ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Eye temp approaching WMG status.

[CrazyC83]

Eye temp approaching WMG status.

https://i.imgur.com/hwte7B6.jpg

That looks like T7.0 there, although I would wait for Recon to go that high.

[drezee]

I hope everyone is praying for the islands! We are witnessing 2004 Charlie without FL in the way. Cat 5 is coming. I wish recon was there. Send them early please

[1900hurricane]

The eye is getting very close to becoming warm medium grey (and might already be there based on GOES-16), and with a white CDO shade, that would be an instantaneous DT of 7.0. I'm not sure Maria is quite there yet, but the system is probably still amidst a phase of rapid intensification. Using KZC and 18Z data, 140 kt would yield a 927 mb pressure. KZC has been running pretty close the past two days, so it'll be interesting to see how it compares to recon data once we get a plane back in the storm.

[Hurrilurker]

Based on the clear eye and structure, I would go with 120 kt for the current intensity.

I'm thinking closer to 140kt.

I doubt they would go that high without Recon unless we get a surface pressure reading from Dominica that is below 930.

Last recon I see from just a few hours ago was 957mb so sub-930 at this time would be shocking. Eye has cleared out but it's still somewhat ragged. Then again with a little lag in readings, perhaps by the next time recon gets in there it could happen.

I really hope everyone on all the islands are paying attention. for the northern islands I fear many are still struggling with the basic necessities of life from Irma and many still don't have power.

[FLpanhandle91]

195 minute difference...

[OntarioEggplant]

I'm thinking closer to 140kt.

I doubt they would go that high without Recon unless we get a surface pressure reading from Dominica that is below 930.

Last recon I see from just a few hours ago was 957mb so sub-930 at this time would be shocking. Eye has cleared out but it's still somewhat ragged. Then again with a little lag in readings, perhaps by the next time recon gets in there it could happen.

I really hope everyone on all the islands are paying attention. for the northern islands I fear many are still struggling with the basic necessities of life from Irma and many still don't have power.

The eye is not ragged... Those are likely mesovortices in the eyewall

[Nimbus]

I doubt they would go that high without Recon unless we get a surface pressure reading from Dominica that is below 930.

Last recon I see from just a few hours ago was 957mb so sub-930 at this time would be shocking. Eye has cleared out but it's still somewhat ragged. Then again with a little lag in readings, perhaps by the next time recon gets in there it could happen.

I really hope everyone on all the islands are paying attention. for the northern islands I fear many are still struggling with the basic necessities of life from Irma and many still don't have power.

The eye is not ragged... Those are likely mesovortices in the eyewall

No place to hide from mesovortices on Domenica except poured concrete shelter or underground cave.

[NDG]

Zoomed in vis sat loop.

[OntarioEggplant]

Raw T# up to 6.9

Definitely wouldn't be surprised if this was cat 5 right now

[NotSparta]

Eye temp approaching WMG status.

Sorry, but what does WMG mean?

[SunnyThoughts]

We definitely need more recon...like now.

[tropicwatch]

Recon is scheduled to take off in about 45mins.
Back from central Florida yeah.

[1900hurricane]

Eye temp approaching WMG status.

[image removed]

Sorry, but what does WMG mean?

WMG, or warm medium grey, is the warmest color shade on the BD (basic Dvorak) enhanced infrared color curve.

[OntarioEggplant]

5pm advisory is unsurprisingly conservative at 130/cat4

[blazess556]

I know I shouldn't be surprised by the NHC but there is no way Maria has only strengthened 5 knots since the 2 p.m. advisory

[ronyan]

"Maria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye." -5PM discussion. Remind anyone of a discussion from another storm?

[RL3AO]

Maybe recon will go in and prove me wrong, but based on the evidence that is a very poor initial intensity from NHC. The pressure was rapidly dropping and the satellite appearance is closing in on category 5. I would have gone with 125 or 130 knots.

[CrazyC83]

I'm going to predict Recon will find a cat 5 when it comes back. We'll probably have a Special Advisory at 8 pm anyway.

[supercane4867]

Eye temp approaching WMG status.

[image removed]

Sorry, but what does WMG mean?

WMG, or warm medium grey, is the warmest color shade on the BD (basic Dvorak) enhanced infrared color curve.

And for anyone who's unfamiliar with Dvorak technique and its terminology, I recommend to take a look at this introduction of Dvorak technique on WMO website. It's pretty lengthy but contains a lot of detailed explanations.

http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCFW ... kBeven.pdf