ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[Hammy]

Latest advisory.

10:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 8
Location: 20.3°N 91.3°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

I was thinking there was no way this could increase 35mph in 24 hours, now I'm thinking it could go higher.

[cycloneye]

...FRANKLIN STRENGTHENING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF
VERACRUZ...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 91.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017

The center of Franklin moved off the western coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula soon after 2100 UTC, and Air Force Reserve and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft arrived not too long after that to begin
sampling the cyclone's circulation. The planes have observed
increasing deep convection, and the NOAA aircraft measured a peak
700-mb flight-level wind of 52 kt within the convection east of the
center. The SFMR instruments have measured surface winds higher
than 50 kt, but these values were either rain flagged or likely
influenced by shoaling effects in the shallow shelf waters off the
Yucatan coast. Accounting for these considerations, Franklin's
initial intensity is raised to 45 kt. The Air Force plane also
reported that the central pressure has fallen to 996 mb.

Franklin is moving west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, and mid-level
ridging located over the northern Gulf of Mexico should force the
cyclone to turn westward by Wednesday morning. The track guidance
suggests that a south-of-due-west motion is possible after 24 hours
as Franklin's circulation interacts with the mountainous terrain of
Mexico, and the cyclone's center is expected to cross the coast
Wednesday night or early Thursday. The new NHC track forecast is a
little south of the previous forecast, accounting for the southward
bend noted in the track models.

The waters of the Bay of Campeche are around 30 deg C and by
themselves should support further intensification. One inhibiting
factor for strengthening could be a gradual increase in northerly
shear over the system up until landfall, yet many of the intensity
models show Franklin intensifying in spite of the shear. In fact,
the regional hurricane models depict Franklin reaching an intensity
of 70-75 kt in 24 hours. Given that the storm is already producing
45-kt winds after just moving offshore, the NHC forecast lies closer
to the more aggressive models and shows Franklin reaching hurricane
intensity in about 24 hours. Regardless, there is an increasing
likelihood that Franklin will be able to reach hurricane strength
before landfall, and accordingly, the government of Mexico has
issued a Hurricane Warning for portions of the state of Veracruz.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 20.3N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 20.4N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 20.4N 95.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 20.0N 97.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0000Z 19.5N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[txwatcher91]

There is near 90 degree water ahead, excellent outflow channels, a strong convective burst ongoing, and about 30 hours till landfall. I see no reason this can’t reach a cat 2 if the northerly shear and dry air doesn’t impact it.

[Exalt]

This looks stunning for a post-landfall cyclone, I could see it being a hurricane by tomorrow morning.

[Alyono]

There is not near 90 degree water ahead, excellent outflow channels, a strong convective burst ongoing, and about 30 hours till landfall. I see no reason this can’t reach a cat 2 if the northerly shear and dry air doesn’t impact it.

could go even higher than cat 2. Cat 3 would not surprise me at all

[Exalt]

There is not near 90 degree water ahead, excellent outflow channels, a strong convective burst ongoing, and about 30 hours till landfall. I see no reason this can’t reach a cat 2 if the northerly shear and dry air doesn’t impact it.

could go even higher than cat 2. Cat 3 would not surprise me at all

Texas is really lucky Franklin didn't decide to take a longer, northern course.

[txwatcher91]

There is not near 90 degree water ahead, excellent outflow channels, a strong convective burst ongoing, and about 30 hours till landfall. I see no reason this can’t reach a cat 2 if the northerly shear and dry air doesn’t impact it.

could go even higher than cat 2. Cat 3 would not surprise me at all

It wouldn’t surprise me either. It’s already lower than the HMON had it at, well ahead of schedule. The strong convective burst is impressive too.

[Sciencerocks]

There is near 90 degree water ahead, excellent outflow channels, a strong convective burst ongoing, and about 30 hours till landfall. I see no reason this can’t reach a cat 2 if the northerly shear and dry air doesn’t impact it.

Exactly how I feel about Franklins future. The outflow channels show that this thing means business.

