ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

IF there's a silver lining in the change in the track is the fact that the actual spot of landfall (not the Keys, but Everglades City area, 10,000 Islands), is less populated than South Miami....so probable less loss of life.

I've been thinking about this too.
Certainly a direct hit on Everglades City seems much more "preferable" (better scenario) than hitting Miami.
Less of an economic impact for sure.

But I almost fear a higher death toll with a track up the center of the state which has a lot of mobile homes / modular houses...
Yes, vastly smaller population, but poorer, perhaps less able to evacuate, and less-sturdy houses...

[jlauderdal]

Sorry to quote myself but I didn't get a response. I know this board is fast moving and especially under these circumstances.
My friend who is due to fly out to Orlando is literally sat contemplating whether or not to get on her flight.... any help would be amazing.
Thank you

I've got friends worried about their loved ones on holiday in Orlando who have not been given a flight out. They have very young children and are in a pure state if panic at what is to come.
I have a childhood friend who has just had their flight brought forward by 3 hours so they can get into Orlando before the airport closes.... she is currently sat in a hotel room in the UK not knowing whether to get on a flight and arrive less than a day before Irma hits or cancel her holiday and not risk it.
Can anyone give me any advice to pass onto the guys out there/flying out please.

Any help or advice at all will be so greatly appreciated.

Unless she enjoys the idea of being in a hot, humid climate with potentially no electricity or water/food for her holiday, I would cancel it. Seriously. I understand the disappointment of having to cancel a vacation, but flying into Florida right now would be really foolish, in my opinion.

We love tourists....no tourists should be inbound until further notice.

[KWT]

Current forecast Probability of Hurricane Force winds:

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906279551118057472




John Morales‏Verified account @JohnMoralesNBC6 9m

With NHC's slight westward shift, the chance of hurricane conditions is highest in the #FLKeys & SW Florida.

Marathon 81%
Key West 64%
Naples 64%

Hard to believe that with a high end cat-4 in the general area Marathon isn't 100% really, I mean I doubt there is a single model now not showing hurricane conditions for them for a time. I suppose if there is a dramatic shift east or west then they may get lucky, but not looking likely at all.

[theavocado]

Sorry to quote myself but I didn't get a response. I know this board is fast moving and especially under these circumstances.
My friend who is due to fly out to Orlando is literally sat contemplating whether or not to get on her flight.... any help would be amazing.
Thank you

I've got friends worried about their loved ones on holiday in Orlando who have not been given a flight out. They have very young children and are in a pure state if panic at what is to come.
I have a childhood friend who has just had their flight brought forward by 3 hours so they can get into Orlando before the airport closes.... she is currently sat in a hotel room in the UK not knowing whether to get on a flight and arrive less than a day before Irma hits or cancel her holiday and not risk it.
Can anyone give me any advice to pass onto the guys out there/flying out please.

Any help or advice at all will be so greatly appreciated.

Unless she enjoys the idea of being in a hot, humid climate with potentially no electricity or water/food for her holiday, I would cancel it. Seriously. I understand the disappointment of having to cancel a vacation, but flying into Florida right now would be really foolish, in my opinion.

It would build character.

Child: "Mom I thought we were going to Disney?"
Mom: "Well, Junior, it turns out that Disney closed for the week because of the storm. But, since we already scheduled the flight and we have the means, we decided to come anyway and assist with clean up. Sometimes other people need our help more than we need to take a vacation."

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 082229
NOAA2 2311A IRMA HDOB 19 20170908
221930 2307N 07702W 6954 03041 9872 +117 +097 080089 090 062 007 00
222000 2305N 07702W 6962 03023 9862 +119 +101 082088 091 062 012 00
222030 2303N 07701W 6957 03022 9854 +115 //// 086086 090 064 015 01
222100 2301N 07701W 6965 03003 9843 +115 //// 091088 089 067 011 01
222130 2259N 07701W 6964 02997 9833 +118 //// 091089 090 069 011 01
222200 2257N 07701W 6971 02977 9824 +119 //// 088086 087 070 011 01
222230 2255N 07701W 6963 02982 9815 +119 +117 087087 088 070 011 00
222300 2253N 07701W 6960 02977 9807 +118 +115 087090 091 072 006 00
222330 2251N 07700W 6957 02970 9800 +115 +107 084091 092 075 005 00
222400 2249N 07700W 6951 02970 9792 +113 +107 081094 095 075 005 00
222430 2247N 07700W 6957 02949 9775 +117 +111 082098 101 074 005 00
222500 2245N 07700W 6957 02935 9753 +124 +101 082102 103 079 003 00
222530 2243N 07700W 6966 02912 9736 +127 +096 081107 107 081 004 00
222600 2241N 07659W 6963 02899 9722 +122 +100 081109 110 081 004 00
222630 2239N 07659W 6957 02886 9702 +118 +113 082114 116 085 010 00
222700 2237N 07659W 6962 02855 9673 +122 +120 083123 124 088 008 00
222730 2235N 07659W 6963 02831 9645 +128 +098 082128 131 091 007 00
222800 2234N 07659W 6961 02803 9617 +125 +103 080136 139 095 008 00
222830 2232N 07658W 6967 02765 9574 +132 +106 077137 138 098 014 00
222900 2230N 07658W 6951 02739 9526 +130 //// 076138 139 104 035 05

[Steve]

You see that little south bend upcoming in the Cuban coast. I think the storm will find its way into that little nook in the coastal waters, and from there launch itself toward the Fl coast.

