have more erratic movement close to landmasses

[BYG Jacob]

Just for comparison sake, since it was in the same general area, here is Matthew from last year (cat 3).



and Irma now.

Her eyewall's height

[ronyan]

Back up to 155 mph with the intermediate advisory via TWC.