ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Skogebo]

I'm just a lowly lurker here but I have a question someone might be able to help with. Earlier today Shepard Smith showed a spaghetti model that showed one of the many scary lines going all the way to New Orleans. How do these outliers happen? I mean, I'm just thinking that a lot off people might see that and go into a mindset that they're out of harms way. Are these caused by an error in the software or human error? And why are they shown at all when they're that far off from what the NHC and others are predicting? I mean, I've only barely seen a few people here mention it getting into the GoM. None that say New Orleans.

[JtSmarts]

John Morales was just pleading with anyone who was on the Keys to get out immediately.

[RL3AO]

A near worst case scenario. Probably the worst storm since 1935.

And RL3AO is spot on. There are good odds that a lot of the bridges and highways into the Keys will be washed away.

I am literally sick they didn't leave. You should see the posts of People sitting around drinking like it's not big thing.

I hope those people don't pay for that decision with their life. They'll need a concrete/steel building well above sea level to avoid the storm surge.

[Centralflamama]

How's it looking lately for the Keys? Everyone I know left except one family.

IMHO, a complete and total disaster. The majority of the Florida Keys will experience Cat 4 or Cat 5 winds and massive storm surge. A friend of mine on Marathon said "why board up, it will be gone" and left their vacation home to Irma.

It's going to be that bad.

That's what I thought. Unfortunately, they won't listen to reason. To make matters worse they have an "open" house with super flimsy doors and some areas are open all the time I think? They have hurricane shutters but you can see so much light from the edge... I thought they were supposed to be like blacked out. I know the shutters my dad has in his houses on the gulf black the house out entirely.

[Connekto]

First post, long time lurker of storm2k since i've moved to florida. This storm has been amazing. Thank you storm2k mods, pro mets, and aric for everything. As soon as this storm formed i had a bad feeling.

Hope everyone on here who is in florida and staying during the storm stays safe. I'll try to provide updates so long as its safe to do so and i have internet.

[RL3AO]

And why are they shown at all when they're that far off from what the NHC and others are predicting?

A question I've been asking for days now. A couple days ago the spaghetti plots showed most of Irma tracks east of Miami. People in W FL started returning supplies. A lot will be learned about how meteorologists communicate when so many people try to look at the models themselves and make a decision.

[La Sirena]

A near worst case scenario. Probably the worst storm since 1935.

And RL3AO is spot on. There are good odds that a lot of the bridges and highways into the Keys will be washed away.

I am literally sick they didn't leave. You should see the posts of People sitting around drinking like it's not big thing.

My FB feed is full of it, too. I lived on Big Pine....a lot of Piners stayed.

[Zarniwoop]

I'm just a lowly lurker here but I have a question someone might be able to help with. Earlier today Shepard Smith showed a spaghetti model that showed one of the many scary lines going all the way to New Orleans. How do these outliers happen? I mean, I'm just thinking that a lot off people might see that and go into a mindset that they're out of harms way. Are these caused by an error in the software or human error? And why are they shown at all when they're that far off from what the NHC and others are predicting? I mean, I've only barely seen a few people here mention it getting into the GoM. None that say New Orleans.

Edit: Ignore this answer. I just realized I was answering someone that knows way more than I do

[jlauderdal]

John Morales was just pleading with anyone who was on the Keys to get out immediately.

yep, he is looking at the same thing we are..he also just said the cone is coming west at 5

[dukeblue219]

I'm just a lowly lurker here but I have a question someone might be able to help with. Earlier today Shepard Smith showed a spaghetti model that showed one of the many scary lines going all the way to New Orleans. How do these outliers happen? I mean, I'm just thinking that a lot off people might see that and go into a mindset that they're out of harms way. Are these caused by an error in the software or human error? And why are they shown at all when they're that far off from what the NHC and others are predicting? I mean, I've only barely seen a few people here mention it getting into the GoM. None that say New Orleans.

Some of those spaghetti charts are collections of random, terrible, low-grade models. So those crazy tracks would be just terrible models (some of which are based on history, not current conditions, others based just on projected course, that type of thing). No way they're smarter than the big boys.

OTHER spaghetti charts are the ensembles members of, for example, the EURO and GFS. These are a little more useful. In this case the initial conditions of the model are tinkered with just a bit to produce varied outputs. Since the real world initial conditions can never be perfectly measured, it's important to see how varied the output can be. If those tracks mostly line up then it's clear that there's high probability that is the right solution. A single stray ensemble member that goes off somewhere like New Orleans can probably be ignored, especially if the overall weather picture doesn't support it, and that's where model analysis by experts like the NHC comes into play.

[fci]

That forecast came DIRECTLY from the NWS Miami, last time I checked they were down the hall from the NHC. So I would assume that the wind forecast that they are forecasting may have some validity. The forecast can certainly change and as far as I can see everyone is prepared for a hurricane hit.

