ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rickybobby]

Saw more people returning stuff because it's heading west and probably going to miss Florida. I pleaded with a family with a baby to keep the stuff because it could still go east. They didn't listen and returned about $75 worth of supplies.

[Michele B]

I'm not a pro met, but the last minute turn into SW Florida that the models are predicting might stunt the storm surge threat. Storm surge builds up over time, and a sudden and quick turn by Irma might not allow the storm surge to catch up. The surge will likely still be bad, but my suspicion is that it will not be what we would normally expect from a large cat 4/5. Of course local residents should consult their emergency officials for advice on surge and storm impacts, not me.

Maybe it's wishful thinking, but that makes a lot of sense.

[Michele B]

I'm in a good mood...I just got the last sheltered spot in the concrete raised parking garage at Regional Southwest Airport...There's a reinforced concrete wall in front of the car...I rode my bicycle back and it took me 2 hours...


I'm mostly ready here at the house and just have to make sure I do my final preparations and lower the electric shutters etc...BIG weight off my mind...


No traffic...Roads are empty except some scurry'ers and paid movers doing last second removals...


My uncle just shot up I-75 to Tampa in normal fast traffic...


Steady wind from east...Weird disturbed clouds...Black butterflies all over the place...Terns were flocking on the causeway and whistling...Sanibel Chevron closed but pumps had "Self Serve" sign up...

Good job, Sanibel!!!

I think parking garages are the best-kept secret around!

[Joe Snow]

Question - with an Eye wall of approximately 50 miles and full force hurricane winds extending out 20 miles what's the swath of the wind field? 50+20+20 = 90 miles wide??

[wicked_wx_watcher]

I work at a Publix in Jupiter and all I'm hearing is talk that the storm is going over the west coast now and that we dodged a bullet from a good bit of people. Hard to know for sure if they may be correct or not with these models continuously trending little by little west but it also is a little complacent.

It will be like Harvey.... doesn't matter where you are, the storm will still find you.

Boy are they in for a surprise (most likely).

[BobHarlem]

Looks like both tightening and wnw movement. Wobble watching commences in earnest now until s fla

To assist, http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?301 is a long term recording of that Cuban radar.

[bahamaswx]

I've noticed that storms with disruption to their inner corse structure after passing over land (commonly the Yucatán) never really get it together again until they're well clear of land.

I imagine the situation here is similar, and she's struggling to complete the ERC due to interaction with Cuba.

[funster]

Question - with an Eye wall of approximately 50 miles and full force hurricane winds extending out 20 miles what's the swath of the wind field? 50+20+20 = 90 miles wide??

Per latest NHC update: "Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km)."

[Bocadude85]

At the risk of getting my hand slapped by The Hard Working Mods here at S2K, I have to ask the question:
What is the purpose of your post?
To validate YOUR prediction?
Is there a satisfaction your gleam from your guess???
We are all under Hurricane Warning and people are preparing for a possibly horrible event.
So why go boast that your GUESS might be correct?
Is now the time to play "Look how smart I am"?
I do not see Pro Met next to your name.
So, are you smarter than they are?
Because they are all saying that this could be bad. Or maybe not.
If they don't know, then why are you boasting that your guess might be correct.

I'm off my soap box and Mods, PLEASE DO NOT SUSPEND ME!!!!!!!

That forecast came DIRECTLY from the NWS Miami, last time I checked they were down the hall from the NHC. So I would assume that the wind forecast that they are forecasting may have some validity. The forecast can certainly change and as far as I can see everyone is prepared for a hurricane hit.

My point is not the "validity".
I appreciate you sharing the information!
My point is the post reeked of "I WAS RIGHT"!
What is the purpose of that?

The post had nothing to do with being right or wrong, the models shifted west and I felt that the potential wind impact had lessened for PBC and I backed that up with the NWS Miami wind projections. It's as simple as that. You and I have both been members of storm2k for years and we both know that forecasts can and will change. We should get a new wind projection around 5:30 and I will post that information when it becomes available.