What's cool is that the direction of spin (counterclockwise passing north) and the closeness to the island could actually pull it in. I don't expect that to happen, but it wouldn't be the first time.

[KBBOCA]

Rainfall forecast for FL & SE US...

 https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/906281086103244800




Eric Holthaus‏Verified account @EricHolthaus 16m16 minutes ago

Don't forget that in addition to the 150mph+ winds and 10-12 feet of storm surge, Irma will bring 1-2 feet of rain to most of Florida.

[stormreader]

Speaking personally, as a total amateur, I think my current highest concern (in terms of major metro areas) is somewhat less for Miami tonight and much higher for Tampa - St. Pete

With Miami in the spotlight for days they seemed to take preps very seriously. The FL West Coast *seems* to have been less of a focus earlier in the week - at least nationally - and so I fear folks in Tampa may not have prepared and now may be near the bullseye. Hope I'm very wrong, both about Tampa being lax in preps, and also it being in the bullseye.

Marco Island to Cape Coral/Ft. Meyers and then Gasparilla Sound-Charlotte Harbor and Sarasota Bay. Tampa too, but it's farther up the line. Someone mentioned earlier that even a weakened storm that was a Cat 5 will carry tremendous surge. We've see it before. So besides obviously the Keys, for everyone from Marco Island to Naples to Ft. Meyers and Cape Coral to Sanibel Island and Captiva to Port Charlotte to Venice to Sarasota/Bradenton/Longboat Key and finally St. Pete Beach and Clearwater, they have to know that water will come in close to the coast and into the bays, inlets and rivers. If you're low and in that area, I'd probably get out if the NHC maintains the SW FL hit.

Also, a slight west jog, saying bringing the storm right over Key West (hellacious--probably strengthening) then up into Ft Myers, would have to make surge at near Key Largo, and especially at Naples, very high.

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906281556536385537




John Morales‏Verified account @JohnMoralesNBC6 13m13 minutes ago

The risk of rain-induced flooding has risen from moderate to high for most of metro South Florida. 10 to 20 inches of rain.

[WeatherGuesser]

Personal opinion is that at least some people are being FAR too complacent.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 082235
AF308 2411A IRMA HDOB 13 20170908
221430 2555N 08252W 4097 07419 0405 -140 -279 043008 009 021 000 00
221500 2554N 08250W 4101 07412 0405 -141 -286 049009 009 018 000 00
221530 2552N 08247W 4100 07415 0407 -139 -303 044010 011 017 000 00
221600 2551N 08245W 4097 07422 0408 -140 -265 054009 010 018 000 00
221630 2550N 08242W 4098 07420 0408 -140 -213 060007 008 018 000 00
221700 2549N 08240W 4099 07418 0408 -141 -184 060009 010 018 000 00
221730 2547N 08237W 4099 07418 0409 -140 -181 060010 011 017 000 00
221800 2546N 08235W 4098 07423 0409 -140 -185 064012 014 015 000 00
221830 2545N 08232W 4098 07421 0409 -142 -268 064015 016 018 000 00
221900 2544N 08230W 4098 07420 0408 -141 -232 060015 016 018 000 00
221930 2543N 08227W 4101 07414 0407 -145 -258 056015 016 018 000 00
222000 2541N 08225W 4097 07422 0408 -145 -228 048015 016 018 000 00
222030 2540N 08222W 4101 07414 0407 -145 -237 042014 015 019 000 00
222100 2539N 08220W 4098 07421 0408 -145 -218 037015 015 018 000 00
222130 2538N 08217W 4097 07422 0408 -144 -206 041013 014 017 000 00
222200 2536N 08215W 4099 07417 0408 -141 -237 035014 015 017 000 00
222230 2535N 08212W 4098 07420 0408 -145 -202 039015 015 018 000 00
222300 2534N 08210W 4099 07417 0408 -144 -196 038015 016 018 000 00
222330 2533N 08207W 4099 07418 0408 -142 -188 040016 017 019 000 00
222400 2531N 08205W 4098 07421 0409 -145 -173 036018 018 018 000 00
$$

[KWT]

You see that little south bend upcoming in the Cuban coast. I think the storm will find its way into that little nook in the coastal waters, and from there launch itself toward the Fl coast.

What's cool is that the direction of spin (counterclockwise passing north) and the closeness to the island could actually pull it in. I don't expect that to happen, but it wouldn't be the first time.

