ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

well it needs to start turning back wnw to stay off shore. another couple hours of this and it will be onshore.

So far is doing what the 12z Euro forecasted for it to make landfall on those Cays in northern Central Cuban, then turn more WNW and ride along the coast with at least half of its circulation inland, it forecasted it to go completely offshore tomorrow night around 7PM-10PM.
It shows it be back over water for 14 hrs or so before making a final landfall near Everglades City, its pressure dropping 24 mb after entering the FL Straights.

Maybe it's just the eye contracting, but it looks to take a hard SW wobble on the slider. But the slider is jumping all over the place on my computer.

[norva]

Like others said, landfall in Cuba will put a cap on strengthening. We will see if it gets some of that strength back once in goes back over water

And get right back to powering up in the straits. It'll be almost certainly a 5 at the Keys...

[Blinhart]

Like others said, landfall in Cuba will put a cap on strengthening. We will see if it gets some of that strength back once in goes back over water

She would have to have her complete eye inside of Cuba for it to be capped off.

[Hurricane_Apu]

Like others said, landfall in Cuba will put a cap on strengthening. We will see if it gets some of that strength back once in goes back over water

She would have to have her complete eye inside of Cuba for it to be capped off.

if this due west turn is for real, that will happen very quickly.

[Aric Dunn]

This whole lag with the recon today is no fun...

[PTPatrick]

It is amazing how quick the Cuba interaction Knocked the eye wall back yet again...just when she was finally back on her eye wall game, here comes Cuba. Now how much that actually effects strength remains I be seen.

[PandaCitrus]

The water along those cayes are 90 degrees. It is providing rocket fuel to Irma. It's also swampy and marshy like the everglades. Mountains having zero impact. This will maintain or increase. I agree with the NHC.

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/906328867513577472




Philip Klotzbach‏Verified account @philklotzbach 3m3 minutes ago

#Irma is making landfall in Cuba-6th Cat 4 hurricane to make landfall in Cuba since 2000. Others were Michelle, Dennis, Gustav, Ike, Matthew

[Aric Dunn]

look at that NE eyewall on radar now... recon about to do a pass through it .. should be pretty intense !
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/906329370964447232




John Morales‏Verified account @JohnMoralesNBC6 3m3 minutes ago

Wind and surge risk remains extreme for all of South Florida, while threat of inland flooding & tornadoes has increased to high and moderate

[ConvergenceZone]

Like others said, landfall in Cuba will put a cap on strengthening. We will see if it gets some of that strength back once in goes back over water

And get right back to powering up in the straits. It'll be almost certainly a 5 at the Keys...

Not necessarily, it depends how much Cuba takes out of it and how long it stays over Cuba.

[BYG Jacob]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/906328867513577472




Philip Klotzbach‏Verified account @philklotzbach 3m3 minutes ago

#Irma is making landfall in Cuba-6th Cat 4 hurricane to make landfall in Cuba since 2000. Others were Michelle, Dennis, Gustav, Ike, Matthew

Irma is a cat 5

[jlauderdal]

TWC forecasting 100mph gusts between Sun AM through PM in Ft Lauderdale.

I give that 20 percent chance

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Getting very interesting now, those huge super cells going off can nudge the eye path around
causing wobbles that no modelling can foresee or resolve.

[meriland29]

Like others said, landfall in Cuba will put a cap on strengthening. We will see if it gets some of that strength back once in goes back over water

And get right back to powering up in the straits. It'll be almost certainly a 5 at the Keys...

Not necessarily, it depends how much Cuba takes out of it and how long it stays over Cuba.

That's why looking at the DVORAK models whilst on Cuba can be useful..

[tolakram]

[tw et]https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/906328867513577472[/tweet]

Philip Klotzbach‏Verified account @philklotzbach 3m3 minutes ago

#Irma is making landfall in Cuba-6th Cat 4 hurricane to make landfall in Cuba since 2000. Others were Michelle, Dennis, Gustav, Ike, Matthew

Irma is a cat 5

4 @ 155mph officially

[JaxGator]

Look at Irma. WOW! She is intensifying rapidly. What a historic storm!! I have run out of superlatives for this monster!

Yeah, she's really taking off now. Once the new eyewall took over, bam. Might be a glancing blow to Cuba or its barrier Islands near Irma's center, until it makes the turn or starts to we'll know. Btw, the NWS of both Jax and Melbourne still forecast hurricane conditions for North and Central Florida for now and guessing that Irma is a Cat 5 now, maybe thw winds might be greater depending on any shifts... Still though, the Keys and South Florida are just going to get hammered, but thankfully my relatives that live in the Keys got out yesterday.

You cannot lump central Florida in with north Florida as Irma is expected to rapidly weaken. at present time north Florida is projected to experience at most CAT 1

Yes I know, sorry that wasn't my intent, but both are different All of the peninsula is forcasted to be experience hurricane force winds or gusts, but still, I didn't make both office's one and the same. That's still bad for our area and we would be on the dirty side with heavy rain of 8-10 inches and tornadoes

[jlauderdal]

Anyone know if the Cuban government engaged their citizens about a potential landfall? I sure hope so.

Cuba is one of the most TC-ready nations in the world... all the coastal areas are likely already evacuated.

They load everyone up on busses...mandatory means mandatory in cuba

[otowntiger]

Could someone please post a saved recent Cuban radar loop? Thanks

Does look to be wobbling aw right on to shore. Could have huge implications down the line for strength and track.

[dukeblue219]

#Irma is making landfall in Cuba-6th Cat 4 hurricane to make landfall in Cuba since 2000. Others were Michelle, Dennis, Gustav, Ike, Matthew

Irma is a cat 5

Well, the last official NHC advisory is the 8pm with 155mph winds, so while it strengthened after that advisory, that's still the last official number for now. It'll probably get adjusted after the fact, though.