ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronyan]

Storm2K site map shows at the moment Irma as Cat 5. So, is Irma back at Cat 5 strength officially?

That's likely some conversion error within the code behind the graphic. 135kt/155mph is Cat 4.

Yeah the straight conversion comes to about 155.25 so it may be just taking anything above 155 as cat 5. I do work with PHP so someone can send a PM if interested in getting that corrected.

[znel52]

So Irma is back to Cat. 5, and Jose is very very close to Cat 5 with many Cat 5 readings flagged from the most recent Recon. We may actually have two Cat 5 Hurricanes within the next few hours. It's a terrifying, amazing, and humbling all at the same time.

Irma stil a Cat 4 at 155. Has to be >157 for Cat 5. Minute difference but just the way the classification works.

Yes, I'd much rather be hit by an object doing 155mph than 157mph.

Practically the entire Florida peninsula is at risk here for hurricane force winds. There is a great deal of potential for widespread damage setting up here, and I hate it for everyone impacted. This will likely be a life changing event for many people.

Yeah that 2mph will get ya

[meriland29]

Is this going from 150 to 155 the result of expected minor fluctuations or intensification due to EW reorganization? Curious..

[BYG Jacob]

Seems there is a problem with the recon data stream. No new updates from any of the five active planes for more than 15 minutes now.

Do you have a link to the livestream?

[Extratropical94]

How many different flights are there going on in Irma? Jose? Katia?

Previously today, 4 low-level and 1 upper-level. Right now there's just an upper-level NOAA mission on Irma that has just started.

The next departures are:
3pm EDT - NOAA low-level into IRMA
4:30pm EDT - USAF low-level into IRMA
4:45pm EDT - USAF low-level into JOSE
5pm EDT - USAF low-level into KATIA

[supercane4867]

Irma should sweep through the Cuban coast tonight as satellite and recon passes both indicate a more westerly motion. However we can't overestimate the terrain effects since this part of Cuba is relatively flat and large storms tend to weaken slowly over land. That's why models rapidly intensifies Irma once she's off the coast again. I really don't expect much weakening tonight, let alone down to CAT2.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906214285403189252

[NC George]

Why haven't they opened up the other lanes to outbound traffic? They could keep 1 or 2 lanes of traffic open for any vehicles (mostly emergency/relief/supply vehicles) going the other direction.

Well, there's only 2 lanes going in each direction, so if they keep 2 lanes open going the other way, they just don't have contra-flow. I don't think having vehicles going opposite directions on the same side of the highway is a good idea.

[Extratropical94]

Seems there is a problem with the recon data stream. No new updates from any of the five active planes for more than 15 minutes now.

Do you have a link to the livestream?

Sorry, that was probably misleading, it's not a livestream. I meant the page where the recon data is shown as soon as it arrives from the planes.

http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/ur/urnt15.knhc..txt for USAF missions

http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/ur/urnt15.kwbc..txt for NOAA missions.

[jdjaguar]

I'm sure many of you have used this resource before, but for those who are inland like myself, and who are still anxiously following forecast wind speeds, this tabular forecast is very helpful:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=hi&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=rain&w8=thunder&w10u=0&w12u=1&w13u=1&AheadHour=0&FcstType=digital&textField1=28.3577&textField2=-82.6995&site=all&unit=0&dd=&bw=&AheadDay.x=60&AheadDay.y=6&AheadDay=48

Very useful. Thnx.

How do you plug in your location? Search box?

I did find it a bit cumbersome to navigate to this page, so I bookmarked it... but here's the path I took to get there:

forecast.weather.gov
enter zip code in top left box
select your location
scroll to the bottom of the page and find the heading "Additional Forecasts and Information"
select "tabular forecast"

Thanks!

[Raebie]

Why haven't they opened up the other lanes to outbound traffic? They could keep 1 or 2 lanes of traffic open for any vehicles (mostly emergency/relief/supply vehicles) going the other direction.

Well, there's only 2 lanes going in each direction, so if they keep 2 lanes open going the other way, they just don't have contra-flow. I don't think having vehicles going opposite directions on the same side of the highway is a good idea.

Especially since a good number of them are oil tankers. What could possibly go wrong?

[Meteorcane]

Storm2K site map shows at the moment Irma as Cat 5. So, is Irma back at Cat 5 strength officially?

That's likely some conversion error within the code behind the graphic. 135kt/155mph is Cat 4.

Yeah the straight conversion comes to about 155.25 so it may be just taking anything above 155 as cat 5. I do work with PHP so someone can send a PM if interested in getting that corrected.

