ATL: IRMA - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Slightly SE of last run but not by much yet.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
18z guidance seems to bend NW away from NE Caribbean at day 5 and then OTS... Euro seems to be only model in southerly track through NE Caribbean and into Bahamas... Irma is headline news in SFL, seems we are one Euro run OTS away to stop all this hype, I hope...
Last edited by Blown Away on Wed Aug 30, 2017 4:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
tolakram wrote:
Ridge is about the same on this run, the difference being that the WSW dip happens a little later in the forecast.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
18z GFS trend:
Last edited by Kingarabian on Wed Aug 30, 2017 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Yeah, weaker ULL pulling away to the WNW pretty quickly this run. I do believe there is an OTS path through as the ridging near the Bahamas is weaker.
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FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Yeah, weaker ULL pulling away to the WNW pretty quickly this run. I do believe there is an OTS path though as the ridging near the Bahamas is weaker.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
tolakram wrote:
Trough is nowhere to be found.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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SouthDadeFish
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
The 18Z GFS is demonstrating the power of light vertical wind shear. Just going nuts with Irma so far. 934 mb in 126 hours. Very impressive intensification.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Strengthening rapidly this run, probably quite believable given the way it is currently presentating itself, almost down to Harvey's pressure by 96hrs.
Upper low is weaker on the 18z out to 108hrs, still think it will follow a broadly similar track to the 12z but may be a closer call this time.
PS, its not just the ECM model showing a possible threat, the UKMO is identical, a high percentage of the ECM ensembles have it making that track as well, and I ALWAYS back the ECM ensembles above any models output, when you have such a large amount of them showing the same general solution, you must listen.
Upper low is weaker on the 18z out to 108hrs, still think it will follow a broadly similar track to the 12z but may be a closer call this time.
PS, its not just the ECM model showing a possible threat, the UKMO is identical, a high percentage of the ECM ensembles have it making that track as well, and I ALWAYS back the ECM ensembles above any models output, when you have such a large amount of them showing the same general solution, you must listen.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Leveling out at 132 Hours, looking to head West to WNW
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Though a hair south this run, will likely end essentially the same: still has NW/SE tilted ridge
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Bermuda high looks weaker compared to the past run and looks like it'll be a recurve.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
A very important note so far is that this run of the GFS isn't developing the TD/TS in the BOC.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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