ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Big Easy Breeze]

Um, it just took a wobble north, or am I seeing things?

No, definite wobble north. Latest frame in on this loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Don't use the satellite for movement, when recon is reporting movement...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

And now we find ourselves in another debate just like yesterday. 24 hours ago, it was all about the EWRC, now it's all about Cuba.

The CUBA interaction is a real legit debate. The longer is stays there, could lend itself to track and intensity implications down the road....or not. We'll just have to wait and see tonight.

This storm came from jupiter or something. its seems different in alot of ways intesity wise than what we have seen in past. Category 5's should not last that long.

[johngaltfla]

Um, it just took a wobble north, or am I seeing things?

No, definite wobble north. Latest frame in on this loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Miami now if true:

[znel52]

I know it must to be some illusion or something but it looks like it bounced off of Cuba like a rubber ball lol.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Aric Dunn]

You can c;early see it was/has some southerly component to it's movement west. Hold a pen on the start of the loop. Then watch as the loop advances. You can see there is a southerly component. You can also simply look at the latitude markers and see it has moved about .2 south.

Please when there is recon flying.. dont use satellite for motion ! recon does not lie.. thank you

Very well, recon doesn't lie. Here are the last two recon fixes. South of due west.

thank you.. west it is

[NWgeorgiastormdawg]

Cat 5. 160mph at 11

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Standard wobble folks. It wobbled south a few frames ago, what do you know it wobbled back north! Im not saying its started its move yet. I hope not, needs to hang out by Cuba for a bit.

[Big Easy Breeze]

You can c;early see it was/has some southerly component to it's movement west. Hold a pen on the start of the loop. Then watch as the loop advances. You can see there is a southerly component. You can also simply look at the latitude markers and see it has moved about .2 south.

Please when there is recon flying.. dont use satellite for motion ! recon does not lie.. thank you

Very well, recon doesn't lie. Here are the last two recon fixes. South of due west.

I don't know what I am talking about whatsoever...

[znel52]

Back to Cat 5 160mph

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm thinking a solid Cat 3 when it comes ashore in Florida. I'm thinking that between the eye wall replacement cycle, and the fact that it appears to be going deeper into Cuba, then previously thought, I think it will drop down to Cat 3. I think the NHC should still predict a Cat 4 though, just to make sure people take it seriously.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

the first bands should be approaching the coastline it looks like in the next 2-3 hours.

[AutoPenalti]

Reminds me of Matthew down by the coast of Colombia.

[Michele B]

Um, it just took a wobble north, or am I seeing things?

No, definite wobble north. Latest frame in on this loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Yes, looks like it to me, too!

Like a pinball, bouncing off land masses! It did this once before, I noticed, on one of the little islands it almost brushed against. Sort of "bounced" off it!

She hates land! She sure isn't going to like landing in FL!!

[Big Easy Breeze]

Moving west at 13, 160 mph winds. CAT 5. Speed picked up 1 mph.

[PTPatrick]

FWIW, theres major troughiness in the eastern US. Frost adisories in the great lakes...lows in the 50s in mobile. Very unseasonable. I grew up in MObile and its fairly rare for it to even start to feel crisp in the morning until sometime in early October

[johnbasham]

Recon Aircraft don't "LIE" but they don't always "tell the truth". That Dropsonde is a SINGLE snapshot at a single moment in the storm (at a single location). The new GOES 1 Minute sweeps HELP us better understand what they RECON is seeing, but what may appear as a drop to the south can be a simple wobble, eyewall replacement cycle beginning, or just an anomaly. Look when you have a CATEGORY 5 Hurricane with winds at 200 MPH in multiple levels of the storm, it kind of makes its own rules. Stop trying to read into SMALL (comparatively) shifts in this monster and watch the overall trend. The Ridge WILL turn the storm. How well the models handle it truly makes NO DIFFERENCE at this point. It will do damage. It will be catastrophic to the Florida Keys. It will effect Florida. It will produce untold damage across the Southeast United States. The eye, is just the eye. Look at the wind fields and where they build and fall. That is what tells the real story of a hurricane. But thats just my humble opinion. JB

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Very well, recon doesn't lie. Here are the last two recon fixes. South of due west.

I don't know what I am talking about whatsoever...

Swamp gas man. Cant happen cause nobody agreed with you

[Aric Dunn]

Please when there is recon flying.. dont use satellite for motion ! recon does not lie.. thank you

Very well, recon doesn't lie. Here are the last two recon fixes. South of due west.

[img]https://s26.postimg.org/3vbdp9bah/irma.png[/ig]

I don't know what I am talking about whatsoever...

your loop images are farther apart than the recon..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Reminds me of Matthew down by the coast of Colombia.

Same thing here. Except that it was a stronger storm before the turn... but would it?

[nascarfan999]

You can c;early see it was/has some southerly component to it's movement west. Hold a pen on the start of the loop. Then watch as the loop advances. You can see there is a southerly component. You can also simply look at the latitude markers and see it has moved about .2 south.

Please when there is recon flying.. dont use satellite for motion ! recon does not lie.. thank you

Very well, recon doesn't lie. Here are the last two recon fixes. South of due west.

Another view of it, taking the TT map and putting it into MS Paint. I then drew a black box along the latitude line. Comparing the top line of the box to the recon line confirms that the movement has a south component to it.