ATL: IRMA - Models

[sponger]

This run will be closer to FL than previous 3 runs, IMO.

not sure it could get closer without landfall, right? Or was the last run still that far off shore? Or am I confusing it with the Euro or NHC track?

Last 3 runs showed no FL landfall.

This run looks closer.

[norva]

Maybe a start of a slight trend back west?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Further west again on the 12z GFS. Track very similar to NHC's track I believe. Well, this is why you do not quit preparing if you live in Florida.

[South Texas Storms]

12z GFS looks like it shows landfall near Miami Sunday morning.

[gatorcane]

[Hurricane Andrew]

12z GFS looks like it shows landfall near Miami Sunday morning.

RFQ winds are like...10 miles off the coast. One wobble west, and verbatim, 150mph+ sustained would hit land.

[chris_fit]

GFS Trend @ 102 hrs

[ColdFront77]

It was just updated at 11 am. The point is now off the east coast, but I'm unfamiliar with Florida geography so I'll defer to you as to what city it's off of.

It is 42 miles north of Cape Canaveral.

I believe the previous 5 day point was somewhere inland Broward County, now it's just SE of Daytona. Irma's going to be picking up speed as she crosses Florida.

Wed 9/06 at 11am: 18.2N 64.0W
Wed 9/06 at 8pm: 19.0N 66.2W...17.11mph
Thu 9/07 at 8am: 20.2N 69.0W...16.67
Thu 9/07 at 8pm: 21.2N 71.7W...15.67
Fri 9/08 at 8am: 21.9N 74.2W...14.00
Sat 9/09 at 8am: 22.9N 78.1W...10.75
Sun 9/10 at 8am: 25.2N 80.0W... 8.29
Mon 9/11 at 8am: 29.0N 80.5W...11.00

[SunnyThoughts]

Jose sure is getting fairly close to Irma. Wonder if it will have any affect on her.

[RL3AO]

Man...who could have possibly predicted that the people declaring Florida safe this morning out look so stupid so soon...

[gatorcane]

[chris_fit]

Was really hoping for a push East, doesn not look like this is the case.

[xironman]

12z GFS looks like it shows landfall near Miami Sunday morning.

Looks like the shortwave is in Alabama, that's different but Irma should head back off the coast, but what it means down the road...

[jlauderdal]

Man...who could have possibly predicted that the people declaring Florida safe this morning out look so stupid so soon...

Our state isnt known for having the highest iq in the land...keep preparing Floridians regardless of spaghetti models

[Hurricane Andrew]

Man...who could have possibly predicted that the people declaring Florida safe this morning out look so stupid so soon...

People are RETURNING supplies. Now we see the mad rush to get them back, should the ECM also come west. My goodness...I have chills. I really do.

[norva]

Total amateur but I feel like as we get closer this windshield wiper effect will likely equalize over Florida back to where we were the other day. I felt this Matthew 2.0 scenario felt a little too good to be true. That being said this is just one run and it may go east again later. Who knows, very frustrating when you live right in that cone

[RL3AO]

I temporarily locked the thread so I can clean it up. The stupid posts are coming in too fast.

[CourierPR]

Man...who could have possibly predicted that the people declaring Florida safe this morning out look so stupid so soon...

People are RETURNING supplies. Now we see the mad rush to get them back, should the ECM also come west. My goodness...I have chills. I really do.

The NHC warned us to not base decisions on model runs.

[Jevo]

Well... that sure throws a wrench into things... I wish Channel 10 in Miami didn't post those spaghetti plots; people in the office here in fort Lauderdale are already calling Irma, Matthew 2.

[RL3AO]