ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Raebie]

I assume you're located on Sanibel Island?

Yes: I think I'm in it deep...

I just saw you'll be riding it out in Cape Coral. My aunt and uncle have a home in Bonita Springs but they're in Ohio right now. Stay safe my friend. Will be thinking good thoughts for you.

[ApproximateKnowledge]

12z models look to have gone a bit west. My best take at a consensus track, keeping in mind that the slightly more westerly track should cause a little less weakening than the NHC's:

[Sanibel]

I just saw you'll be riding it out in Cape Coral. My aunt and uncle have a home in Bonita Springs but they're in Ohio right now. Stay safe my friend. Will be thinking good thoughts for you.

That one fell through...I'm going to an emergency shelter and it will be not too far from the west eyewall...Crazy but with the surge factor and track the best shelter is actually towards the eye...Simply cannot risk any further shifts west...


Going now to try to get stuck steel hurricane shutter down with neighbor's help...Window is on north side of house (wind side on west side of hurricane)...

[gatorcane]

Looks like due west might be over:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[BYG Jacob]

12z models look to have gone a bit west. My best take at a consensus track, keeping in mind that the slightly more westerly track should cause a little less weakening than the NHC's:

Interesting, what's your reasoning for not intensifying?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Here is a good loop of IRMA, and you can see the due west movement toward the end is stopping. It is more wnw now. She also looks a tad bit stronger on satellite.

http://i.imgur.com/fRuydec.mp4

[wicked_wx_watcher]

Why haven't they opened up the other lanes to outbound traffic? They could keep 1 or 2 lanes of traffic open for any vehicles (mostly emergency/relief/supply vehicles) going the other direction.

Well, there's only 2 lanes going in each direction, so if they keep 2 lanes open going the other way, they just don't have contra-flow. I don't think having vehicles going opposite directions on the same side of the highway is a good idea.

I was stuck in gridlock during Hurricane Rita in Texas back in 2005 for over 30 hours before their contraflow plan was activated. If Florida's contraflow plan is anything similar to Texas', people going Southbound would only be allowed to drive on the feeder roads and not on the actual interstate. In my opinion, the benefits greatly outweigh the downsides - in those 30 hours I was in traffic, I moved maybe 15 miles in hot, humid Texas summer. It was one of the most miserable experiences in my life.

Rita set the standard for needing contraflow. We were in Jefferson County. No interstates... Only 2 and 4 lane state roads. We traveled 75 miles in 7 1/2 hours and it wasn't far enough to get away from Rita.

If they need to move people on the western side of Florida because of new projected landfall, I pray they activate the contraflow plan immediately. They won't be able to evacuate everyone who now wants to leave if they don't. They will be stranded.

[ApproximateKnowledge]

12z models look to have gone a bit west. My best take at a consensus track, keeping in mind that the slightly more westerly track should cause a little less weakening than the NHC's:

Interesting, what's your reasoning for not intensifying?

She's struggling to get this eyewall replacement done + land interaction with Cuba. NHC doesn't show any strengthening either.

[Kat5]

Here is a good loop of IRMA, and you can see the due west movement toward the end is stopping. It is more wnw now. She also looks a tad bit stronger on satellite.

http://i.imgur.com/fRuydec.mp4

Eye tightening maybe an illusion.

[TJRE]

Cod Met Loops
http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/ ... an-ir-0-24

hit loop
many enhancement options from the menu bar on top

[Bocadude85]

I agree. That's a pretty huge shift, from major hurricane winds yesterday to weak TS winds today. I had a feeling it wasn't going to be that bad here.

Here is the current Hurricane Local Statement from the NWS Miami to back up my personal opinion.

Irma Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 38
National Weather Service Miami FL AL112017
1140 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

FLZ068-082345-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Metro Palm Beach-
1140 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Boca West
- Palm Springs
- Florida Gardens
- Palm Beach Gardens

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 75 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Sunday morning
until Monday morning
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=FLZ068&warncounty=FLC099&firewxzone=FLZ068&local_place1=2%20Miles%20NE%20West%20Palm%20Beach%20FL&product1=Hurricane+Local+Statement&lat=26.7477&lon=-80.1262#.WbLPYdEpDxw

At the risk of getting my hand slapped by The Hard Working Mods here at S2K, I have to ask the question:
What is the purpose of your post?
To validate YOUR prediction?
Is there a satisfaction your gleam from your guess???
We are all under Hurricane Warning and people are preparing for a possibly horrible event.
So why go boast that your GUESS might be correct?
Is now the time to play "Look how smart I am"?
I do not see Pro Met next to your name.
So, are you smarter than they are?
Because they are all saying that this could be bad. Or maybe not.
If they don't know, then why are you boasting that your guess might be correct.

