ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images
and surface observations indicate that the system lacks a
well-defined circulation and surface pressures are not falling at
this time. Although this system could still become better organized
while approaching the Yucatan peninsula tonight and early Tuesday,
tropical cyclone formation is not expected until the disturbance
moves into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday where conditions are
favorable. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are likely to spread westward primarily across Belize
and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Not even a mention about a potential US impact? We're talking about a system making landfall on Friday, not something that's a week out.

[perk]

:uarrow:

Speaking from someone who went through Ike. it can stay away too...

Ike who.

[GCANE]

Strong injection of mid-level moisture into Harvey from the afternoon popups over Cuba.
Looks like a large area of overshooting tops are firing off as a result coupled with a cooling upper troposphere as sundown approaches.
Could start a warm core developing if continues to fire overnight.
If that is the case, will be watch DMAX if any hot-towers fire off to get this to start to spin up at low levels.

[wxman57]

A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images
and surface observations indicate that the system lacks a
well-defined circulation and surface pressures are not falling at
this time. Although this system could still become better organized
while approaching the Yucatan peninsula tonight and early Tuesday,
tropical cyclone formation is not expected until the disturbance
moves into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday where conditions are
favorable. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are likely to spread westward primarily across Belize
and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Not even a mention about a potential US impact? We're talking about a system making landfall on Friday, not something that's a week out.

Where are the PTC advisories? With a high chance of development within 48 hrs and proximity to land, the NHC should be issuing advisories on PTC Harvey.

[SoupBone]

:uarrow:

Speaking from someone who went through Ike. it can stay away too...

Ike who.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm thinking everyone has been distracted by the eclipse today . If model trends continue they will have to start getting the message out to the public somehow.

[SoupBone]

A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images
and surface observations indicate that the system lacks a
well-defined circulation and surface pressures are not falling at
this time. Although this system could still become better organized
while approaching the Yucatan peninsula tonight and early Tuesday,
tropical cyclone formation is not expected until the disturbance
moves into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday where conditions are
favorable. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are likely to spread westward primarily across Belize
and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Not even a mention about a potential US impact? We're talking about a system making landfall on Friday, not something that's a week out.

Where are the PTC advisories? With a high chance of development within 48 hrs and proximity to land, the NHC should be issuing advisories on PTC Harvey.

Seriously. This is very strange as it almost is like nothing is going on out there. Very strange.

[davidiowx]

My guess.. they either don't believe the models at all or are waiting for another run to see what it says before issuing anything. Kinda strange they didn't even mention it though.

[ROCK]

A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images
and surface observations indicate that the system lacks a
well-defined circulation and surface pressures are not falling at
this time. Although this system could still become better organized
while approaching the Yucatan peninsula tonight and early Tuesday,
tropical cyclone formation is not expected until the disturbance
moves into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday where conditions are
favorable. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are likely to spread westward primarily across Belize
and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Not even a mention about a potential US impact? We're talking about a system making landfall on Friday, not something that's a week out.

Where are the PTC advisories? With a high chance of development within 48 hrs and proximity to land, the NHC should be issuing advisories on PTC Harvey.

finally a voice of reason!! oh wait they are waiting for a pre long model consensus...

[AxaltaRacing24]

This is the most conservative I have seen the NHC/media about a potential TC landfall into the U.S. in a long time.

[Kingarabian]

Not even a mention about a potential US impact? We're talking about a system making landfall on Friday, not something that's a week out.

Where are the PTC advisories? With a high chance of development within 48 hrs and proximity to land, the NHC should be issuing advisories on PTC Harvey.

finally a voice of reason!! oh wait they are waiting for a pre long model consensus...

Thus far, the models have demonstrated that they're capable of making drastic changes 48-72 hours out. What I think they'll do, is wait for the next TWO. The 00z model suite generally will be complete and that will be enough to change the cone.

As for the PTC, I don't know why they haven't begun issuing advisories.

[Steve]

Latest convection, if it indicates where a center could consolidate, looks like it will brush the northern tip of the Yucatán. There is already decent upper support, but the ULL is in a very favorable position for pattern reversal in the western gulf over the next 3 days. Only negative is that it's still close. Assuming we get regeneration and assuming it stays NW of the "center", that will aid development until landfall even though that often happens on that side of the Gulf anyway.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-animated.gif

[Frank P]

Latest convection, if it indicates where a center could consolidate, looks like it will brush the northern tip of the Yucatán. There is already decent upper support, but the ULL is in a very favorable position for pattern reversal in the western gulf over the next 3 days. Assuming we get regeneration and assuming it stays NW of the "center", that will aid development until landfall even though that often happens on that side of the Gulf anyway.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-animated.gif

Well IF the center does consolidate more to the NW, and it brushes the northern tip of the Yucatán, wouldn't it be more in the Gulf than the BOC?

[ROCK]

Latest convection, if it indicates where a center could consolidate, looks like it will brush the northern tip of the Yucatán. There is already decent upper support, but the ULL is in a very favorable position for pattern reversal in the western gulf over the next 3 days. Assuming we get regeneration and assuming it stays NW of the "center", that will aid development until landfall even though that often happens on that side of the Gulf anyway.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-animated.gif

Well IF the center does consolidate more to the NW, and it brushes the northern tip of the Yucatán, wouldn't it be more in the Gulf than the BOC?

exactly!!

[Steve]

Yeah. That's southern gulf. But if it crosses and the northern tip of the Yucatán is to the NE at all, it would be BoC which is the Gulf anyway.

[TheStormExpert]

If overnight runs come in continuing to show a U.S. impact no later than Friday there is no reason for there not to be any Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories issued on Harvey by late tomorrow morning.

[ROCK]

Yeah. That's southern gulf. But if it crosses and the northern tip of the Yucatán is to the NE at all, it would be BoC which is the Gulf anyway.

which creeps up the cone even further north with LA not out of the realm. the evolution of that ULL is a big key...We know the NAM has a pretty deep trof coming down at 84hrs.

[Ptarmigan]

A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images
and surface observations indicate that the system lacks a
well-defined circulation and surface pressures are not falling at
this time. Although this system could still become better organized
while approaching the Yucatan peninsula tonight and early Tuesday,
tropical cyclone formation is not expected until the disturbance
moves into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday where conditions are
favorable. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are likely to spread westward primarily across Belize
and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Not even a mention about a potential US impact? We're talking about a system making landfall on Friday, not something that's a week out.

Where are the PTC advisories? With a high chance of development within 48 hrs and proximity to land, the NHC should be issuing advisories on PTC Harvey.

I am wondering about it too.

[Steve]

Yeah. That's southern gulf. But if it crosses and the northern tip of the Yucatán is to the NE at all, it would be BoC which is the Gulf anyway.

which creeps up the cone even further north with LA not out of the realm. the evolution of that ULL is a big key...We know the NAM has a pretty deep trof coming down at 84hrs.

Yeah. It's got to be transient. I'll have to start looking at upper runs tomorrow. I assumed Tamps or Vera Cruz, so I never much paid attention to what was happening in the NW Gulf and Texas or the southwest over the rest of the week. I was more looking at upper data off the East Coast.

[SunnyThoughts]

Surely they will issue PTC advisories by tomorrow morning. I mean that would be what...72 hrs from landfall. Perhaps that is what they are planning, and they are mainly watching to see where the center may form, so as to get the advisory location correct. Not sure they want to issue an advisory from tx/mx border all the way up through LA border or maybe even farther north than that. As of right now, landfall could be anywhere along that stretch. Guess we shall see by tomorrow.