ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

NWS Key West, not mincing words!

 https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/906266219304685568

[Kat5]

Ed Rappaport (acting NHC director) just stated on NBC6 that the current slow down is the signal that the turn may be starting soon

I don't think its slowing down... it's still moving at a decent clip.

Reason why we need recon.

[caneseddy]

Ed Rappaport (acting NHC director) just stated on NBC6 that the current slow down is the signal that the turn may be starting soon

I don't think its slowing down... it's still moving at a decent clip.

Reason why we need recon.

Agreed. At least Gonzo should be close to if not already in the storm

[Stangfriik]

Apologies for the lack of proper terminology but that front or whatever it is thats bringing us rain in New Smyrna right now seems to extend all the way to the gulf. Does this affect the steering pattern of Irma?

[bing]

I have been a lurker for YEARS; THANK EVERYONE for your input on this forum. I have been glued to my screen for days! (not a pro or met or anything)

[Scorpion]

I will be driving out to either LaBelle or Immokalee to try and intercept the eye. Wish me luck.

[ava_ati]

What changed the last couple of runs? They were thinking a high 2 low 3 for Jacksonville yesterday, a high 1 maybe 2 this morning and now a strong TS low 1, and the time over land hasn't really changed much since the initial shift west a few runs ago.

[RL3AO]

I will be driving out to either LaBelle or Immokalee to try and intercept the eye. Wish me luck.

Be aware of storm surge. 10 to 15 feet plus 30 to 40 ft waves.

[fci]

I work at a Publix in Jupiter and all I'm hearing is talk that the storm is going over the west coast now and that we dodged a bullet from a good bit of people. Hard to know for sure if they may be correct or not with these models continuously trending little by little west but it also is a little complacent.

That's been the trend for 24 hours now and each advisory package has a bit of a westward forecast.
I'm in Palm Beach County and run the StormCaribe "How close can it get" for every package and it has gone from 161 miles on Tuesday down to 1.3 miles and each advisory the past 24 hours have increased it. From 1 to 5 to 8 to 30 to 50 to 79 and 94.2 at 5:00 PM. Should that be the case or it even expands to further away from Metropolitan East Coast; I will have ZERO regrets for the preparation we have undertaken and I will do it again the next time. Too much at risk.

[stormreader]

Looks like a drop to 923 mb if I'm reading the HDOB correctly:

211200 2212N 07646W 6961 02515 9238 +203 +117 052047 051 045 002 00
211230 2210N 07645W 6951 02522 9231 +203 +111 047034 038 035 002 00
211300 2209N 07643W 6949 02519 9226 +202 +112 041019 024 022 001 00
211330 2207N 07642W 6957 02508 9229 +193 +140 037006 009 014 001 03
211400 2206N 07640W 6963 02507 9236 +190 +160 239008 013 010 002 00

Edited: And with some surface wind. I'm not sure of the correction factor for surface winds.

Drop of 4 mb's. You wonder, knowing this storm's history. It hasn't been below 155mph for days now! What if it cycled down just a little bit lately, they all do (but this storm's cyclying down is still 155mph). And now after a little breather, and more importantly in a different environment (one of the very best in the basin) you have very solid pressure falls over the next 24 hours. I think this is very possible, and that the 160 mph posted by the NHC for the keys might be conservative. We've never really seen a storm like this. This kind of sustained intensity.

[SoupBone]

When's the last time the U.S. had a cat 5 landfall? Most weaken before they hit.

[Frank P]

well its almost hard to argue against Irma re-strengthening when a very well developed and mature hurricane is entering an environment with some of the hottest waters its seen, no shear and dry air to affect it whatsoever, and moving at a nominal speed... the only outlier in this would be for Irma to take a more than expected course into Cuba... NHC doesn't think Cuba should affect it however or at least minimal impacts...

[caneseddy]

When's the last time the U.S. had a cat 5 landfall? Most weaken before they hit.

Hurricane Andrew

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/906267775647305733

[Meteorcane]

Looks like a drop to 923 mb if I'm reading the HDOB correctly:

211200 2212N 07646W 6961 02515 9238 +203 +117 052047 051 045 002 00
211230 2210N 07645W 6951 02522 9231 +203 +111 047034 038 035 002 00
211300 2209N 07643W 6949 02519 9226 +202 +112 041019 024 022 001 00
211330 2207N 07642W 6957 02508 9229 +193 +140 037006 009 014 001 03
211400 2206N 07640W 6963 02507 9236 +190 +160 239008 013 010 002 00

Edited: And with some surface wind. I'm not sure of the correction factor for surface winds.

