ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

I would have gone 155 mph, noting THAT may be conservative, with its look and raw ADT numbers.

Also, it's slightly frustrating we're flying the HH more frequently into that hideous blob with an exposed center in the West Atlantic than Maria.

since we'll have a plane in there soon, we can afford to wait for recon

[dukeblue219]

Also, it's slightly frustrating we're flying the HH more frequently into that hideous blob with an exposed center in the West Atlantic than Maria.

I agree, but I would imagine it could have something to do with where the planes are stationed. Wouldn't it take time to get more planes down to the Caribbean to be able to fly them more frequently? Especially since this hurricane developed so rapidly, and the Hurricane Hunters have been extremely active lately.

Just a guess though, I might be wrong with that, but it makes sense in my head.

NOAA42 (Kermit) was scheduled for a Jose flight this afternoon and tomorrow morning that were cancelled. They are not on tomorrow schedule to fly anywhere. I wonder if anyone knows if they are taking a day off or just repositioning?

4. REMARKS:
A. THE G-IV 18/1730Z MISSION WILL NOT FLY.
B. P-3 MISSIONS FOR 18/20Z AND 19/08Z ARE CANCELED.

[Alyono]

Also, it's slightly frustrating we're flying the HH more frequently into that hideous blob with an exposed center in the West Atlantic than Maria.

I agree, but I would imagine it could have something to do with where the planes are stationed. Wouldn't it take time to get more planes down to the Caribbean to be able to fly them more frequently? Especially since this hurricane developed so rapidly, and the Hurricane Hunters have been extremely active lately.

Just a guess though, I might be wrong with that, but it makes sense in my head.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2 ... 182101.txt
They appear ready for takeoff

3 hrly fixes are reserved for imminent US threats. They begin tomorrow

[artist]

I agree, but I would imagine it could have something to do with where the planes are stationed. Wouldn't it take time to get more planes down to the Caribbean to be able to fly them more frequently? Especially since this hurricane developed so rapidly, and the Hurricane Hunters have been extremely active lately.

Just a guess though, I might be wrong with that, but it makes sense in my head.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2 ... 182101.txt
They appear ready for takeoff

States obs 1 for Maria

3 hrly fixes are reserved for imminent US threats. They begin tomorrow

[Ken711]

If it follows Jose's track north (minus the loop), could water the temps and shear it would face provide an environment for a possible decrease in intensity?

No, whatever water Jose up welled has been replaced by now.

So then we are potentially looking at a 3rd major hurricane landfall in the CONUS this season, not good.

[OntarioEggplant]

Raw T# up to 7.1

[RL3AO]

I would have gone 155 mph, noting THAT may be conservative, with its look and raw ADT numbers.

Also, it's slightly frustrating we're flying the HH more frequently into that hideous blob with an exposed center in the West Atlantic than Maria.

since we'll have a plane in there soon, we can afford to wait for recon

Of course, if NHC called this a 130kt hurricane at 5pm, it's not like Dominica would have changed plans. I just think it was an example of NHC being too conservative without recon.

[SunnyThoughts]

Raw T# up to 7.1

Anyone remember what the raw t# was for Irma when she was at her peak intensity?

[blazess556]

This is one of the most impressive eyewall signatures I have seen not utilizing NEXRAD.



https://www.flickr.com/photos/143166012@N04/37169400731

[tolakram]

IR LOOP

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-13-96-1-100

SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=966&y=1065&z=1&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[RL3AO]

Looks like the eye will pass directly over Dominica.

[supercane4867]

Maria is clearly still rapidly intensifying as she flaring up -80C cloud tops on CDO in the latest frame.

This maybe only the beginning of the show tonight.

[BYG Jacob]

If it follows Jose's track north (minus the loop), could water the temps and shear it would face provide an environment for a possible decrease in intensity?

No, whatever water Jose up welled has been replaced by now.

So then we are potentially looking at a 3rd major hurricane landfall in the CONUS this season, not good.

Potentially, depends on how much of her core goes over PR or the DR

[ronyan]

We may be looking at another category 5 landfall in the basin within hours, this has been quite a bad season to this point.

[Dean4Storms]

Think this current Recon mission will be one to remember. Looks like a Cat. 5 already on satellite and you know that small eye must have a heck of a stadium effect.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/status/909884905118715905




NASA SPoRT ✔ @NASA_SPoRT
#Maria now a very dangerous Cat 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 130 MPH and an open eye. Approaching #Dominica. 1-hr #GOES16 meso vis.
5:00 PM - Sep 18, 2017

[Alyono]

west wobble means Roseau may again look like it was hit by an air raid

[johngaltfla]

Looks like the eye will pass directly over Dominica.

That is just so sad. This is the most depressing hurricane season since 04-05.

[CrazyC83]

I think they expect an intensity upgrade when Recon comes back, but wanted to not play it too aggressively.

There will likely be a Special Advisory at 8 pm, where the intensity and forecast will probably increase greatly.

[Hurricane Andrew]

This is like watching a slow-motion horror movie. Definitely bringing flashbacks of '08 in terms of big storm after big storm after big storm.