[Alyono]

reading some of the Karl advisories, NHC was forecasting a cat 1 into Tuxpan. Instead, it was a cat 3 that narrowly missed Veracruz

Hope this does not do the same as Veracruz is heavily populated

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 090300
NOAA2 0207A FRANKLIN HDOB 30 20170809
025100 2325N 08954W 4452 06838 0417 -083 -169 112036 036 026 001 00
025130 2328N 08953W 4450 06842 0418 -083 -160 113035 036 027 001 00
025200 2331N 08952W 4451 06841 0418 -077 -146 111032 034 024 001 00
025230 2333N 08951W 4450 06843 0418 -077 -154 110029 029 025 001 00
025300 2336N 08950W 4451 06841 0418 -077 -152 110030 030 026 001 00
025330 2339N 08950W 4450 06842 0418 -076 -155 106032 032 026 001 00
025400 2341N 08949W 4451 06842 0419 -077 -152 106032 033 024 002 00
025430 2344N 08948W 4452 06843 0421 -079 -138 104034 035 022 002 00
025500 2346N 08946W 4451 06845 0422 -078 -149 108036 038 028 002 03
025530 2347N 08943W 4452 06843 0421 -076 -152 108032 033 029 001 00
025600 2348N 08941W 4452 06844 0422 -077 -161 105031 031 030 001 00
025630 2349N 08939W 4452 06844 0421 -081 -168 110031 032 027 001 00
025700 2350N 08936W 4453 06842 0421 -082 -138 111030 031 026 001 00
025730 2352N 08934W 4449 06846 0420 -080 -155 108031 031 024 001 00
025800 2353N 08931W 4452 06843 0421 -081 -152 104027 030 024 001 00
025830 2354N 08929W 4451 06844 0422 -078 -150 091022 024 026 001 00
025900 2355N 08926W 4448 06846 0419 -077 -174 086027 029 024 001 00
025930 2356N 08924W 4451 06843 0420 -081 -186 086026 027 021 002 00
030000 2357N 08921W 4451 06843 0421 -082 -171 082021 022 026 001 00
030030 2359N 08919W 4450 06845 0421 -080 -186 077020 020 023 002 00

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090304
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 42 20170809
025400 1919N 09226W 6965 03159 0060 +095 +000 317022 025 025 002 00
025430 1920N 09225W 6965 03160 0061 +094 +000 315020 021 028 001 00
025500 1921N 09224W 6966 03158 0058 +095 +002 313020 020 029 002 00
025530 1923N 09222W 6970 03154 0075 +084 +004 311021 023 029 003 00
025600 1924N 09221W 6966 03157 0084 +074 +004 311022 023 032 005 00
025630 1925N 09220W 6966 03157 0062 +092 +001 324018 020 033 002 00
025700 1926N 09219W 6967 03154 0060 +093 -001 327019 020 032 001 00
025730 1928N 09217W 6967 03152 0055 +095 -000 330020 020 028 000 00
025800 1929N 09216W 6967 03152 0056 +095 +002 331021 022 028 001 00
025830 1930N 09215W 6966 03153 0051 +096 +006 331020 022 029 000 00
025900 1931N 09214W 6966 03150 0048 +099 +010 332019 020 028 000 00
025930 1932N 09212W 6967 03149 0045 +099 +013 329017 019 028 000 00
030000 1934N 09211W 6968 03147 0045 +099 +016 328018 019 026 001 00
030030 1935N 09210W 6967 03147 0043 +097 +019 330019 020 025 000 00
030100 1936N 09208W 6967 03146 0042 +098 +021 326018 019 026 002 00
030130 1937N 09207W 6966 03147 0040 +099 +023 328019 019 029 004 00
030200 1938N 09206W 6964 03148 0039 +100 +024 325016 019 029 005 00
030230 1940N 09205W 6970 03140 0037 +100 +026 321016 016 026 001 00
030300 1941N 09203W 6965 03146 0039 +098 +027 322014 015 025 000 00
030330 1942N 09202W 6966 03143 0036 +099 +028 318012 013 028 001 00
$$

[hurricanehunter69]

There are several things I really like about this storms future. 1st...The BOC Effect! 2nd.... This is a very well developed tropical cyclone, 3rd Franklin is in a very conducive environment( I'll believe the shear forecast (verify) when I see it). The NHC dose not have the luxury of being as aggressive as we can be, but I bet many of them would bet major. My bet is definitely on major Hurricane!

[galaxy401]

reading some of the Karl advisories, NHC was forecasting a cat 1 into Tuxpan. Instead, it was a cat 3 that narrowly missed Veracruz

Hope this does not do the same as Veracruz is heavily populated

Yeah this storm seems eerily familiar with Karl in 2010. Certainly not wasting any time now that it's back over hot waters.