Yeah, we don't often get the chance to see such a powerful hurricane interact with land in such a way and so I wouldn't rule what you are saying with regards to Irma feeling a tug that helps it to paralell Cuba, could go further west than expected if that were to happen, then perhaps a sharper right hook (may wobble east of north briefly) to make up the difference. Thats my gut.

Still, people need to listen to the NHC and stay safe.

[Blown Away]

Ed Rappaport (acting NHC director) just stated on NBC6 that the current slow down is the signal that the turn may be starting soon

Which turn?

Turn towards the Keys starts late tomorrow night...

[WeatherGuesser]

I've seen some discussion of people suggesting to drain a foot or so of water out of their pool to help prevent flooding from rains.

Have no idea where they got that from though.

[fci]

Irma continues to chug along at a decent clip, moving just slightly North of due West paralleling the north coast of Cuba. I have to say it looks more and more that Irma will avoid landfall of Cuba and it also looks like there are no indications of Irma slowing down yet to make that long-anticipated turn to the north. iIt ooks like it is going to probably get right at or just past 80 degrees longitude and if that happens, the Southwest coast of Florida is going to be the landfall point for Irma once the turn finally happens.

And this truly will be an epic disaster.

Seriously.

At this point both northjax's posit for the track or the NHC track will prove to be horrific for most of Florida east and west, especially the southern half. Florida's west coast has so many beaches that will get creamed when the winds shift northwest. Still hard to get my head around the potential size of this disaster. We're pulling for you guys! Stay safe.

What is incredible to me is that the 5 day forecast position (120H) on Tuesday's 5:00 AM Forecast Discussion was 24.0N and 81.0W and now the forecast position for 36H is 241N and 81.0W. Back on Tuesday the NHC forecast that far west was the outlier.

[CryHavoc]

Personal opinion is that at least some people are being FAR too complacent.

That is essentially inevitable with disasters.

[Michele B]

IF there's a silver lining in the change in the track is the fact that the actual spot of landfall (not the Keys, but Everglades City area, 10,000 Islands), is less populated than South Miami....so probable less loss of life.

I've been thinking about this too.
Certainly a direct hit on Everglades City seems much more "preferable" (better scenario) than hitting Miami.
Less of an economic impact for sure.

But I almost fear a higher death toll with a track up the center of the state which has a lot of mobile homes / modular houses...
Yes, vastly smaller population, but poorer, perhaps less able to evacuate, and less-sturdy houses...

I know.

There is no good solution to this horrible, horrible situation.

[KBBOCA]

Indeed.... I'm not sure the storm surge risk for SW FL is getting enough attention in media. Though I think from Emergency Officials it surely is. I know there are bunches of evac orders that have gone out today for areas of SW FL

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/906282875011690497




Mark Sudduth‏Verified account @hurricanetrack 10m10 minutes ago

I cannot emphasize enough that what I am seeing in the model guidance is suggesting a massive storm surge possible for Southwest Florida!

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 082236
AF308 2411A IRMA HDOB 14 20170908
222430 2530N 08202W 4097 07424 0409 -140 -198 033018 019 018 000 00
222500 2529N 08200W 4099 07417 0408 -141 -185 030017 018 019 000 00
222530 2528N 08158W 4099 07418 0407 -141 -172 029015 016 021 000 00
222600 2526N 08155W 4097 07421 0407 -140 -177 029015 016 022 000 00
222630 2525N 08153W 4098 07419 0407 -140 -174 041015 016 020 000 00
222700 2524N 08150W 4099 07415 0406 -139 -175 040015 016 021 000 00
222730 2523N 08148W 4100 07415 0406 -141 -176 040014 015 021 000 03
222800 2521N 08145W 4101 07412 0406 -140 -181 044014 015 021 000 00
222830 2520N 08143W 4099 07417 0407 -138 -223 041015 015 022 000 00
222900 2519N 08140W 4101 07413 0406 -140 -208 033015 015 022 000 00
222930 2518N 08138W 4099 07415 0406 -139 -217 027015 015 022 000 00
223000 2516N 08135W 4094 07424 0405 -137 -286 031013 016 022 000 00
223030 2515N 08133W 4098 07417 0404 -146 -252 045011 012 022 000 00
223100 2514N 08130W 4101 07411 0403 -144 -251 033011 012 022 000 00
223130 2513N 08128W 4097 07418 0403 -145 -323 036012 013 021 000 00
223200 2511N 08125W 4099 07411 0403 -144 -331 033013 013 022 000 00
223230 2510N 08123W 4099 07412 0403 -142 -341 027013 014 022 000 00
223300 2509N 08120W 4099 07413 0403 -140 -367 024014 014 022 000 00
223330 2508N 08118W 4098 07413 0403 -136 -376 027015 016 022 000 00
223400 2506N 08115W 4098 07413 0402 -140 -361 025015 016 023 000 00
$$
;

[Bolebuns]

Does anyone know if Jeff Piotrowski‏ is planning on doing another crazy in storm livecast? He should just bring Blue Shed Harvey with him for shelter.