I have also noticed the error with 130 mph being displayed as a Cat.4 on the above chart, that could be due to the fact they fairly recently changed the 3/4 threshold.

[bob rulz]

Why haven't they opened up the other lanes to outbound traffic? They could keep 1 or 2 lanes of traffic open for any vehicles (mostly emergency/relief/supply vehicles) going the other direction.

Well, there's only 2 lanes going in each direction, so if they keep 2 lanes open going the other way, they just don't have contra-flow. I don't think having vehicles going opposite directions on the same side of the highway is a good idea.

Hmm I was looking mainly later in the video when the traffic is going through the toll booths. Does it condense down to 2 lanes after that? If so, then forget what I said. And in hindsight, it is probably impractical to have only 1 lane going a certain direction. There aren't enough barriers in the world to divide entire freeway lanes of traffic up like that. Just a thought. I remember didn't they have contraflow travel on I-10 out of New Orleans before Katrina? Just wondering if it's practical to do so in Florida.

[Meteorcane]

That's likely some conversion error within the code behind the graphic. 135kt/155mph is Cat 4.

Yeah the straight conversion comes to about 155.25 so it may be just taking anything above 155 as cat 5. I do work with PHP so someone can send a PM if interested in getting that corrected.

I have also noticed the error with 130 mph being displayed as a Cat.3 on the above chart, that could be due to the fact they fairly recently changed the 3/4 threshold.

[BYG Jacob]

Seems there is a problem with the recon data stream. No new updates from any of the five active planes for more than 15 minutes now.

Do you have a link to the livestream?

Sorry, that was probably misleading, it's not a livestream. I meant the page where the recon data is shown as soon as it arrives from the planes.

http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/ur/urnt15.knhc..txt for USAF missions

http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/ur/urnt15.kwbc..txt for NOAA missions.

Thanks!

[JBCycloneStan]

Is everyone completely convinced of a Cuba landfall? People have pointed out the westerly direction as of late, but I've noticed a more WNW movement in the last few frames.

Also - people have been mentioning dry air from the mountains of hispanola and Cuba interfering with Irma's re-strengthening efforts. I haven't noticed any effect of dry air on the core though, so how convincing is this explanation really?

[norva]

Is everyone completely convinced of a Cuba landfall? People have pointed out the westerly direction as of late, but I've noticed a more WNW movement in the last few frames.

Also - people have been mentioning dry air from the mountains of hispanola and Cuba interfering with Irma's re-strengthening efforts. I haven't noticed any effect of dry air on the core though, so how convincing is this explanation really?

I think it is expected to stay offshore, perhaps scrape the eye wall.

[bordot]

Why haven't they opened up the other lanes to outbound traffic? They could keep 1 or 2 lanes of traffic open for any vehicles (mostly emergency/relief/supply vehicles) going the other direction.

Well, there's only 2 lanes going in each direction, so if they keep 2 lanes open going the other way, they just don't have contra-flow. I don't think having vehicles going opposite directions on the same side of the highway is a good idea.

I was stuck in gridlock during Hurricane Rita in Texas back in 2005 for over 30 hours before their contraflow plan was activated. If Florida's contraflow plan is anything similar to Texas', people going Southbound would only be allowed to drive on the feeder roads and not on the actual interstate. In my opinion, the benefits greatly outweigh the downsides - in those 30 hours I was in traffic, I moved maybe 15 miles in hot, humid Texas summer. It was one of the most miserable experiences in my life.

[Janie2006]

Granted that it's the Florida peninsula and you only have x amount of space to work with, but don't folks take advantage of the highways, byways, and back roads? Knowing those has always been very, very handy in my experience. It pays to know the road system like the back of your hand.

[txwatcher91]

Is everyone completely convinced of a Cuba landfall? People have pointed out the westerly direction as of late, but I've noticed a more WNW movement in the last few frames.

Also - people have been mentioning dry air from the mountains of hispanola and Cuba interfering with Irma's re-strengthening efforts. I haven't noticed any effect of dry air on the core though, so how convincing is this explanation really?

People often throw around the term "dry air" as the cause anytime a storm weakens or doesn't look as good as it once did when oftentimes there are other processes that cause the weakening or ragged appearance. I think Irma is just recovering from the EWRC and as soon as the inner eye fully gives up this will start looking really impressive. Cuba will probably have minimal effects as the eye is so large most of it would still be over water, and in some case, the frictional effects of land can help tighten up an eye after an EWRC.