[MississippiWx]

Convective development currently is explosive. It's pretty amazing to watch it on the new GOES satellite. It will be interesting to see if the plane picks up on any pressure falls the next pass.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 090310
NOAA2 0207A FRANKLIN HDOB 31 20170809
030100 2400N 08916W 4452 06842 0421 -079 -181 094020 020 023 001 00
030130 2401N 08914W 4451 06844 0420 -075 -207 103022 023 025 001 00
030200 2402N 08911W 4450 06844 0420 -077 -247 104024 025 023 001 00
030230 2403N 08908W 4452 06842 0420 -080 -221 105024 025 023 001 00
030300 2405N 08906W 4449 06845 0420 -081 -229 106023 024 021 002 00
030330 2406N 08903W 4452 06842 0420 -083 -224 110024 024 025 001 00
030400 2407N 08901W 4451 06842 0420 -083 -294 113025 025 025 001 00
030430 2408N 08858W 4451 06844 0420 -084 -273 117024 025 025 001 00
030500 2409N 08856W 4451 06843 0420 -087 -210 114023 023 024 001 00
030530 2411N 08853W 4451 06843 0420 -084 -215 114021 022 025 001 00
030600 2412N 08851W 4451 06844 0421 -083 -295 111020 020 024 001 00
030630 2413N 08848W 4450 06845 0421 -082 -355 107020 020 024 001 00
030700 2414N 08845W 4450 06846 0422 -082 -334 107019 020 022 001 00
030730 2415N 08843W 4451 06846 0423 -082 -320 105018 019 021 001 00
030800 2416N 08840W 4451 06847 0424 -083 -325 108019 020 022 001 00
030830 2418N 08838W 4450 06847 0423 -085 -333 112021 021 021 001 00
030900 2419N 08835W 4451 06846 0423 -086 -347 116022 023 020 001 00
030930 2420N 08832W 4450 06847 0423 -086 -346 117022 023 021 001 00
031000 2421N 08830W 4448 06850 0423 -085 -348 114022 023 020 001 00
031030 2422N 08827W 4452 06845 0425 -085 -353 115023 023 019 000 00

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Latest advisory.

10:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 8
Location: 20.3°N 91.3°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

I was thinking there was no way this could increase 35mph in 24 hours, now I'm thinking

it could go higher.

its easy to see you are a women,changing your mind at the last minute .

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090314
AF304 0307A FRANKLIN HDOB 43 20170809
030400 1943N 09201W 6963 03147 0057 +082 +028 325016 019 032 006 00
030430 1945N 09159W 6968 03138 0036 +097 +025 323015 015 030 004 00
030500 1946N 09158W 6966 03142 0036 +098 +023 320015 015 024 001 00
030530 1947N 09157W 6966 03141 0035 +100 +022 322015 016 023 000 00
030600 1947N 09157W 6966 03141 0035 +100 +023 320016 017 023 000 00
030630 1950N 09154W 6970 03140 0032 +100 +024 317017 017 023 000 00
030700 1951N 09153W 6966 03142 0029 +104 +025 315018 018 022 000 00
030730 1952N 09152W 6966 03141 0029 +103 +027 316018 018 022 000 00
030800 1953N 09150W 6970 03135 0028 +101 +028 315017 018 025 003 00
030830 1954N 09149W 6963 03142 0021 +105 +029 313014 016 025 002 00
030900 1956N 09148W 6965 03137 0016 +108 +030 308015 016 022 000 00
030930 1957N 09147W 6968 03134 0015 +109 +032 312016 016 020 000 00
031000 1958N 09145W 6965 03135 0009 +111 +033 310016 016 024 001 00
031030 1959N 09144W 6971 03126 0007 +110 +034 311017 018 022 000 00
031100 2001N 09143W 6965 03132 0010 +108 +035 309017 017 025 000 03
031130 2002N 09141W 6967 03129 0012 +105 +036 312015 017 025 000 00
031200 2003N 09140W 6969 03125 0006 +109 +037 311012 014 023 000 00
031230 2004N 09139W 6962 03134 0009 +106 +037 305012 013 024 002 00
031300 2006N 09137W 6966 03126 0012 +101 +037 313010 013 025 002 00
031330 2007N 09136W 6966 03124 0015 +096 +034 297010 011 026 003 00
$$

[weathaguyry]

I am going to bed now, and I know that I may very well wake up to a developing Cat 1 Hurricane

[stormreader]

reading some of the Karl advisories, NHC was forecasting a cat 1 into Tuxpan. Instead, it was a cat 3 that narrowly missed Veracruz

Hope this does not do the same as Veracruz is heavily populated

I believe the advisory did mention a possible south of west motion as it approached the coast. Could take it near the area you're talking about. Don't know, but sometimes a south of west course also means some slowing of forward progress. Perhaps not likely here, but I have seen that happen.

[txwatcher91]

I am going to bed now, and I know that I may very well wake up to a developing Cat 1 Hurricane

It may be a cat 1 by morning at the pace it appears to be deepening. RI is underway imo.