ATL: IRMA - Models

[forecasterjack]

12Z EPS storm tracks have been added to weather.us, of course for free click the map to zoom in further or select tracks for different systems via the menus to the left. If you want to see tracks only out to a certain time, you can select the end time also using the menus. Enjoy!

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... -irma.html

[capepoint]

Has Savannah ever been hit wirh a 3 or 4?

[South Texas Storms]

12Z EPS storm tracks have been added to weather.us, of course for free click the map to zoom in further or select tracks for different systems via the menus to the left. If you want to see tracks only out to a certain time, you can select the end time also using the menus. Enjoy!

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... -irma.html

Thanks Jack! Great site

[newtotex]

As a whole, the 12Z Euro ensembles shifted a touch west through 5 days. Most are clustered on FL and the FL keys. Numerous ensemble members hit Cuba before heading into the SE Gulf.

Hope the talk this morning of the "eastward shift" hasn't put people at ease. Miami will be extremely lucky to have the eye miss by 25 miles. More likely it will be closer or make landfall.

According to some posters, some TV Mets and social media posters have used that as their validation for apathy earlier today.

Localized conditions can be sketchy on the global and even mesoscale models. But it's possible that a farther shift west toward the keys would cut back on the potential structural damage in Miami/Miami Beach. The Everglades and Big Cypress won't really knock anything back substantially, but every mile inland does absorb some of the energy. I'm not wishing or hoping for a track farther west, but a hit on the SW Tip of FL might be slightly better than a hit on the southern tip or over on the SE Coast as it relates to population centers and specifically Miami up to West Palm Beach. Cat 2/3 effects are generally preferable to Cat 4/5 where you jump from extensive to catastrophic structural damage. Consider that Florida is less than 100 miles across at Miami's latitude and roughly about 110 miles from Hollywood across to Naples. Depending on the size of the eye and inner core at landfall, at some point west things start improving for the SE FL Coast.

What's been concerning to me is intensification in the FL Straits. Many models have shown some of the lowest pressures in the 4 day period on approach to FL Landfall. How big and how wide the inner bands go will make a difference if it's deepening. Consider metro Miami has roughly 5 million people. Naples has probably 35,000 in that general area. Ft. Meyers/Cape Coral close to 300k and maybe 700-800k people up toward Sarasota which I think is a bit far north and west for landfall but is just being used for comparison purposes. There's a lot of high end real estate on both sides of the state, but there is substantially more on the SE Coast than the SW Coast.

One thing I haven't really seen talked about is the topography of southern Florida. Factor in the shallow water of the everglades and Lake Okeechobee and I don't think Irma will weaken the same way it would if it came ashore in a different location. Was it Andrew or Katrina that maintained strength or actually strengthened a little when it came inland?

[fci]

So this is going up the East Coast of FL then depending on when it turns north is what happens in GA/SC/NC. I am so confused on all of this, this is a very hard and complex track. It is almost better based on all the models whether inland or on the coast in all areas to just be prepared due to the size? Thoughts? I know this is model related but.....

I really don't understand the confusion. If you are in the cone you might get hit with a hurricane. Done, end of story. Forecasting Hurricane positions 5 days away doesn't happen, nor does it at 4 or 3 days. You should react if you are in the cone, or take a chance and not react but don't be surprised if you get hit.

What on earth is so confusing about that? You want exact answers, NO ONE can provide them. If you are in this thread because you think you can get better information than the NHC provides YOU ARE WRONG. Sorry for the dramatics, but I really don't understand the confusion. We like to observe model runs here, it's interesting to see the data the NHC has to work with. This thread is NOT to replace the NHC or their expert forecasting.

The only REAL source you need is -> http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

I go by what the NHC says. I read models and comments on S2K for supplemental information but rely on the NHC.
Problem is that I liked their forecast when it was to SW Florida, not so much with their forecast position and track being ONE MILE from me on the 11:00 AM
Hope that the trend to the East that looked apparent this morning and was debunked by the EURO resumes and the 5:00 shows Irma further than 1 mile from me....

[HURRICANELONNY]

Lets hope no up the spine. I hope future runs go EAST.

[MatthewsRevenge]

One more look at the 12z Euro, simulated radar loop.

Look how close it is.

[chris_fit]

Euro 12z Ensembles... can't even see FL

[MatthewsRevenge]

Hope the talk this morning of the "eastward shift" hasn't put people at ease. Miami will be extremely lucky to have the eye miss by 25 miles. More likely it will be closer or make landfall.