[Michele B]

Remember TS Fay in '08, if the latest Euro is correct Irma could come in the same way Fay did, she never weakened coming across the flat swampy area SW of Lake Okeechobee, if anything she almost became a hurricane while she was on land.

https://youtu.be/a_04VkWnbn8

Yes sir indeed never forget Fey Fay I thought became a hurricane and they never upgraded it I'll never be convinced otherwise that they wasn't a hurricane it strengthened right over the Everglades so that you point it out in NDG and dumped all that rain on my house.16 inches worth but anyway that is an excellent observation NDG and if Irma comes across the Everglades, which is very possible now based on the latest Euro run, it may not weaken at all as it comes up the southern Peninsula very interesting 12Z EURO run for sure!

I don't know why I don't remember Fay, but it's true, there sure is a lot of water in the Everglades right now.

[nutkin517]

Saw more people returning stuff because it's heading west and probably going to miss Florida. I pleaded with a family with a baby to keep the stuff because it could still go east. They didn't listen and returned about $75 worth of supplies.

They're going to regret it. Going on week 2 here with no water after Harvey and it was a tropical storm. Even if Florida gets lucky, there are still almost 2 whole months left in hurricane season.

[AutoPenalti]

EWRC is just about finished, probably all that is left now is for it to respond to intensification.

[meriland29]

EWRC is just about finished, probably all that is left now is for it to respond to intensification.

Been hearing that for over a day.

[Frank P]

Long vis sat loop sure looks like it is slowly gaining latitude, at least to these old tired eyes... wnw seems reasonable..

[aprilflower]

Gang,

I've been a (very grateful for all of the information here) lurker for many years. I know as storms approach everyone tends to get jumpy and antsy, but I don't recall ever seeing the level of snark I've been seeing today. Can everyone PLEASE just take a breath, let it out, and remember that everyone sitting behind a keyboard is still human, JUST LIKE YOU. Isn't there enough legitimate stress out there without bringing unnecessarily ugliness in here?

/rant off.

[Zarniwoop]

Low vis sat loop sure looks like it is slowly gaining latitude, at least to these old tired eyes... wnw seems reasonable..

I am utterly useless and should not be listened to, but it doesn't look like a wobble to me either. It looks on the last several frames like its starting to climb a ladder.

[Steve]

I work at a Publix in Jupiter and all I'm hearing is talk that the storm is going over the west coast now and that we dodged a bullet from a good bit of people. Hard to know for sure if they may be correct or not with these models continuously trending little by little west but it also is a little complacent.

Group think. I hate it. Barber tells the salesman who tells the clerk who tells the paperboy who tells his mom who calls her friends and suddenly not only is there water on the moon and it's made of cheese, but they found rats there too. And faces. You know how that goes.

Use your eyes and common sense and trust the NHC to get the best information out. Don't listen to people b.s.ing. One of my sister's in-laws who didn't know I was a storm nerd once asked me if I had heard about the tornado coming! Uh, yeah I did. It was in the Caribbean.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Looks like both tightening and wnw movement. Wobble watching commences in earnest now until s fla

To assist, http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?301 is a long term recording of that Cuban radar.

Thank you! Was looking for something exactly like this.

Definitely looks like it's doing the WNW stairstep. Gonna be a close call for Cuba.

[Sciencerocks]

Low vis sat loop sure looks like it is slowly gaining latitude, at least to these old tired eyes... wnw seems reasonable..

I am utterly useless and should not be listened to, but it doesn't look like a wobble to me either. It looks on the last several frames like its starting to climb a ladder.

Also looks like that too me. Going to follow the coast of Cuba at 285-295 degrees.

[Frank P]

my favorite is... " that should about do it.. models should be locked in now' .... I don't know if the models ever lock in per se... always some kind of deviation be it very minor or major up to landfall....and its not like you see a major hurricane coming into FL from this direction to often..... its a tough and nightmarish forecast... regardless, its been an amazing storm to track...