ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

48 frame ir loop

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/ ... erDim=100#

jog nw last few frames

Does this jog represent the projected track, or is that going to have to be adjusted back to the east a few miles?

(I hope, I hope)

[curtadams]

EWRC is just about finished, probably all that is left now is for it to respond to intensification.

Been hearing that for over a day.

It's like "Waiting for Godot". And, hopefully, like Godot, it will never get here.

[Steve]

I've noticed that storms with disruption to their inner corse structure after passing over land (commonly the Yucatán) never really get it together again until they're well clear of land.

I imagine the situation here is similar, and she's struggling to complete the ERC due to interaction with Cuba.

Happens pretty frequently. The weird thing about Irma is that outside of where it was north of the Caribbean on Tuesday or Wednesday when it was setting that strength record, just south and southeast of Florida may be some of the most primed areas in the entire basin. Prior models have showed Irma getting very very strong tomorrow and tomorrow night in the run up to landfall. Some of those models were a little farther east though. So whether they got it right or not remains to be seen. But it's realistic that this could seriously deepen if it's not interfered with much and only be slightly weakening (if you can call a few mb's in the 900-teens or 920's) after that intensification burst.

Best bet is to read GCANE when it comes to that stuff. It can be technical with the Theta-E and Cape maps. But he'll tell you if you ask him. Also Aric is a good resource for the actual physics of a storm. He's very good with that even sometimes just at a glance.

[theavocado]

Can someone help me understand what is keeping this out of the gulf. I understand that there is a high pressure system that is breaking down and a short wave helping pull Irma up. I'm not hoping this thing will go into the gulf but wondering if there are other factors that make a trip past FL into the gulf non-conducive for her track.

A map describing what is going on would be awesome. Thanks Boys and Girls.

Putting a big heaping protective vibe over FL for the weekend... Best of luck to all involved!

It's not that there is anything keeping her from going to the Gulf, per se. The issue is that she's being influenced by the sub-tropical ridge (STR) to the north and east, which is steering her more or less due west. When this rather large trough moves through, the western edge of the ridge will orient in a more North/South direction, suddenly putting Irma on the western edge of the STR for a day, which will steer her north. Once the ridge builds back in, we see the track of the remnants steer back to the NW and into Georgia.

There are a couple of things that could move it into the gulf, but the professionals and the numerical guidance are in agreement that they are highly unlikely. At this point in the storm's life, looking for these to happen would be "-removed-" and no-one should reasonably expect these to happen or base plans on them.
- The first would be a delay in the approach of the trough. This would allow Irma to continue tracking west a little bit longer and move the landfall into the Florida panhandle.
- The second would be a rapid breakdown of the tough (frontolysis) that was missed by ALL numerical guidance. This breakdown would keep the ridge from reorienting and continue to steer the storm to fairly deep into the GOM.
- Finally, the ridge could be stronger than forecasted, resulting in the trough flattening out as it pass to the North with little to no reorientation of the STR, again allowing the predominate steering to remain westward.

It's human nature to see the storm as a thing that is moving on it's own (which there is a small element of that), but what's really happening is the storm is being steered by the gradients along the STR. Early in my training, the forecaster I was shadowing likened it to the Price is Right game Plinko! The storm is the plinko chip, and the STR is the row of pegs. The plinko chip is bouncing around trying to pass through the line of pegs. This trough is going to make a gap in the pegs large enough for the plinko chip, and all guidance indicates that it will take the bait.

[Michele B]

I work at a Publix in Jupiter and all I'm hearing is talk that the storm is going over the west coast now and that we dodged a bullet from a good bit of people. Hard to know for sure if they may be correct or not with these models continuously trending little by little west but it also is a little complacent.

I would say the TV Mets should be the ones to continue to reiterate the danger has NOT passed....everyone is listening to them....

At least we are, practically 24/7

[Ntxw]

Loop

[johngaltfla]

Loop

http://i65.tinypic.com/hsvvi9.gif

Go to hell Irma.

Or dissipate please.

[jdjaguar]

I work at a Publix in Jupiter and all I'm hearing is talk that the storm is going over the west coast now and that we dodged a bullet from a good bit of people. Hard to know for sure if they may be correct or not with these models continuously trending little by little west but it also is a little complacent.

Group think. I hate it. Barber tells the salesman who tells the clerk who tells the paperboy who tells his mom who calls her friends and suddenly not only is there water on the moon and it's made of cheese, but they found rats there too. And faces. You know how that goes.