Drop of 4 mb's. You wonder, knowing this storm's history. It hasn't been below 155mph for days now! What if it cycled down just a little bit lately, they all do (but this storm's cyclying down is still 155mph). And now after a little breather, and more importantly in a different environment (one of the very best in the basin) you have very solid pressure falls over the next 24 hours. I think this is very possible, and that the 160 mph posted by the NHC for the keys might be conservative. We've never really seen a storm like this. This kind of sustained intensity.

That is estimated pressure and usually has a negative bias, drop will probably be 3-4 mb higher

[RL3AO]

When's the last time the U.S. had a cat 5 landfall? Most weaken before they hit.

Andrew. Labor Day (Florida Keys) and Camille are the others.

[La Sirena]

My FB feed is full of it, too. I lived on Big Pine....a lot of Piners stayed.

That's really frightening. With anything like the current course the island could be completely underwater. Why would anybody risk that?

For the life of me I really don't know. Some just don't have the money to take care of themselves if they took the free bus out....some didn't want to leave their property (looters were already out and about on several of the lower Keys yesterday)...some just think that the storm is all hype.

Personally, we would have bugged out early had we still been there.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 082129
NOAA2 2311A IRMA HDOB 13 20170908
211930 2215N 07617W 6969 02771 9576 +129 //// 161132 136 103 054 01
212000 2216N 07615W 6965 02814 9624 +124 //// 163125 126 095 031 01
212030 2217N 07613W 6959 02852 9667 +118 //// 162117 120 087 009 01
212100 2218N 07611W 6960 02879 9698 +116 //// 159109 112 081 007 01
212130 2219N 07609W 6956 02906 9719 +121 +114 157103 104 075 006 00
212200 2220N 07607W 6956 02924 9742 +117 +114 155100 103 076 007 00
212230 2222N 07606W 6958 02933 9761 +115 +110 154098 098 074 007 00
212300 2223N 07604W 6957 02949 9770 +117 //// 155094 095 071 008 01
212330 2224N 07602W 6963 02951 9780 +118 //// 157090 091 068 014 01
212400 2225N 07600W 6952 02976 9788 +119 //// 162088 091 070 014 01
212430 2226N 07558W 6952 02982 9799 +116 //// 165094 097 074 021 01
212500 2227N 07556W 6954 02989 9809 +117 //// 162091 093 072 018 01
212530 2228N 07554W 6958 02993 9821 +115 //// 158085 088 068 015 01
212600 2229N 07552W 6965 02994 9833 +114 //// 159084 085 068 011 01
212630 2230N 07550W 6963 03004 9846 +112 //// 161087 090 076 010 01
212700 2231N 07548W 6959 03015 9860 +107 //// 158092 095 071 011 01
212730 2232N 07546W 6968 03014 9866 +110 //// 158092 094 067 015 01
212800 2233N 07544W 6956 03036 9878 +105 //// 159091 093 064 014 01
212830 2234N 07542W 6959 03037 9884 +107 //// 161088 090 062 012 01
212900 2235N 07540W 6962 03043 9891 +109 //// 163083 085 061 010 01

[stormreader]

yeah the west movement has stopped to me and I suspect the models were picking up on this jog and shifted west to compensate. Would not be surprised if they swung a tad east now on tonight's runs with Gonzo flying. Personally, until the NWS can pin point an actual track they are going on best guess in winds for Miami. If she does shift east those forecasts will need to be amended to show increased impacts....JMO...

Are you getting a feel for a shift a bit east or is it becoming established that the westward movement has sealed the west movement from today to be firm?

Still don't know the exact angle of the turn. How sharp will the turn be. It could still end up near the SW Fl coast with a more gradual turn. Hard to see it missing Fl to the east now, anything possible. But as so many have said, SE to SW Fl in play. Angle of the turn.

[Steve]

Even though I have been hearing about how she has been finishing her ERC for over a day, she has gained 5mph of strength as per nhc (and I still don't know why) however I dont know how tgr recent recon went.

Even meteorologists don't have a good understanding of everything that goes on with EWRCs. You can't really get definitive answers. Recon is in route to the storm.

That's right. It wasn't Meriland but as an aside someone was complaining today in this thread that they'd been hearing about this supposed eyewall replacement cycle for the last 24 hours and it hasn't happened to finish yet. It's weakening!!!!

It reminded me of the arguments we had throughout July and the first half of August on how this season was or wasn't going to be a bust in the seasonal indicators thread. I guess we live in an Everything Now(damnit!) world where we're used to getting what we want when we want it from food to information to groceries to whatever. The tropics don't work that way. It takes time, and patience. There are no clear or concise answers. Science is helpful for broader tropical parameters, but mother nature is going to do what she does on her time. We don't know and can't predict everything.