ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

That intense ring of convection around the eye is scary to see...it's like looking at Sauron's Eye in the Lord of the Rings.

[stormreader]

Scope of evacuations in SW FL has really increased:

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/906302889198604288




Dr. Rick Knabb‏Verified account @DrRickKnabb 3m3 minutes ago

Evacuations also ordered for #Irma storm surge watch/warning areas on FL Gulf coast from @CCOEM @SRQCountyGov @ManateeGov @PinellasEM

Again, credit to TWC for keeping the SW Fl coast honest about this system. Have watched TWC more in last two days than in previous years. They have tried.

[Exalt]

Solid white ring again, and some CMG starting to appear. Dvorak estimates should be way up.

Wouldn't be surprised for a re-upgrade to Cat 5.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 082349
NOAA2 2311A IRMA HDOB 27 20170908
233930 2213N 07704W 7522 01854 9272 +201 +198 134045 046 037 002 00
234000 2214N 07707W 7512 01857 9265 +199 +192 126042 045 035 003 03
234030 2215N 07709W 7507 01859 9257 +207 +163 106037 038 028 002 03
234100 2216N 07711W 7509 01859 9262 +205 +165 086040 042 032 000 03
234130 2218N 07712W 7509 01869 9275 +197 +178 082047 050 036 002 00
234200 2220N 07713W 7526 01864 9294 +193 +184 078065 068 050 003 00
234230 2222N 07714W 7522 01881 9310 +190 +188 072072 074 065 008 00
234300 2223N 07715W 7576 01845 9338 +187 +177 070090 094 114 002 00
234330 2225N 07716W 7673 01763 9379 +190 +173 083115 132 128 003 03
234400 2227N 07717W 7691 01815 9466 +161 //// 079153 159 136 054 01
234430 2229N 07719W 7579 01994 9527 +151 //// 073146 152 131 053 05
234500 2231N 07720W 7617 02005 9589 +147 //// 073148 151 116 044 01
234530 2232N 07721W 7591 02071 9631 +147 //// 074139 141 101 029 01
234600 2234N 07722W 7544 02153 9656 +149 //// 075131 134 095 011 01
234630 2236N 07723W 7526 02205 9690 +149 +146 076124 125 094 005 00
234700 2238N 07724W 7528 02224 9712 +156 +132 077118 120 087 006 00
234730 2239N 07725W 7521 02252 9732 +154 +138 076112 114 082 007 00
234800 2241N 07726W 7516 02274 9756 +149 +147 075105 109 077 010 00
234830 2243N 07727W 7523 02285 9768 +156 +154 072101 101 076 009 00
234900 2245N 07728W 7525 02295 9783 +157 +150 073098 099 073 007 00

Well, look whos a cat5 again!

[BYG Jacob]

People are saying we are in the clear on the east coast honestly that's just crazy talk

IT is looking much better in terms of no eyewall. but until its turns we still wont know..

Regardless of where she makes landfall, she's going to impact the entire state in some way.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon is just about to get the next center fix any minute now. Weird...they went around it for some reason but measured a 156 mph surface wind

[stormreader]

That intense ring of convection around the eye is scary to see...it's like looking at Sauron's Eye in the Lord of the Rings.

Second recent literary reference.

[MGC]

Solid do-nut of red surrounding the eye....looks better organized. Hope the NHC is wrong and Cuba disrupts the circulation a bit.....MGC

[galaxy401]

It appears Irma is a very nearly a cat 5 again.

[Aric Dunn]

They missed the center by quite a bit. but .. oh boy look at the wind increase already

234400 2227N 07717W 7691 01815 9466 +161 //// 079153 159 136 054 01
234430 2229N 07719W 7579 01994 9527 +151 //// 073146 152 131 053 05
234500 2231N 07720W 7617 02005 9589 +147 //// 073148 151 116 044 01
234530 2232N 07721W 7591 02071 9631 +147 //// 074139 141 101 029 01

[Exalt]

They missed the center by quite a bit. but .. oh boy look at the wind increase already

234400 2227N 07717W 7691 01815 9466 +161 //// 079153 159 136 054 01
234430 2229N 07719W 7579 01994 9527 +151 //// 073146 152 131 053 05
234500 2231N 07720W 7617 02005 9589 +147 //// 073148 151 116 044 01
234530 2232N 07721W 7591 02071 9631 +147 //// 074139 141 101 029 01

Cat 5.

Also, that eye is terrifyingly big.

[Aric Dunn]

925 mb with 38 kts of wind. probably around 920 now.

[Shell Mound]

Strongest landfalling hurricanes in Cuba, 1851—present

1. 1924 – 145 knots (165 mph)
2. 2008 (Gustav) – 135 knots (155 mph)
3. 1910 – 130 knots (150 mph)
4. 1917 – 130 knots (150 mph)
5. 1926 – 130 knots (150 mph)
6. 1932 – 130 knots (150 mph)

If it makes landfall on the north coast of Cuba, Irma will be in second place or perhaps tied for first...

[KWT]

They missed the center by quite a bit. but .. oh boy look at the wind increase already

234400 2227N 07717W 7691 01815 9466 +161 //// 079153 159 136 054 01
234430 2229N 07719W 7579 01994 9527 +151 //// 073146 152 131 053 05
234500 2231N 07720W 7617 02005 9589 +147 //// 073148 151 116 044 01
234530 2232N 07721W 7591 02071 9631 +147 //// 074139 141 101 029 01

Flight level winds are shooting through the roof again, I wouldn't be surprised if as soon as they are transported to the lower levels this gets re-upgraded and there could quite well be 140kts in there already.

[Extratropical94]

AF plane is confirming the high FL winds in the NW part. And they are still a couple of minutes away from the eye.

234330 2234N 07720W 6983 02773 9672 +087 +087 076137 140 098 028 00
234400 2232N 07720W 6962 02774 9652 +088 +088 074144 146 101 033 00

[CrazyC83]

They missed the center by quite a bit. but .. oh boy look at the wind increase already

234400 2227N 07717W 7691 01815 9466 +161 //// 079153 159 136 054 01
234430 2229N 07719W 7579 01994 9527 +151 //// 073146 152 131 053 05
234500 2231N 07720W 7617 02005 9589 +147 //// 073148 151 116 044 01
234530 2232N 07721W 7591 02071 9631 +147 //// 074139 141 101 029 01

Cat 5.

Also, that eye is terrifyingly big.

Agreed, I would say 140 kt. Also the pressure is probably 921 based on that dropsonde.

[tailgater]

Eyewall getting mighty close to the north coast of Cuba now on the Cuban radar. with such a large eye those islands on the northern side of the system probably aren't going to do anything to Irma.

That's what I be seeing, 1/3 of the eyewall is on the coast now and still seems to be heading closer to west than wnw. Good for us bad for Cuba

[cjrciadt]

Remember it has over 36 hrs till US landfall!! Unless it goes even more west, then it could have 2 plus more hours before FL impact!?!

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, those readings indicate Irma is back at Cat 5 intensity. She is intensifying again.

[CrazyC83]

Strongest landfalling hurricanes in Cuba, 1851—present

1. 1924 – 145 knots (165 mph)
2. 1910 – 130 knots (150 mph)
3. 1917 – 130 knots (150 mph)
4. 1926 – 130 knots (150 mph)
5. 1932 – 130 knots (150 mph)
6. 2008 (Gustav) – 130 knots (150 mph)

If it makes landfall on the north coast of Cuba, Irma will be in second place or perhaps tied for first...

Gustav was 135 kt when it hit Cuba.