CPAC: FERNANDA - Post-Tropical

[Ntxw]

Shear still blowing and the center is exposed to the east. You can see why the models were not really developing Fernanda yesterday as It is a small system and usually small systems struggle with shear. However, it has maintained itself quite well and because it's a small system, if shear relaxes just a bit it can rapidly intensify. Interesting siutation.

http://i.imgur.com/iZJpNMn.gif

I think that her envelope is small and feels the effect of what shear there is, is true. Generally the guidance really begins to strengthen her going into the weekend and early next week with a modest steady state until then

[Kingarabian]

85% of the 51 EPS members have Fernanda with more than 50% showing a hurricane. Those are very strong numbers in favor of Fernanda.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
300 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Fernanda has changed little in organization since the last
advisory, as the center continues to be near the northeastern edge
of the central convection and outer bands persist in the
southwestern semicircle. Recent scatterometer data indicated
maximum winds near 35 kt, and that remains the initial intensity
based on the scatterometer and various satellite intensity
estimates. The scatterometer data also showed the Fernanda is
currently a small cyclone, with tropical-storm-force winds
extending no more than 20 n mi from the center.

The initial motion is now 265/8. Deep-layer ridging north of the
cyclone is steering it a little south of due west, and the ridge is
expected to strengthen and build westward during the next several
days. Thus, a westward or south of westward motion is likely for
the first 72 h. After that, Fernanda should approach a weakness in
the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough over the central
Pacific, and in response it is expected to turn west-northwestward
by 120 h. The new forecast track is again similar to, but a little
south of the previous track. It lies a little north of the
consensus models through 72 h and south of them at 96-120 h.

The cyclone is still feeling the effects of 10-15 kt of vertical
wind shear at this time. The large-scale models continue to
forecast the shear to subside over the next 24 h or so and then
remain light through the remainder of the forecast period. That,
combined with 28-29C sea surface temperatures along the first 96 h
of the forecast track, should allow the system to intensify. After
96 h, the expected more northward motion would bring Fernanda over
decreasing seas surface temperatures, which would likely stop
intensification. The new forecast is again similar to the previous
forecast and is in best agreement with the intensity consensus.
There remains a possibility that rapid intensification could occur
after the shear subsides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 11.8N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 11.8N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 11.7N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 11.6N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 11.5N 119.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 11.5N 124.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 12.0N 128.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 13.0N 133.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/885210677018800131

[Kingarabian]

GFS Parallel showing the sub tropical jet retreating north, trending towards potentially a more favorable shear environment past 135W.

[Kingarabian]

Overhead shear seems to be decreasing. Outflow re-establishing itself to the N and NE of the system. Outflow to the south and south east of the system looks really good. If this continues and the CDO can expand and have the LLC tuck in properly, this thing will bomb overnight.

[Yellow Evan]

Fernanda will likely be the biggest ACE producer and strongest storm of the season. The ECMWF and GFS and GFS-P have gradually trended more bullish and the SHIPS/LGEM have a Cat 2. HWRF/HWFR-P/HMON are all quite aggressive, calling for at least 90 knots in the 12z cycle. Waters are over 28C, and shear should remain low until at least 140W, although some increase in shear is possible after that time, which is about six days away anyway.

[Kingarabian]

When was the last time we had a Cat.5 this far west?

[Ntxw]

When was the last time we had a Cat.5 this far west?

Ioke 2006 I believe. Though at cat 5 was much further west

[1900hurricane]

When was the last time we had a Cat.5 this far west?

It depends on your bounds. Genevieve '14 was an EPac storm that eventually became a category 5, but not until just after crossing the International Date Line. Celia '10 became a category 5 a little west of where Fernanda is now, but Fernanda probably won't be ramping up until after passing that point. Ioke '06 was the last category 5 that was significantly west within the basin, but originated as a CPac storm. Guillermo '97 is a similar case to Celia '10. I suspect John '94 may be the one you're looking for, since it formed rather far east in the basin but didn't become a category 5 until after reaching the CPac.

[Kingarabian]

When was the last time we had a Cat.5 this far west?

