ATL: IRMA - Models

[Jevo]

12z GFS @ +36 looks a tad south and slower... That could be what the NAM was hinting at with the ridge building back in.. Granted never look to the NAM for storm position, but for synoptics it's a rock star out 72 hours.

[gatorcane]

[chris_fit]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/eJwbnzu.gif

Look at Jose There - Hitting Same Island as Irma

[gtalum]

11 AM NHC forecast track seems to be slightly further east than 5 AM.

It's about 7 miles further to the east at around 72 hours than the 5 am forecast. Inconsequential at 3 days out.

I agree it's not much, and it's early. I was just surprised to see them move the forecast east when the models seem to be shifting west.

[gatorcane]

[SouthDadeFish]

12z GFS @ +36 looks a tad south and slower... That could be what the NAM was hinting at with the ridge building back in.. Granted never look to the NAM for storm position, but for synoptics it's a rock star out 72 hours.

I wouldn't call the NAM a rock star at anything other than making the most epic soundings in severe weather outbreaks.

[gtalum]

12z GFS @ +36 looks a tad south and slower... That could be what the NAM was hinting at with the ridge building back in.. Granted never look to the NAM for storm position, but for synoptics it's a rock star out 72 hours.

On the other hand 12z is slightly east of 06z at 60 hours. Go figure.

[gatorcane]

[Steve]

66 hours and coming up to metro Miami from the SE. Looks like GFS will be either be short on land or do a brush-by. Thing is, it's moving closer to its ensembles and the SE Tip of FL. It may be still too far east, as it's too early to tell. But look at that 907mb pressure which will wreck Miami.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0712&fh=66

[NDG]

Sunday morning's position at 12z (72 hrs) of Irma is slightly more to the left than previous runs.

[gatorcane]

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=513

Focus on the upper pattern near Long Island, NY. You will see that compared to the previous run, the trough is smaller and farther east. This follows the NAM. Whether it will continue to show stronger high pressure and a weaker trough or not remains to be seen. But if it does, expect that it will correct a little more west.

[NDG]

At 78 hrs is 15-20 hrs east of W Palm Beach, a slight shift to the left from previous 06z run.

[MatthewsRevenge]

GFS is pushing slightly west on this run than on 06z GFS.

[miamijaaz]

It will be interesting to see the ensembles, particularly if even more end up on the west coast.

[NDG]

At 90 hrs is 45-50 east of New Smyrna/Daytona Beach. A good 40-50 shift to the west at this position from previous 06z run.

[DESTRUCTION5]

At 90 hrs is 45-50 east of New Smyrna/Daytona Beach. A good 40-50 shift to the west at this position from previous 06z run.

24 hrs to traverse the FL coastline. Yuck

[gatorcane]

[NDG]

Landfall Savannah GA on this run.

[gatorcane]