ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

Mark Sudduth video on potential storm surge impact:

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/906332737325424641




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Luz-X7Yiy8

[Aric Dunn]

it has slowed down a good bit the last 4 hours or so.. that was not antcipated..

What are the track implications of any slowdown at this stage?

well slow movement would mean more east generally.

[tailgater]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/906328867513577472




Philip Klotzbach‏Verified account @philklotzbach 3m3 minutes ago

#Irma is making landfall in Cuba-6th Cat 4 hurricane to make landfall in Cuba since 2000. Others were Michelle, Dennis, Gustav, Ike, Matthew

Irma is a cat 5

Wow look at eye contracting fast.

[gatorcane]

it has slowed down a good bit the last 4 hours or so.. that was not antcipated..

it did not move very much this last hour

Agreed Aric. This is getting rather interesting. Interaction with a landmass such as Cuba with mountains can create erratic wobbles and movements.

[Aric Dunn]

The circulation is being caught up on the terrain to the southeast. my belief is, thats what is causing it to pull towards the coast. seen it happen before. Im guessing in about 2-3 hours it resumes its modeled course.

could very well be that as well. hard to tell.

[BYG Jacob]

I don't see Irma weakening all, considering the majority of her core is offshore, and there's nothing to disrupt her core on that part of Cuba.

[BYG Jacob]

it has slowed down a good bit the last 4 hours or so.. that was not antcipated..

it did not move very much this last hour

Agreed Aric. This is getting rather interesting. Interaction with a landmass such as Cuba with mountains can create erratic wobbles and movements.

There aren't any mountains in the area where she made landfall.

[Blinhart]

Why aren't the meteorologists on the TWC also saying anything about the waves that will be crashing on top of the Storm Surge. If a place like Ft. Lauderdale is suppose to have a 10 foot storm surge, and some models are showing up to 40 foot waves they could say that to expect up to at minimum 20 foot waves. That way people that are staying on A1A but in 2nd or 3rd floor apartments might know that they could have waves crashing through their windows. They need to just mention that there will be waves on top of the Surge.

I'm not bashing them, I am just asking why they aren't mentioning the waves??? They are actually doing the best they can do with a situation is very fluid as it goes and is unprecedented in what could possibly be the worse natural disaster in the US history.

[gatorcane]

Here comes the trough over Nebraska to erode the ridge. It is closing in quickly.

[Aric Dunn]

it has slowed down a good bit the last 4 hours or so.. that was not antcipated..

it did not move very much this last hour

Agreed Aric. This is getting rather interesting. Interaction with a landmass such as Cuba with mountains can create erratic wobbles and movements.

There aren't any mountains in the area where she made landfall.

anything other than ocean increases friction quite a bit. does not need to be high terrain .

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/hwind/status/906334060896768001

[NDG]

Wow, a dewpoint of 81 deg F in Key West this evening. Nothing but fuel for Irma.

METAR for: KEYW (Key West Intl, FL, US)
Text: KEYW 090053Z 01012G19KT 10SM SCT041 BKN055 31/27 A2977 RMK AO2 RAE2359B16E21B43E53 SLP081 P0000 T03060272
Temperature: 30.6°C ( 87°F)
Dewpoint: 27.2°C ( 81°F) [RH = 82%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.77 inches Hg (1008.2 mb) [Sea level pressure: 1008.1 mb]
Winds: from the N (10 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 knots; 6.2 m/s) gusting to 22 MPH (19 knots; 9.8 m/s)
Visibility: 10 or more sm (16+ km)
Ceiling: 5500 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 4100 feet AGL, broken clouds at 5500 feet AGL

[SoupBone]

it has slowed down a good bit the last 4 hours or so.. that was not antcipated..

it did not move very much this last hour

Agreed Aric. This is getting rather interesting. Interaction with a landmass such as Cuba with mountains can create erratic wobbles and movements.

There aren't any mountains in the area where she made landfall.

Land friction by itself can disrupt the system. It's not like plowing into a land locked landmass that doesn't allow it to draw moisture, but it's enough to cause some decay for sure.

[meriland29]

Unless more than half of her eye comes ashore Cuba, I have a hard time seeing her intense strengthening being shadowed by some flatter, marshy type of land. Of course, I don't know for sure and am not a Meteorologist, so do not take what I say to heart..this is just a thought...

[Aric Dunn]

Seriously the eye on IR has shrunk by nearly half in the last 2 hours..

[meriland29]

Seriously the eye on IR has shrunk by nearly half in the last 2 hours..

Shrunk, hmm. Does that mean she is tightly wound (stronger)?

[TheStormExpert]

Steve Weagle and James Weiland on WPTV News Channel 5 showing that the 00z model track guidance has spread out some and they are optimistic about potential track and it shifting around some until it makes the north turn.

[nutkin517]

Why aren't the meteorologists on the TWC also saying anything about the waves that will be crashing on top of the Storm Surge. If a place like Ft. Lauderdale is suppose to have a 10 foot storm surge, and some models are showing up to 40 foot waves they could say that to expect up to at minimum 20 foot waves. That way people that are staying on A1A but in 2nd or 3rd floor apartments might know that they could have waves crashing through their windows. They need to just mention that there will be waves on top of the Surge.

I'm not bashing them, I am just asking why they aren't mentioning the waves??? They are actually doing the best they can do with a situation is very fluid as it goes and is unprecedented in what could possibly be the worse natural disaster in the US history.

They are saying it on CNN. They've mentioned it several times.

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/906335484951121921




Eric Holthaus‏Verified account @EricHolthaus 2m2 minutes ago

On a track like this up the west coast of Florida, there's a chance Irma could remain a Category 3+ all the way up to Tampa.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/hwind/status/906334060896768001

Any population centers being hit?