ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jasons2k]

Looks she's stalling and starting to feel the influence now:

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[jasons2k]

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

I'd say she's slowed since that was typed

Edit to add: 280 degrees is a tick north of due west

[ava_ati]

11pm NHC advisory shifts it west again. If this thing makes it to the gulf we are all in deep.

[AutoPenalti]

Steering collapsed here, looks like it's about to round the ridge, these are the most crucial moments.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm surprised Jim Cantore isn't broadcasting live on the weather channel for this storm. Maybe he decided to take this storm off. He's probably exhausted from Harvey

[tallywx]

Please when there is recon flying.. dont use satellite for motion ! recon does not lie.. thank you

Very well, recon doesn't lie. Here are the last two recon fixes. South of due west.

Another view of it, taking the TT map and putting it into MS Paint. I then drew a black box along the latitude line. Comparing the top line of the box to the recon line confirms that the movement has a south component to it.

Recon just flew through the center again. I drew a white circle at the location of the wind shift. South of west yet again. We'll see if the new fix confirms.

[Bamagirl2408]

Is it slowing or speeding up? All posts indicate slowing and wobvles north but advisory coordinates is a loss in latitude slightly and picked up 1mph #confused.

[johngaltfla]

11pm NHC advisory shifts it west again. If this thing makes it to the gulf we are all in deep.

If it passes over the Western Florida Keys or Key West then into Florida Bay, everyone from Naples to north of Tampa is in big trouble. Including moi.

[eastcoastFL]

I believe the nhc typed their disco before she hit the breaks. I think she's going to start turning soon. Just my amatuer opinion though.

[tolakram]

And now we find ourselves in another debate just like yesterday. 24 hours ago, it was all about the EWRC, now it's all about Cuba.

Got water - check
Got gas - check
House boarded - check
Got people & pet Food - check
Tarps, rope, duct tape - check
Yard cleared of debris - check
All preps completed - check
Ready to take on Irma - check

Sounds like nothing left TO DO but debate!!!!!!

Chat room! http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=111692

[FLpanhandle91]

Recon Aircraft don't "LIE" but they don't always "tell the truth". That Dropsonde is a SINGLE snapshot at a single moment in the storm (at a single location). The new GOES 1 Minute sweeps HELP us better understand what they RECON is seeing, but what may appear as a drop to the south can be a simple wobble, eyewall replacement cycle beginning, or just an anomaly. Look when you have a CATEGORY 5 Hurricane with winds at 200 MPH in multiple levels of the storm, it kind of makes its own rules. Stop trying to read into SMALL (comparatively) shifts in this monster and watch the overall trend. The Ridge WILL turn the storm. How well the models handle it truly makes NO DIFFERENCE at this point. It will do damage. It will be catastrophic to the Florida Keys. It will effect Florida. It will produce untold damage across the Southeast United States. The eye, is just the eye. Look at the wind fields and where they build and fall. That is what tells the real story of a hurricane. But thats just my humble opinion. JB

Soooo... what should we talk about then?

[Big Easy Breeze]

Look, tropical weather is not an exact science, as far as how tropical systems will move, or where exactly they will move. Intensity forecasting just the same. The most intelligent professionals will even tell you that. Look at Jose. The intensity and track if Jose is getting lost with the proximity Irma to the U.S. coast line. Jose has been doing things unexpected. Expect change and unpredictable movement and intensity fluctuations.

[gatorcane]

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

I'd say she's slowed since that was typed

Agreed not sure where they get that speed from unless they are not counting the last couple of hours.

[BYG Jacob]

I'm thinking a solid Cat 3 when it comes ashore in Florida. I'm thinking that between the eye wall replacement cycle, and the fact that it appears to be going deeper into Cuba, then previously thought, I think it will drop down to Cat 3. I think the NHC should still predict a Cat 4 though, just to make sure people take it seriously.

There is no sign of an EWRC, and its now moving away from Cuba.

[SunnyThoughts]

Looks she's stalling and starting to feel the influence now:

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

I read the discussion from Nhc. Says n w turn should happen late on Saturday. So it is suppose to just keep heading west for 24 more hours?

[pcolaman]

Did they make the cone wider all the way from the bottom to the top or is it just me?

[tolakram]

Look, tropical weather is not an exact science, as far as how tropical systems will move, or where exactly they will move. Intensity forecasting just the same. The most intelligent professionals will even tell you that. Look at Jose. The intensity and track if Jose is getting lost with the proximity Irma to the U.S. coast line. Jose has been doing things unexpected. Expect change and unpredictable movement and intensity fluctuations.

Track forecasting is pretty darn god, it's not a mystery. Intensity ... not so good.

[SunnyThoughts]

Did they make the cone wider all the way from the bottom to the top or is it just me?

Haven't seen cone yet.

[Steve]

Agree there is some disagreement. Regardless of paint on a satellite, the recon will have the exact coordinates. I can't read that small on the map and didn't feel like copying and pasting it in. NHC measures motion over so many hours of time. So while something may temporarily be south of a prior recon pass, the general motion is going to be what they say it is. Yeah, it's tied up in those northern Cuban islands and reefs, but I recommend continued observation. We're within a half day of initial impacts and then it's gonna get real bad. That's the simplest way to put what's unfolding. Tomorrow's visibles should bring it all into perspective for anyone doubting Irma.

[Bamagirl2408]

Did they make the cone wider all the way from the bottom to the top or is it just me?

What I thougjt I saw was Tallahassee in it (or maybe already was) and Miami maybe barely in?