It depends on your bounds. Genevieve '14 was an EPac storm that eventually became a category 5, but not until just after crossing the International Date Line. Celia '10 became a category 5 a little west of where Fernanda is now, but Fernanda probably won't be ramping up until after passing that point. Ioke '06 was the last category 5 that was significantly west within the basin, but originated as a CPac storm. Guillermo '97 is a similar case to Celia '10. I suspect John '94 may be the one you're looking for, since it formed rather far east in the basin but didn't become a category 5 until after reaching the CPac.

Yeah the boundaries just throw a wrench in this...

I should've been clearer. When was the last time we had a Cat.5 enter the CPac? Could Fernanda be the first Cat.5 EPac-->CPac basin crosser?

[Yellow Evan]

When was the last time we had a Cat.5 this far west?

It depends on your bounds. Genevieve '14 was an EPac storm that eventually became a category 5, but not until just after crossing the International Date Line. Celia '10 became a category 5 a little west of where Fernanda is now, but Fernanda probably won't be ramping up until after passing that point. Ioke '06 was the last category 5 that was significantly west within the basin, but originated as a CPac storm. Guillermo '97 is a similar case to Celia '10. I suspect John '94 may be the one you're looking for, since it formed rather far east in the basin but didn't become a category 5 until after reaching the CPac.

Yeah the boundaries just throw a wrench in this...

I should've been clearer. When was the last time we had a Cat.5 enter the CPac? Could Fernanda be the first Cat.5 EPac-->CPac basin crosser?

Never, but I don't trust intensity estimates prior to 1988 and I suspect Rick 85 may have been a Cat 5 when it passed 140W

[Kingarabian]

It depends on your bounds. Genevieve '14 was an EPac storm that eventually became a category 5, but not until just after crossing the International Date Line. Celia '10 became a category 5 a little west of where Fernanda is now, but Fernanda probably won't be ramping up until after passing that point. Ioke '06 was the last category 5 that was significantly west within the basin, but originated as a CPac storm. Guillermo '97 is a similar case to Celia '10. I suspect John '94 may be the one you're looking for, since it formed rather far east in the basin but didn't become a category 5 until after reaching the CPac.

Yeah the boundaries just throw a wrench in this...

I should've been clearer. When was the last time we had a Cat.5 enter the CPac? Could Fernanda be the first Cat.5 EPac-->CPac basin crosser?

Never, but I don't trust intensity estimates prior to 1988 and I suspect Rick 85 may have been a Cat 5 when it passed 140W

Interesting. So history is not on its side.

[wxmann_91]

When was the last time we had a Cat.5 this far west?

It depends on your bounds. Genevieve '14 was an EPac storm that eventually became a category 5, but not until just after crossing the International Date Line. Celia '10 became a category 5 a little west of where Fernanda is now, but Fernanda probably won't be ramping up until after passing that point. Ioke '06 was the last category 5 that was significantly west within the basin, but originated as a CPac storm. Guillermo '97 is a similar case to Celia '10. I suspect John '94 may be the one you're looking for, since it formed rather far east in the basin but didn't become a category 5 until after reaching the CPac.

Yeah the boundaries just throw a wrench in this...

I should've been clearer. When was the last time we had a Cat.5 enter the CPac? Could Fernanda be the first Cat.5 EPac-->CPac basin crosser?

Hurricane Gilma in 1994 was probably the closest. A strengthening Cat 4 when it crossed into the CPAC and became a Cat 5 12 hr later.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_p ... /track.dat

[Ntxw]

[cycloneye]

HWRF / HWRF-Para and HMON - Para have a cat 3 almost 4.

[Kingarabian]

HWRF / HWRF-Para and HMON - Para have a cat 3 almost 4.

I think they have Cat.4's actually. Their wind to pressure relationship is off.

[Kingarabian]

13/0000 UTC 11.9N 112.6W T2.5/2.5 FERNANDA -- East Pacific

TXPZ29 KNES 130016
TCSENP

A. 06E (FERNANDA)

B. 13/0000Z

C. 11.9N

D. 112.6W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON 1 DG WELL DEFINED CDO IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. PT=2.5. MET=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

12/2253Z 11.9N 112.1W SSMIS


...SCHWARTZ

[Alyono]

HWRF / HWRF-Para and HMON - Para have a cat 3 almost 4.

I think they have Cat.4's actually. Their wind to pressure relationship is off.

they're correct due to structure. Major eyewall replacement

[cycloneye]

EP, 06, 2017071300, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1126W, 40, 1004, TS