My point is not the "validity".
I appreciate you sharing the information!
My point is the post reeked of "I WAS RIGHT"!
What is the purpose of that?

The post had nothing to do with being right or wrong, the models shifted west and I felt that the potential wind impact had lessened for PBC and I backed that up with the NWS Miami wind projections. It's as simple as that. You and I have both been members of storm2k for years and we both know that forecasts can and will change. We should get a new wind projection around 5:30 and I will post that information when it becomes available.

Really?
Here is the current Hurricane Local Statement from the NWS Miami to back up my personal opinion.

[jlauderdal]

John Morales was just pleading with anyone who was on the Keys to get out immediately.

yep, he is looking at the same thing we are..he also just said the cone is coming west at 5

he also said it will be increased to a cat 5

[Pearl River]

I hope the bridges between Key West and the mainland stay intact and that we don't see something like what happened to the I-10 Twin Spans between New Orleans and Slidell or the Bay Bridge in Bay St Louis. It was unbelievable. Born, raised and lived her in St Tammany Parish most of my life, I would have never thought something like that could happen......Stay safe Florida peeps!!

http://www.recmod.com/hurricane/hurricane2005/katrina/neworleans/i-10bridge-2a.jpg

[jdjaguar]

I'm just a lowly lurker here but I have a question someone might be able to help with. Earlier today Shepard Smith showed a spaghetti model that showed one of the many scary lines going all the way to New Orleans. How do these outliers happen? I mean, I'm just thinking that a lot off people might see that and go into a mindset that they're out of harms way. Are these caused by an error in the software or human error? And why are they shown at all when they're that far off from what the NHC and others are predicting? I mean, I've only barely seen a few people here mention it getting into the GoM. None that say New Orleans.

Ignore Shephard Smith.

Pay attention to the NHC

[ronyan]

I'm just a lowly lurker here but I have a question someone might be able to help with. Earlier today Shepard Smith showed a spaghetti model that showed one of the many scary lines going all the way to New Orleans. How do these outliers happen? I mean, I'm just thinking that a lot off people might see that and go into a mindset that they're out of harms way. Are these caused by an error in the software or human error? And why are they shown at all when they're that far off from what the NHC and others are predicting? I mean, I've only barely seen a few people here mention it getting into the GoM. None that say New Orleans.

Ignore Shephard Smith.

Pay attention to the NHC

Probably CLP or XTRP 'models'.

[jlauderdal]

My point is not the "validity".
I appreciate you sharing the information!
My point is the post reeked of "I WAS RIGHT"!
What is the purpose of that?

The post had nothing to do with being right or wrong, the models shifted west and I felt that the potential wind impact had lessened for PBC and I backed that up with the NWS Miami wind projections. It's as simple as that. You and I have both been members of storm2k for years and we both know that forecasts can and will change. We should get a new wind projection around 5:30 and I will post that information when it becomes available.

Really?
Here is the current Hurricane Local Statement from the NWS Miami to back up my personal opinion.

you two are smarter than to split hairs like this, been reading both of your posts for years...prepare for major hurricane winds, anything less consider ourselves lucky

[PandaCitrus]

The Keys will look like Tortola on the British Virgin Islands. Newer buildings built to 200mph wind standards and elevated should do OK. Possible roof, exterior wall, window and interior damage but not total destruction. We hope. All the homes from the 50s -80s on sea level will be gone and razed sadly. They won't be allowed to be rebuilt because they don't meet current codes. The land will be sold to the millionaires and it will only make the workforce housing issue on the keys even worse.

[theavocado]

I'm just a lowly lurker here but I have a question someone might be able to help with. Earlier today Shepard Smith showed a spaghetti model that showed one of the many scary lines going all the way to New Orleans. How do these outliers happen? I mean, I'm just thinking that a lot off people might see that and go into a mindset that they're out of harms way. Are these caused by an error in the software or human error? And why are they shown at all when they're that far off from what the NHC and others are predicting? I mean, I've only barely seen a few people here mention it getting into the GoM. None that say New Orleans.

The model over New Orleans was the TCLP (Trajectory CLImatology and Persistance). This is not a skilled model (model that has super-computers doing fancy calculations) but is a simple tool that shows where a storm would go based on current trajectory using the average track of all the historical storms from this location and time of year. It is a tool used for very weak storms that have not "initialized" into the skilled models, and runs automatically on any invest and storm in the NHC/CPHC/JTWC environment.

[nutkin517]

I honestly feel like the different models being show on TV is irresponsible. The majority of people get all of their information from the weather channel or their local news. If they just see a cone, there is a lot less interpretation that they can do. But when you start showing different spaghetti models, people see one going in a different direction and think they are safe. Average people cannot interpret things that like that and make good decisions.

[Andy_L]

Is recon due into Irma soon?