According to some posters, some TV Mets and social media posters have used that as their validation for apathy earlier today.

Localized conditions can be sketchy on the global and even mesoscale models. But it's possible that a farther shift west toward the keys would cut back on the potential structural damage in Miami/Miami Beach. The Everglades and Big Cypress won't really knock anything back substantially, but every mile inland does absorb some of the energy. I'm not wishing or hoping for a track farther west, but a hit on the SW Tip of FL might be slightly better than a hit on the southern tip or over on the SE Coast as it relates to population centers and specifically Miami up to West Palm Beach. Cat 2/3 effects are generally preferable to Cat 4/5 where you jump from extensive to catastrophic structural damage. Consider that Florida is less than 100 miles across at Miami's latitude and roughly about 110 miles from Hollywood across to Naples. Depending on the size of the eye and inner core at landfall, at some point west things start improving for the SE FL Coast.

What's been concerning to me is intensification in the FL Straits. Many models have shown some of the lowest pressures in the 4 day period on approach to FL Landfall. How big and how wide the inner bands go will make a difference if it's deepening. Consider metro Miami has roughly 5 million people. Naples has probably 35,000 in that general area. Ft. Meyers/Cape Coral close to 300k and maybe 700-800k people up toward Sarasota which I think is a bit far north and west for landfall but is just being used for comparison purposes. There's a lot of high end real estate on both sides of the state, but there is substantially more on the SE Coast than the SW Coast.

One thing I haven't really seen talked about is the topography of southern Florida. Factor in the shallow water of the everglades and Lake Okeechobee and I don't think Irma will weaken the same way it would if it came ashore in a different location. Was it Andrew or Katrina that maintained strength or actually strengthened a little when it came inland?

Katrina.

[ftolmsteen]

Do we prefer to see Irma to speed up or slow down in forward speed to see Irma exit east of state?

[NDG]

Do we prefer to see Irma to speed up or slow down in forward speed to see Irma exit east of state?

Slow down.

[ronjon]

I don't like that spread in the EC ensembles - would like that envelope to be more narrow at day 4

[Canelaw99]

I wish you guys well in Homestead. Kinda seeming like ground zero or very close to it based on the 12Z model aggregate. Hang in there!

As a Homestead resident, I am not happy about the model trend/consensus this afternoon. Potentially scary days ahead.

[ronjon]

Do we prefer to see Irma to speed up or slow down in forward speed to see Irma exit east of state?

Slow down.

i think the forward speed (say near 15 mph) is pretty set the next 3 days - shes super strong and bumping up against a strong ridge. That's usually a prescription for fast relatively constant forward speed.

[Steve H.]

Well, IRMA is progged to go over some very flat, wet land as it goes inland up the east coast, and maybe over Lake Okeechobee. This is where Ilene came through in the late 90's and she actually strengthened over land from a TS to a Cat 1. I am concerned that Irma will be over extremely warm waters prior to landfall and shear will be limited by her sheer girth and strength. Some of the global models may be underestimating her strength (and pressure) when she enters the Florida straits.

[forecasterjack]

ECMWF simulated IR satellite shows the core of Irma moving directly over Miami on Sunday. Of course it's available for free at weather.us https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/72 ... 2100z.html as always you can click the map to zoom in and use the menus to the left to change to different parameters. Enjoy!

[robbielyn]

I live in Hernando county 40 mi nw of Tampa. if current nhc or euro track verifies, what conditions wind wise would we get over here and how many inches of rain? I haven't been able to watch bay news 9 to find out. I love that channel. bucman? or Ronjon?

[SouthFloridawx]

With all these systems going on Katia, Irma, Jose, fronts and shortwaves... what a complicated situation for the models to handle accurately.

[forecasterjack]

I live in Hernando county 40 mi nw of Tampa. if current nhc or euro track verifies, what conditions wind wise would we get over here and how many inches of rain? I haven't been able to watch bay news 9 to find out. I love that channel. bucman? or Ronjon?

Go to this website: https://weather.us/forecast/xl and type in the name of your town. You'll be able to see forecast wind speeds, rainfall amounts, and lots of other stuff from all the models so you can compare easily.

[BucMan2]

Robbielyn- Assuming the path stays the same as of today, my thinking would be that we would get at most some squally weather
from the outer bands with winds 20-25 mph. Of course ant deviation west could change that in a heartbeat. But that is the way I see at
this moment. Of course that is my opinion, but as always check with your local weather service for updated info