I'm off my soap box and Mods, PLEASE DO NOT SUSPEND ME!!!!!!!

That forecast came DIRECTLY from the NWS Miami, last time I checked they were down the hall from the NHC. So I would assume that the wind forecast that they are forecasting may have some validity. The forecast can certainly change and as far as I can see everyone is prepared for a hurricane hit.

[NC George]

I was stuck in gridlock during Hurricane Rita in Texas back in 2005 for over 30 hours before their contraflow plan was activated. If Florida's contraflow plan is anything similar to Texas', people going Southbound would only be allowed to drive on the feeder roads and not on the actual interstate. In my opinion, the benefits greatly outweigh the downsides - in those 30 hours I was in traffic, I moved maybe 15 miles in hot, humid Texas summer. It was one of the most miserable experiences in my life.

They don't have feeder roads alongside the freeways in Florida like they do in Texas. I was stuck in the post-eclipse traffic on I-95 in SC last month, we moved about 2 miles in 2 hours, luckily after those two mile I found myself at an exit, and took it. No traffic whatsoever once off I-95, but it still took a lot longer to get home because there weren't any direct routes from Florence to Greenville, NC; had to take a bunch of backcountry roads that kept me zigging and zagging - but it beat the hell out of sitting on I-95 not moving at all.

[PTPatrick]

Looks like due west might be over:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Was about to post same thing...she finally bounced north of 22. I said earlier if she can reach 77 and 22.5 she'd probably stay off Cuba. But now 78/23 is the next key point to watch

[bordot]

I was stuck in gridlock during Hurricane Rita in Texas back in 2005 for over 30 hours before their contraflow plan was activated. If Florida's contraflow plan is anything similar to Texas', people going Southbound would only be allowed to drive on the feeder roads and not on the actual interstate. In my opinion, the benefits greatly outweigh the downsides - in those 30 hours I was in traffic, I moved maybe 15 miles in hot, humid Texas summer. It was one of the most miserable experiences in my life.

They don't have feeder roads alongside the freeways in Florida like they do in Texas. I was stuck in the post-eclipse traffic on I-95 in SC last month, we moved about 2 miles in 2 hours, luckily after those two mile I found myself at an exit, and took it. No traffic whatsoever once off I-95, but it still took a lot longer to get home because there weren't any direct routes from Florence to Greenville, NC; had to take a bunch of backcountry roads that kept me zigging and zagging - but it beat the hell out of sitting on I-95 not moving at all.

Thanks for that information, I wasn't aware. Stay safe, everyone!

[JtSmarts]

Does anyone know how evacuations have gone in Key West? I remember they were very close to disaster during Wilma because many didn't evacuate.

[tolakram]

Another comparison, for those who experienced Wilma.

Wilma cat 3


Irma cat 4

[TJRE]

48 frame ir loop

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/ ... erDim=100#

jog nw last few frames

[hurricaneCW]

One more shift west and the west coast of Florida will be in immediate danger.

Also any land interaction with Cuba could be negated by extra time spend over that boiling hot water that in 2005 turned Katrina from a minimal Cat 1 to a 5 in a day or so.

[JBCycloneStan]

Can anyone give any up to date commentary on the EWRC? I noticed many posters saying it has been completed, but most satellite representations show a recalcitrant inner eye remaining. It seems at least from the wind-field analysis from ReCON and from microwave that it has completed, but it's fascinating to me that the inner eye has yet to diminish in most satellite representation. Would love to hear a met's analysis of this.

[ApproximateKnowledge]

Can anyone give any up to date commentary on the EWRC? I noticed many posters saying it has been completed, but most satellite representations show a recalcitrant inner eye remaining. It seems at least from the wind-field analysis from ReCON and from microwave that it has completed, but it's fascinating to me that the inner eye has yet to diminish in most satellite representation. Would love to hear a met's analysis of this.

I think it's completed in the sense that the outer eyewall is established and the inner is being choked off, but it can take a storm quite a while to clear out a new eye (especially one that big, and Irma has had very strange internal structure all along).