Use your eyes and common sense and trust the NHC to get the best information out. Don't listen to people b.s.ing. One of my sister's in-laws who didn't know I was a storm nerd once asked me if I had heard about the tornado coming! Uh, yeah I did. It was in the Caribbean.

Agree about the groupthink, but to be factual, there IS water on the moon, but that discussion is for another forum

[Zarniwoop]

No matter what happens, she's been an incredible storm to follow.

What a performance from a purely aesthetic standpoint. This is not a celebration of the devastation that's already occurred and the damage and loss of life to come.

I wish she'd been a bit less stellar as she's caused some horrible damage.

[meriland29]

Even though I have been hearing about how she has been finishing her ERC for over a day, she has gained 5mph of strength as per nhc (and I still don't know why) however I dont know how tgr recent recon went.

[Centralflamama]

How's it looking lately for the Keys? Everyone I know left except one family.

[ronyan]

Even though I have been hearing about how she has been finishing her ERC for over a day, she has gained 5mph of strength as per nhc (and I still don't know why) however I dont know how tgr recent recon went.

Even meteorologists don't have a good understanding of everything that goes on with EWRCs. You can't really get definitive answers. Recon is in route to the storm.

[RL3AO]

How's it looking lately for the Keys? Everyone I know left except one family.

A near worst case scenario. Probably the worst storm since 1935.

[johngaltfla]

How's it looking lately for the Keys? Everyone I know left except one family.

IMHO, a complete and total disaster. The majority of the Florida Keys will experience Cat 4 or Cat 5 winds and massive storm surge. A friend of mine on Marathon said "why board up, it will be gone" and left their vacation home to Irma.

It's going to be that bad.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/906243916428701696




As with Katrina, a larger wind field produces a larger fetch. Depending on the landfall location and angle of approach, the storm surge could conceivably exceed ten feet locally, especially along the mangrove-lined canals and coves of Everglades National Park. Fortunately, that area is sparsely populated, but the geography just as readily applies to Naples, Marco Island, Goodland, Bonita Beach, Fort Myers, and Sanibel Island. Additionally, as has been mentioned previously, the contour influence of the berms in the lower Keys, including human additions such as spoil canals, docks, the former Florida East Coast railroad embankment, and the Overseas Highway (U.S. Route One), could easily cause large waves to pile up, first from Florida Bay via northeast flow, then from the Atlantic as winds back to the southeast. This happened in Donna and the 1935 hurricane, becoming a death trap in the latter, which was similar to Irma in intensity but much smaller. Bottom line: everyone in the Keys should have left by now, given the low-lying elevation and the complex topography at stake. Irma, like Katrina, has built up an enormous wave and surge potential due to its longevity and size as well as intensity, which should only increase as its wind field expands following the recent eyewall replacement cycle, and could grow as it has the potential to deepen a bit over the Gulf Stream before making landfall on the Keys and southwest mainland of Florida. Be prepared, people!

[johngaltfla]

How's it looking lately for the Keys? Everyone I know left except one family.

A near worst case scenario. Probably the worst storm since 1935.

And RL3AO is spot on. There are good odds that a lot of the bridges and highways into the Keys will be washed away.

[northjaxpro]

Irma continues to chug along at a decent clip, moving just slightly North of due West paralleling the north coast of Cuba. I have to say it looks more and more that Irma will avoid landfall of Cuba and it also looks like there are no indications of Irma slowing down yet to make that long-anticipated turn to the north. iIt ooks like it is going to probably get right at or just past 80 degrees longitude and if that happens, the Southwest coast of Florida is going to be the landfall point for Irma once the turn finally happens.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like Irma is following the NHC's track.

[johngaltfla]

Irma continues to chug along at a decent clip, moving just slightly North of due West paralleling the north coast of Cuba. I have to say it looks more and more that Irma will avoid landfall of Cuba and it also looks like there are no indications of Irma slowing down yet to make that long-anticipated turn to the north. iIt ooks like it is going to probably get right at or just past 80 degrees longitude and if that happens, the Southwest coast of Florida is going to be the landfall point for Irma once the turn finally happens.

And this truly will be an epic disaster.

Seriously.

[Centralflamama]

How's it looking lately for the Keys? Everyone I know left except one family.

A near worst case scenario. Probably the worst storm since 1935.

And RL3AO is spot on. There are good odds that a lot of the bridges and highways into the Keys will be washed away.

I am literally sick they didn't leave. You should see the posts of People sitting around drinking like it's not big thing.