ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

And RL3AO is spot on. There are good odds that a lot of the bridges and highways into the Keys will be washed away.

I am literally sick they didn't leave. You should see the posts of People sitting around drinking like it's not big thing.

I hope those people don't pay for that decision with their life. They'll need a concrete/steel building well above sea level to avoid the storm surge.

And outside of USN and USAF buildings down there, they are few and far between. NONE of the bars on Duval St. are up to this kind of storm, nor the B&B's.

[jdjaguar]

And RL3AO is spot on. There are good odds that a lot of the bridges and highways into the Keys will be washed away.

I am literally sick they didn't leave. You should see the posts of People sitting around drinking like it's not big thing.

I hope those people don't pay for that decision with their life. They'll need a concrete/steel building well above sea level to avoid the storm surge.

Not sure such a thing exists in Key West, apart from the base and the airport.

[RL3AO]

Not sure such a thing exists in Key West, apart from the base and the airport.

NWS Key West has a safe room built for 200 mph winds.

[johngaltfla]

I'm just a lowly lurker here but I have a question someone might be able to help with. Earlier today Shepard Smith showed a spaghetti model that showed one of the many scary lines going all the way to New Orleans. How do these outliers happen? I mean, I'm just thinking that a lot off people might see that and go into a mindset that they're out of harms way. Are these caused by an error in the software or human error? And why are they shown at all when they're that far off from what the NHC and others are predicting? I mean, I've only barely seen a few people here mention it getting into the GoM. None that say New Orleans.

Ignore Shephard Smith.

Pay attention to the NHC

Best advice thus far besides boarding up.

FNC/Shep Smith = Clueless Drama Queen.

Pay attention to the pros here and the NHC.

[dukeblue219]

Is recon due into Irma soon?

Yes, the NOAA plane is just getting into the meat of the storm. Probably another 20 minutes until the center fix, and another 10 or so afterwards for the data to arrive.

[Skogebo]

I'm just a lowly lurker here but I have a question someone might be able to help with. Earlier today Shepard Smith showed a spaghetti model that showed one of the many scary lines going all the way to New Orleans. How do these outliers happen? I mean, I'm just thinking that a lot off people might see that and go into a mindset that they're out of harms way. Are these caused by an error in the software or human error? And why are they shown at all when they're that far off from what the NHC and others are predicting? I mean, I've only barely seen a few people here mention it getting into the GoM. None that say New Orleans.

Ignore Shephard Smith.

Pay attention to the NHC

Oh I agree. I've always stood firmly on the side of caution with hurricanes. I just know most people really don't know the difference in where the information comes from.

I'm helping a Harvey Relief effort here in South Texas and several families told me they don't have cable, they only stream music and Netflix. One lady didn't know a hurricane was coming until the night Harvey made landfall.

[otowntiger]

Irma continues to chug along at a decent clip, moving just slightly North of due West paralleling the north coast of Cuba. I have to say it looks more and more that Irma will avoid landfall of Cuba and it also looks like there are no indications of Irma slowing down yet to make that long-anticipated turn to the north. iIt ooks like it is going to probably get right at or just past 80 degrees longitude and if that happens, the Southwest coast of Florida is going to be the landfall point for Irma once the turn finally happens.

I'm not sure that it actually needs to slow down before making the turn. I could be wrong. It's not like a car that needs to brake to safely turn.

[dukeblue219]

For what it's worth, folks, I've started using a different imagery source for the GOES-16 loops: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 2-200-1-10

The CSU slider page was really flaky for me this afternoon, but COD has been rock solid and appears to auto update in the background.

[Kat5]

