ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sbcc]

Thanks but.....

I already tried your first link. Here is my call for one tile (using that url) in the Tampa area where lots of FEMA shelters are open.

https://services.femadata.com/arcgis/re ... 6094777816

That call produces a gray tile with no shelter symbology.

Your first link is to a MapServer layer. Your second link refers to a FeatureServer layer.

I clicked your second link. That link does not display any open FEMA shelters in FL. Does that link work differently for you?

I see the same thing you do at the second link. Florida is blank. I don't know anything about GIS data or mapping, just found the links searching. Sorry if it's a dead end.

[tolakram]

I just dont see this maintaining for 24 hours sitting mostly over cuba as some of the models say. if the core collapses there is unlikely enough time to start all over building a core before landfall and shear... does not mean it will not be a dangerous hurricane. just saying that is a lot of land to transverse all the while keeping a solid structure. now if it wobbles a little more offshore then game on.. but as is just dont see it.. of course anything is possible.. but does not means its likely..

Bounced.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-1-100

Speed it up.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I just dont see this maintaining for 24 hours sitting mostly over cuba as some of the models say. if the core collapses there is unlikely enough time to start all over building a core before landfall and shear... does not mean it will not be a dangerous hurricane. just saying that is a lot of land to transverse all the while keeping a solid structure. now if it wobbles a little more offshore then game on.. but as is just dont see it.. of course anything is possible.. but does not means its likely..

Bounced.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-1-100

Speed it up.

It literally bounced. HOW?!

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/906366449807237120




Stu Ostro ✔ @StuOstro
#Irma hitting Cuba; land temporary inhibitor to core, but storm starting to tap outflow channel to N w/mid-lat. jet, facilitating strength
11:59 PM - Sep 8, 2017

[Sciencerocks]

What cities is it affecting along the northern coast of Cuba?

[bonjourno]

I just dont see this maintaining for 24 hours sitting mostly over cuba as some of the models say. if the core collapses there is unlikely enough time to start all over building a core before landfall and shear... does not mean it will not be a dangerous hurricane. just saying that is a lot of land to transverse all the while keeping a solid structure. now if it wobbles a little more offshore then game on.. but as is just dont see it.. of course anything is possible.. but does not means its likely..

Bounced.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-1-100

Speed it up.

Looks like the center of it is pulsing, like a beating heart. Creepy.

[craptacular]

Finally the third one comes after an hour ... decoded version not yet available, so here is raw:

URNT12 KNHC 090352
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 09/02:51:00Z
B. 22 deg 06 min N
077 deg 43 min W
C. 700 mb 2462 m
D. 107 kt
E. 303 deg 15 nm
F. 038 deg 123 kt
G. 306 deg 22 nm
H. EXTRAP 924 mb
I. 9 C / 3053 m
J. 18 C / 3067 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF308 2411A IRMA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 128 KT 060 / 26 NM 01:30:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

1 minute south, 11 minutes west in 1:15 between center fixes.

[AtlanticWind]

I just dont see this maintaining for 24 hours sitting mostly over cuba as some of the models say. if the core collapses there is unlikely enough time to start all over building a core before landfall and shear... does not mean it will not be a dangerous hurricane. just saying that is a lot of land to transverse all the while keeping a solid structure. now if it wobbles a little more offshore then game on.. but as is just dont see it.. of course anything is possible.. but does not means its likely..

Bounced.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-1-100

Speed it up.

It literally bounced. HOW?!

Starting it's turn maybe

[Zarniwoop]

I just dont see this maintaining for 24 hours sitting mostly over cuba as some of the models say. if the core collapses there is unlikely enough time to start all over building a core before landfall and shear... does not mean it will not be a dangerous hurricane. just saying that is a lot of land to transverse all the while keeping a solid structure. now if it wobbles a little more offshore then game on.. but as is just dont see it.. of course anything is possible.. but does not means its likely..

Bounced.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-1-100

Speed it up.

It literally bounced. HOW?!

That's the damnedest thing I've ever seen.

