ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bohaiboy]

Why haven't they opened up the other lanes to outbound traffic? They could keep 1 or 2 lanes of traffic open for any vehicles (mostly emergency/relief/supply vehicles) going the other direction.

Well, there's only 2 lanes going in each direction, so if they keep 2 lanes open going the other way, they just don't have contra-flow. I don't think having vehicles going opposite directions on the same side of the highway is a good idea.

I was stuck in gridlock during Hurricane Rita in Texas back in 2005 for over 30 hours before their contraflow plan was activated. If Florida's contraflow plan is anything similar to Texas', people going Southbound would only be allowed to drive on the feeder roads and not on the actual interstate. In my opinion, the benefits greatly outweigh the downsides - in those 30 hours I was in traffic, I moved maybe 15 miles in hot, humid Texas summer. It was one of the most miserable experiences in my life.

Us to. Took 8 hrs to travel 30 miles AND that was on back roads. One thing learned from Rita in Houston area was the contraflow lanes. It is getting too late to try to get supplies and fuel down there now. Open those lanes and get the folks out.

[ROCK]

yeah the west movement has stopped to me and I suspect the models were picking up on this jog and shifted west to compensate. Would not be surprised if they swung a tad east now on tonight's runs with Gonzo flying. Personally, until the NWS can pin point an actual track they are going on best guess in winds for Miami. If she does shift east those forecasts will need to be amended to show increased impacts....JMO...

[JBCycloneStan]

Can anyone give any up to date commentary on the EWRC? I noticed many posters saying it has been completed, but most satellite representations show a recalcitrant inner eye remaining. It seems at least from the wind-field analysis from ReCON and from microwave that it has completed, but it's fascinating to me that the inner eye has yet to diminish in most satellite representation. Would love to hear a met's analysis of this.

I think it's completed in the sense that the outer eyewall is established and the inner is being choked off, but it can take a storm quite a while to clear out a new eye (especially one that big, and Irma has had very strange internal structure all along).

Interesting - I do wonder how the timing of inner-eye wall diminishment compares to storms such as Isabel or Igor, which were similarly strong and large.

[MetroMike]

48 frame ir loop

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/ ... erDim=100#

jog nw last few frames

Don't really see that jog, just a wobble I think.

[Kat5]

48 frame ir loop

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/ ... erDim=100#

jog nw last few frames

Don't really see that jog, just a wobble I think.

Don't see neither, all I see the core tightening up

[funster]

Looks like both tightening and wnw movement. Wobble watching commences in earnest now until s fla

[Zarniwoop]

When is the next Euro model run?

[verbs]

Interesting to my novice eye how the ADT has both Irma and Jose with basically identical ratings at the moment, but they're obviously fairly different characteristically.

Both right now:

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.4 6.4

[nativefloridian]

48 frame ir loop

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/ ... erDim=100#

jog nw last few frames

Don't really see that jog, just a wobble I think.

Don't see neither, all I see the core tightening up

Well, if you look at the loop on NHC, or any other site, with lat/long lines, you will see that it was moving west along 22N and in the last frame jogged just north of west and the eye is now above 22N. Is it a wobble or an indication of direction change? Only time will tell.

[TheStormExpert]

I work at a Publix in Jupiter and all I'm hearing is talk that the storm is going over the west coast now and that we dodged a bullet from a good bit of people. Hard to know for sure if they may be correct or not with these models continuously trending little by little west but it also is a little complacent.

[Zarniwoop]

I work at a Publix in Jupiter and all I'm hearing is talk that the storm is going over the west coast now and that we dodged a bullet from a good bit of people. Hard to know for sure if they may be correct or not with these models continuously trending little by little west but it also is a little complacent.

Boy are they in for a surprise (most likely).

[TheStormExpert]

I work at a Publix in Jupiter and all I'm hearing is talk that the storm is going over the west coast now and that we dodged a bullet from a good bit of people. Hard to know for sure if they may be correct or not with these models continuously trending little by little west but it also is a little complacent.

Boy are they in for a surprise.

That's what I'm thinking. Time will tell!

[lando]

Large National guard convoy heading south on 95 around ormond

[bob rulz]

Convection does seem to be strengthening.

[dukeblue219]

I work at a Publix in Jupiter and all I'm hearing is talk that the storm is going over the west coast now and that we dodged a bullet from a good bit of people. Hard to know for sure if they may be correct or not with these models continuously trending little by little west but it also is a little complacent.

Too many maps and forecast products show the track as a line and the center as a dot. It's tragically inaccurate.

Yes, if the storm makes landfall around Naples and moves due North the folks in Miami and Jupiter will have dodged a bullet. They would still have a very bad couple days, though, and for some folks a long time without power. The problem is that no model or forecast can predict exactly where that center will hit, even this close in, or how strong it will be. Neither coast is out of the woods for a direct hit yet. There is merely a range of possibilities that is centered on one coast or the other from day to day.

[joey]

why does stk show a cat 5 symbol its still a cat 4 right at 155 thanks

[verbs]

why does stk show a cat 5 symbol its still a cat 4 right at 155 thanks

It was explained a few pages back in this thread.

[tgenius]

why does stk show a cat 5 symbol its still a cat 4 right at 155 thanks

Can you stop with the eye roll icon please? Every post of your has it and it isn't needed.

[fci]

Here is the current Hurricane Local Statement from the NWS Miami to back up my personal opinion.

Irma Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 38
National Weather Service Miami FL AL112017
1140 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

FLZ068-082345-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Metro Palm Beach-
1140 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Boca West
- Palm Springs
- Florida Gardens
- Palm Beach Gardens

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 75 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Sunday morning
until Monday morning
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=FLZ068&warncounty=FLC099&firewxzone=FLZ068&local_place1=2%20Miles%20NE%20West%20Palm%20Beach%20FL&product1=Hurricane+Local+Statement&lat=26.7477&lon=-80.1262#.WbLPYdEpDxw

At the risk of getting my hand slapped by The Hard Working Mods here at S2K, I have to ask the question:
What is the purpose of your post?
To validate YOUR prediction?
Is there a satisfaction your gleam from your guess???
We are all under Hurricane Warning and people are preparing for a possibly horrible event.
So why go boast that your GUESS might be correct?
Is now the time to play "Look how smart I am"?
I do not see Pro Met next to your name.
So, are you smarter than they are?
Because they are all saying that this could be bad. Or maybe not.
If they don't know, then why are you boasting that your guess might be correct.

I'm off my soap box and Mods, PLEASE DO NOT SUSPEND ME!!!!!!!

That forecast came DIRECTLY from the NWS Miami, last time I checked they were down the hall from the NHC. So I would assume that the wind forecast that they are forecasting may have some validity. The forecast can certainly change and as far as I can see everyone is prepared for a hurricane hit.

My point is not the "validity".
I appreciate you sharing the information!
My point is the post reeked of "I WAS RIGHT"!
What is the purpose of that?

[South Texas Storms]

When is the next Euro model run?

It starts running at 1:45 AM/PM EDT each day.