ATL: IRMA - Models

[Sanibel]

The next Euro run will be significant since GFS did not shift further east...

[sma10]

12z UKMET:

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 63.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2017 0 18.1N 63.3W 957 81
0000UTC 07.09.2017 12 19.1N 65.8W 958 78
1200UTC 07.09.2017 24 20.0N 68.6W 958 73
0000UTC 08.09.2017 36 20.9N 71.4W 943 86
1200UTC 08.09.2017 48 21.4N 73.7W 946 86
0000UTC 09.09.2017 60 21.7N 75.8W 941 86
1200UTC 09.09.2017 72 21.8N 78.0W 947 83
0000UTC 10.09.2017 84 22.2N 79.6W 945 89
1200UTC 10.09.2017 96 23.3N 80.3W 933 86
0000UTC 11.09.2017 108 25.0N 80.2W 921 96
1200UTC 11.09.2017 120 27.5N 80.4W 922 96
0000UTC 12.09.2017 132 30.1N 80.6W 934 85
1200UTC 12.09.2017 144 33.1N 80.8W 957 62

Similar to 00z all lined up now...

What an utterly devastating track this is. I don't even want to contemplate it.

[northjaxpro]

The just released GFS run is the worst case scenario for the East Coast of Florida and the entire coast region up.to the South Carolina coast.

The western eye wall would brush or scrape right along much of the coast, which would be catastrophoc with bringing the worst portion closest to shore. This is not good all the way up to Savannah.

This path is very reminiscent of Hurricane David in 1979. But, this time, Irma is much much stronger than David was at the time he was moving parallel to the Florida East Coast and would be moving literally closer right along the coast .

[SouthFLTropics]

The next Euro run will be significant since GFS did not shift further east...

Agreed...The next Euro run will be the most important run of the Euro for Florida and the East Coast since Matthew of last year. It's Euro's hand and it's holding all the cards at the moment.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z HWRF is running and is SW of 06z at 15 hours

[NDG]

For what is worth the bipolar CMC also shifted west.

[MatthewsRevenge]

The next Euro run will be significant since GFS did not shift further east...

Agreed...The next Euro run will be the most important run of the Euro for Florida and the East Coast since Matthew of last year. It's Euro's hand and it's holding all the cards at the moment.

What time does that start? 1:30?

1:45 pm.

[GCANE]

The average of the latest ECME and ECMO (the two best performing models) is exactly where 12Z GFS is.
IMHO, not going to be much more debate.
Miami hit and rake the coast.

[BucMan2]

SouthFLTropics- with the NHC center saying their errors in day 4 and 5 are 175 to 225 miles on average don't you think
it is still possible for a more westerly movement back over the state especially with not knowing strength of shortwave and
if the high is building back quicker than expected?

[chris_fit]

HWRF is slightly South @ 30hrs

[tolakram]

Topic is temporarily locked.

Euro runs at 1:45PM, HWRF is running now.

Too much back and forth in here, and frankly I don't care where you think it's going unless you are a model (not that kind of model ), or are interpreting a model. There's too much thinking without enough evidence in here and it's not helpful.

It will be unlocked shortly.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS continues NNW past SFL into GA then NW into W Virginia... No hint of an E component up to W Virginia...

[RL3AO]

HWRF a little to the SW of previous run.

[chris_fit]

Trend @ 45hrs....

12Z is faster/W - maybe a smidge S

[chris_fit]

HWRF just a little faster than 06Z Run - Same Lat

[Guadua]

I've noticed the trough seems to be dropping further west of what the GFS an Euro show.


GFS

Euro

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF approaching Andros Island. Most recent runs had the turn happening just after Andros. Let's see what it does this time.

[Blown Away]

Tracking Irma on the 00z Euro ensembles... I think my dots are pretty close and Irma looks to be just S of the mean consensus line??

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'll say this much. Given the current trend of the models, if I were anywhere from the Carolinas to Long Island I would be watching Irma very closely until, at least, this weekend.

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON wants to destroy South Florida. Is there any reason why this model is so much higher in intensity than say the HWRF???