ATL: TEN - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

We've got Cuba surrounded!!!

[Blown Away]

Wow, future 93L... Scary... Cue the magic open door...

[SouthFLTropics]

Meanwhile 92L just on Central Fl Coast and 93L is like a Cat 3/4... Hint NW turn for 93L at 198 hrs...

The irony...A weakened 92L on the Florida coast looks to be enough to displace the ridge to allow 93L to escape.

[sma10]

And if it's all not ridiculous enough, here comes 91L about to pop into the bay of campeche to terrorize mexico/texas

[Kingarabian]

[LarryWx]

Here's a summary of the various runs of 3 models for today:

The 0Z GFS had it recurve as just a wave near 70W 8/21-2. The 6Z GFS had this as a very weak low skirt the east coast of FL 8/23-4 as it recurves. The 12Z GFS had this recurve just ~150 miles east of FL as a very weak low on 8/24.

The 18Z GFS has this move WNW to near Vero Beach, FL, as a recurving weak low late 8/23/early 8/24.

So, the last 3 runs of the GFS have this recurving near the FL east coast 8/23-4 fwiw.

The 0Z CMC has this recurve as a H near 70W 8/23-4 with Bermuda getting large affects in its right half. The 12Z CMC has this hit SE FL as a strong TS or H as it recurves late 8/23-early 8/24.

The 0Z/12Z Euro runs has this as a wave that crosses S FL 8/22.

Conclusion: It is still very early as this is still not yet officially a TC and it is at least a week away from the CONUS. Regardless, the model consensus today is suggesting that this may very well end up as the biggest threat to the CONUS of 91L, 92L, and the wave now over W Africa even though it is shown to only be weak as of now on the GFS/Euro. The most likely threat timing for FL seems to be 8/22-4 (especially 8/23-4) should it ever be a threat. This would be only within a couple of days after the solar eclipse.

[RL3AO]

Really don't know were all these named storms are going to come from NOAA.

The named storms won't be a problem. We could be at 10 by next week. The hurricanes and ACE on the other hand...

[gatorcane]

Here's a summary of the various runs of 3 models for today:

The 0Z GFS had it recurve as just a wave near 70W 8/21-2. The 6Z GFS had this as a very weak low skirt the east coast of FL 8/23-4 as it recurves. The 12Z GFS had this recurve just ~150 miles east of FL as a very weak low on 8/24.

The 18Z GFS has this move WNW to near Vero Beach, FL, as a recurving weak low late 8/23/early 8/24.

So, the last 3 runs of the GFS have this recurving near the FL east coast 8/23-4 fwiw.

The 0Z CMC has this recurve as a H near 70W 8/23-4 with Bermuda getting large affects in its right half. The 12Z CMC has this hit SE FL as a strong TS or H as it recurves late 8/23-early 8/24.

The 0Z/12Z Euro runs has this as a wave that crosses S FL 8/22.

Conclusion: It is still very early as this is still not yet officially a TC and it is at least a week away from the CONUS. Regardless, the model consensus today is suggesting that this may very well end up as the biggest threat to the CONUS of 91L, 92L, and the wave now over W Africa even though it is shown to only be weak as of now on the GFS/Euro. The most likely threat timing for FL seems to be 8/22-4 (especially 8/23-4) should it ever be a threat. This would be only within a couple of days after the solar eclipse.

That is a great summary. This invest is the most concerning of the three for potential US impacts. With the models sending it north of the islands and in the vicinity of the Bahamas, eyebrows are raised. Couple that with how poor models have been with forecasting genesis means the invest bears close watching.

[AutoPenalti]

We've got Cuba surrounded!!!

The Cuba triangle.

[gatorcane]

00Z guidance showing west bend north of islands:

[northjaxpro]

Great summary Larry! What a ride we are about to embark upon for the next 7-10 days. We have all these tropical entities to watch extremely close going forward. and of course, the mega event Monday with the solar eclipse.

Well, we have a smorgasbord of things to keep us very busy over the next 10 days folks!!!

[floridasun78]

that why i wait close runs to islands see what going on look how crazy models been we seen hurr hit my area now show as strong ts we can't get into models not get close islandes now nhc say we see shear and dry air affect area by weekend

[Alyono]

0Z GFS MUCH weaker so far

[Alyono]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 20.0N 61.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2017 108 20.3N 62.3W 1009 33
0000UTC 21.08.2017 120 21.4N 65.2W 1007 38
1200UTC 21.08.2017 132 22.5N 67.9W 1004 41
0000UTC 22.08.2017 144 23.2N 70.2W 1000 44

UKMET saying trouble on the horizon

[AdamFirst]

Zero development from the 00z GFS run - essentially a wave moving into the general direction of the Bahamas and South Florida.

[AxaltaRacing24]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 20.0N 61.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2017 108 20.3N 62.3W 1009 33
0000UTC 21.08.2017 120 21.4N 65.2W 1007 38
1200UTC 21.08.2017 132 22.5N 67.9W 1004 41
0000UTC 22.08.2017 144 23.2N 70.2W 1000 44

UKMET saying trouble on the horizon

That's uh oh for FL on that run.

[Hurricaneman]

Zero development from the 00z GFS run - essentially a wave moving into the general direction of the Bahamas and South Florida.

I have a feeling the models will bring this back in future runs

[AdamFirst]

Zero development from the 00z GFS run - essentially a wave moving into the general direction of the Bahamas and South Florida.

I have a feeling the models will bring this back in future runs

Could be a possibility. What would hinder development north of the islands? Gert spun up very quickly all things considered.

[hd44]

Zero development from the 00z GFS run - essentially a wave moving into the general direction of the Bahamas and South Florida.

Conditions on the models appear more favorable for 91l and 92l further w. Not seeing what the NHC is seeing.

[caneseddy]

Zero development from the 00z GFS run - essentially a wave moving into the general direction of the Bahamas and South Florida.

I have a feeling the models will bring this back in future runs

Could be a possibility. What would hinder development north of the islands? Gert spun up very quickly all things considered.

There is a TUTT draped north of the islands which all the models say 92L will interact with this weekend and hinder development...if it survives that then it could intensify heading towards the Bahamas which the UKMET is depicting...Canadian also had the same idea earlier this afternoon