Looking like she's making a run for Cuban cigars.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 082049
NOAA2 2311A IRMA HDOB 09 20170908
203930 2319N 07823W 6945 03166 0009 +112 +047 037065 067 031 003 00
204000 2317N 07823W 6949 03160 0007 +111 +077 036065 067 030 002 00
204030 2314N 07823W 6955 03151 0006 +111 +068 032062 064 031 001 00
204100 2312N 07823W 6957 03145 0008 +106 +088 028061 062 031 001 00
204130 2309N 07823W 6950 03152 0000 +112 +081 027059 059 031 002 00
204200 2307N 07824W 6958 03140 9996 +111 +097 028056 057 029 002 00
204230 2304N 07824W 6956 03145 0002 +105 +098 023052 054 033 004 00
204300 2302N 07824W 6953 03144 9999 +106 +095 027054 056 034 003 00
204330 2259N 07824W 6966 03127 9989 +112 +101 031057 059 035 005 00
204400 2257N 07823W 6964 03128 9991 +108 +106 032064 066 035 006 00
204430 2254N 07823W 6957 03135 9990 +105 //// 031071 074 034 006 01
204500 2252N 07822W 6951 03136 9989 +105 +102 033077 080 034 006 00
204530 2250N 07821W 6968 03116 9989 +104 +096 037073 077 034 006 00
204600 2248N 07819W 6945 03142 9986 +105 +091 037061 062 033 005 00
204630 2247N 07817W 6957 03123 9985 +105 +083 038061 063 033 004 00
204700 2247N 07815W 6982 03092 9983 +105 +076 039066 066 033 003 00
204730 2246N 07814W 6956 03123 9978 +110 +070 037066 067 035 002 00
204800 2245N 07812W 6955 03120 9981 +104 +059 038064 065 034 003 00
204830 2244N 07810W 6966 03104 9980 +102 +061 037063 064 035 003 00
204900 2243N 07808W 6956 03114 9984 +096 +077 034061 062 035 004 00

[ronyan]

The media seems to be confused about size vs strength of a storm. CNN: 'Hurricane Andrew was huge, Irma is bigger'. LOL

[nascarfan999]

And why are they shown at all when they're that far off from what the NHC and others are predicting?

A question I've been asking for days now. A couple days ago the spaghetti plots showed most of Irma tracks east of Miami. People in W FL started returning supplies. A lot will be learned about how meteorologists communicate when so many people try to look at the models themselves and make a decision.

I won't go into much detail because right now our thoughts and prayers need to remain with those in the path of the storm, but I've always viewed the job of the NWS (including the NHC) to communicate to other meteorologists and similar educated parties (media, emergency management, etc.) and not necessarily to the general public. It seems the cooperation and work of these various partners as "messengers for the NWS" to get the word to the public hasn't quite been there for this storm like it should. Something that I think needs discussing after we get through this, but again, for now, my thoughts to go those in the path.

[Zarniwoop]

For what it's worth, folks, I've started using a different imagery source for the GOES-16 loops: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 2-200-1-10

The CSU slider page was really flaky for me this afternoon, but COD has been rock solid and appears to auto update in the background.

That is stupendous!

Is the Eyewall tightening towards the end there or getting ragged?

[caneseddy]

NHC 5 pm advisory now has a Cat 5 impacting the Keys

[Sanibel]

Good news...I bought a square-headed chuck at Bailey's and a neighbor helped me get up to the storm shutters on a ladder to get the covers off and we fixed the two jammed steel shutters...All the hurricane shutters work all the way around...Good, I'm going to need them...I'm feeling a little shot...Very, very good luck today...

Bailey's closed at 5pm...And will be closed until Irma passes...

[dizzyfish]

I haven't looked at the models since first thing this morning and almost fainted a bit ago. We spent the day getting the boards ready and moving the heavy stuff I couldn't move by myself yesterday. Just a little bit more to do tomorrow morning.

I had to run to the pharmacy to pick up some meds (dog) and only saw 7 or 8 places that were boarded up. Wow. This may be the ugliest thing I have ever seen.

I'll check in tomorrow. Wishing you all the best.

[curtadams]

My FB feed is full of it, too. I lived on Big Pine....a lot of Piners stayed.

That's really frightening. With anything like the current course the island could be completely underwater. Why would anybody risk that?

[srainhoutx]

Not sure such a thing exists in Key West, apart from the base and the airport.

NWS Key West has a safe room built for 200 mph winds.

Actually the safe room was built to withstand 250 MPH. It's literally a bomb shelter.

[supercane4867]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..510NE 180SE 60SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 76.5W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 76.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.4N 78.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.0N 79.9W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.1N 81.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.7N 81.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.6N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 100NW.

[Crackbone]

NHC 5 pm advisory now has a Cat 5 impacting the Keys

Anyone that's still down there needs to run for their life. I fear that anyone left down there not in a hurricane bunker will not be left to tell the tale.