Gonna hit Cuba.... PSYCHE!

[HDGator]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/906366449807237120




Stu Ostro ✔ @StuOstro
#Irma hitting Cuba; land temporary inhibitor to core, but storm starting to tap outflow channel to N w/mid-lat. jet, facilitating strength
11:59 PM - Sep 8, 2017

This looks like we're getting ready to cross the streams ala ghostbusters. This will not turn out well.

[jasons2k]

New GFS came in with a east shift. That may be the end of the westward trend and we may see a correction back east. Euro will be telling....

[norva]

Irma is taunting us. Ugh, just come all ready this is so stressful just waiting and wondering what we'll get. Get it over with

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/906366449807237120




Stu Ostro ✔ @StuOstro
#Irma hitting Cuba; land temporary inhibitor to core, but storm starting to tap outflow channel to N w/mid-lat. jet, facilitating strength
11:59 PM - Sep 8, 2017

Irma's current and evolving presentation is probably very similar to how Donna looked as it began curving toward the Keys, also while under the influence of an upper-level trough. Donna also intensified over the Gulf Stream on its approach to the Keys, its eye contracting and its winds increasing. In fact, the winds accelerated at least ten to fifteen knots (ten to twenty mph), from 105 or 110 knots (120 to 125 mph) to 125 knots (145 mph) by the time of landfall on the middle Keys. Irma will be affecting the lower Keys, most probably, as well as the same Everglades Donna struck, perhaps in the very same Marco Island vicinity, but the setup is similar in at least the respect mentioned previously. There is a good opportunity for Irma to reach Katrina-like intensity, with a pressure in the 900-910 mb range and winds of 150 to 155 knots (175 to 180 mph), as it nears the Florida coast and makes landfall, with weakening ensuing as the eye moves inland over the mainland. Given ideal conditions up through landfall, and the probability of limited interaction with Cuba, such a prospect is certainly within reach. A reasonable estimate would be a landfall intensity of 145 to 150 knots (165 to 175 mph) and the pressure range described.

[Aric Dunn]

land interaction has begun to disrupt the core.. the eye has started to shrink even more .. if the core collapses it will take much longer to strengthen once away from land.

[Evil Jeremy]

land interaction has begun to disrupt the core.. the eye has started to shrink even more .. if the core collapses it will take much longer to strengthen once away from land.

And how does that affect the potential track?

[Aric Dunn]

side note.. first real outer band about to come ashore in south florida.. doppler velicities showing 60kts in some of those cells.

[Aric Dunn]

land interaction has begun to disrupt the core.. the eye has started to shrink even more .. if the core collapses it will take much longer to strengthen once away from land.

And how does that affect the potential track?

track not so much ..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The trends may be ending soon and within the next few hours we may see the tracks stabilizing and as time passes by, we would have an idea on where this would hit, and regardless of where the impacts would be significant and potentially catastrophic. Worried if the track shifts east again, my uncle sadly is staying in Port St Lucie so I hope he rides this out safely. Btw, this is (again) my first time closely monitoring an Atlantic hurricane ever. Not too long ago (Sep 3) I had been calling for a Donna repeat and unfortunately this is very close to that, and I hope an ERC would take place but the waters over the Florida Straits are warmer than those of my current location more than twice as close to the equator. I hope the surge wouldn't be bad as well, it's the number one killer in storms

[FLpanhandle91]

land interaction has begun to disrupt the core.. the eye has started to shrink even more .. if the core collapses it will take much longer to strengthen once away from land.

I do not think the structure of the core was affected too much outside of IR presentation. I'd need to see a microwave run, but I believe it's moving away from Cuba just in time for strengthening to happen .

[Aric Dunn]

land interaction has begun to disrupt the core.. the eye has started to shrink even more .. if the core collapses it will take much longer to strengthen once away from land.

I do not think the structure of the core was affected too much outside of IR presentation. I'd need to see a microwave run, but I believe it's moving away from Cuba just in time for strengthening to happen .

your IR is directly related to the structure sense its part of the structure..

you radar..dont need microwave